Helima

There was a lot of misguided talk on here yesterday about "de-escalation" around energy targets. In reality Iran will keep up its daily attacks on energy, just with drones instead of ballistic missiles see also: multiple waves of drones launched at eastern Saudi overnight

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (@AP) — #Kuwait says its Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery again hit in Iranian drone attacks, starting a fire at some its units.

WSJ: Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil if Energy Shock Persists Past April The base case, several oil officials in the Gulf's biggest producer said, is that prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April. Saudi Arabian light crude is already being sold to Asian buyers via its Red Sea port for around $125 a barrel. As extra oil in storage -- some of which was shipped out of the Gulf ahead of the war -- is used up, physical shortages will bite more deeply next week, causing prices to close in on $138 to $140, the officials said.

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“It takes two to TACO, and the reality is the Iranians also have a say in when this war ends…” @CroftHelima on @CNBCClosingBell This is a good point that a lot of people miss. The classical TACO playbook doesn’t really work here

Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, joined the One Decision Podcast to discuss the latest on the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Listen as they explore what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and more. spr.ly/6016B6nbtC

Full readout of Trump admin’s mtg with oil executives: - Oil execs asked about chances of crude oil ban, Burgum said definitively ‘no’ - On permitting reform, admin said it’s a priority. Discussions happening with D’s and R’s now. Both sides more optimistic lately. WH going to keep pushing for changes, framing them as essential to building out energy infrastructure, particularly projects needed to support power generation. - Oil execs also expressed support for admin’s 60-day Jones Act waiver politico.com/news/2026/03/1…

IEA breakdown of emergency stock releases 👇#OOTT

No export ban “for now” #OOTT

Dubai crude has just reached $170/bbl

NEW: The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA - REUTERS

On Yanbu (Red Sea) port (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Aramco briefly halted crude loadings at the crucial port of Yanbu on the Red Sea on Thursday after an Iranian attack in the vicinity, before resuming, according to people familiar with the matter. Yanbu has emerged as a vital logistics hub as the kingdom’s only remaining export route to global markets as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANAIN OIL THAT'S ON WATER BESSENT: WHEN WE UNSANCTION IRAN OIL, CAN GO TO EX-CHINA PLACES So we can see the regime selling oil legally at a much higher price?

Official confirmation that a drone crash in a refinery in Yanbu - Iran is attacking energy facilities along the Red Sea coast

Kuwait's Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi refineries both suffered drone strikes earlier today. Kuwait confirms small fires at both #OOTT

Deleting the below tweet(s) Despite the *unconfirmed*, too many running with it as fact, and was increasingly uncomfortable keeping it up No other confirmations yet (or official denials, which is also weird) but after this long you’d expect more if it were real

🚩 Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Group CEO of Adnoc has posted on LinkedIn describing the attacks as “global economic warfare” and a weaponisation of energy flows “Attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure must stop”

There has been no stop to the loadings from the port in Yanbu Saudi Arabia #OOTT

The only infographic you need on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.