Cub40
42 posts


@neural_theory @DarioCpx Especially when the UK is now the number one (or two?) holder of UST
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@DarioCpx Yes, I know. But given the insults, why would anyone prop-up the US debt system after that. Fuel is the sideshow, debt is what Trump and Bessant need to be selling
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Here you go folks. Message to US allies: “Buy from the US”
Fair question: at what price? 🤔

JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
According to my calculations the 8th of April is when crude oil shortages become acute in Europe - just a fyi
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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

Today ANZ's Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level ever in more than 50 years of data.
There was commentary prior to the war that this was not representative of the experience of households, I vehemently disagreed.
The data from CBA tells the tale, even prior to the war real per capita spending was falling significantly.
And this had been happening for years.
Households have been absolutely bushwhacked by inflation and a poorly performing real economy.
Now the age of upheaval is upon us and things have worsened still.
Amidst this extremely challenging environment it is crazy not to cut migration into a huge economic shock, but if that is removed you are left with a consumer economy that was already contracting even before the war.
Reality is coming home to roost for Australia.
Chart: ANZ

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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

Australia might still be the world's best place to live but we're letting ourselves down big time. Four weeks into the Iran war: 10% of our servos wholly or partially out of fuel. 30% of farmers worried they lack the diesel to sow or harvest their crops. Flights being cancelled.
No Australian-flagged fleet of tankers that could be tasked with a fuel rescue mission; with no naval ships capable of helping to break any Iranian blockade; and with no Australian air power yet despatched to the Middle East to help the US-Israel campaign against an apocalyptic theocracy, even though the Straits will never be secure while it lasts.
Successive governments convinced themselves that an 'unstoppable green energy transition' meant access to fossil fuels was neither necessary nor desirable. That was always a fantasy, and now we're paying the price. Fossil fuels are still responsible for 90% of our energy needs.
The Bondi massacre was a wake up call on social cohesion. The Iran war is a wake up call on national resilience. Dealing with both means recovering the self-belief needed for Australia to stay Australian.
Time to face facts on energy. Read my latest at The Tony Abbott Newsletter: tonyabbott.au/p/fuel-insecur…

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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

$GGP's Dec 2025 Group MRE with Telfer-Havieron growing to 14.9Moz Au through Telfer increasing to 8.0Moz (+150%). A maiden 70Mt O’Callaghans tungsten resource confirms it as a globally strategic asset.
Group MRE: bit.ly/4lZ8AxG
O’Callaghans MRE: bit.ly/4bRjT6m

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@ScottNorth64736 @Mining_Hub_ should continue. many parallels with NMG. $VAL appears cheaper at the same stage to $NMG on an EV/oz valuation
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@Cub40542 @Mining_Hub_ Do you think it will continue and why?
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Crazy week on the ASX, did you have any winners? Thanks to @Mining_Hub_ for the data.
$KLI $SRL $ELV $BHL $SQX $LSA $FXG $BTL $LTR $PLS
kamoacap.com




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Today we released our Sentiment Tracker, which tracks thousands of data points each week and is updated every 24 hours in our Morning Drill Down email.
And judging by the market this morning, the data looks spot on.
Subscribe now: news.kamoacap.com

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Telfer Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) rose by 4.8Moz to 8.0Moz (+150%) at a discovery cost of $5/oz
Not a good start to the day if you believed Seneca Australian Shares Fund narrative for the last two years.
fool.com.au/2026/03/30/gre…
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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

Gold just replayed its 1971–1973 move, including the first big correction.
After peaking in ’73, it soared another 7x over the next 7 years, enduring brutal pullbacks of 29%, 24%, 45%, and 20% along the way.
This bull market will rhyme with the 1970s: sharp drawdowns, but much bigger upside ahead.
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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

Gold sold off as rates moved higher. In a pure market, Gold signals deflationary crash as the US, with $38 trillion in debt, moves closer to bankruptcy. But we have the Fed that is there to pump the bubble higher. Inflation is the only way out. Look for Fed action QEIV to manage yields lower and blow out the Fed's balance sheet pushing Gold to the inverse of the reciprocal of USD worth 0.

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Cub40 รีทวีตแล้ว

@Bricktop_NAFO The only wounds you have are the callouses in the palm of your hand
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Today I called on Jim Chalmers, the nation's Treasurer, to resign because he has overseen the biggest blowout in Australian Government spending on record and it is not even close.
The Government's latest budget data shows that in just 6 months, spending blew out by an unbelievable $50 billion. That is a cost blowout rate of more than $200 million per day.
This crazy level of government spending is why interest rates have gone up today.
Not only is this the biggest cost blowout on record. It follows previous records under Jim last financial year. There has never been a period of economic mismanagement like this. It is off the charts.
If Jim Chalmers had presided over $100 billion in cost blowouts in a private company he would be sacked. Why aren't the same standards applied to the people we pay for in the public sector?
(Chart thanks to the @FinancialReview)

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@JEChalmers How about running a balanced budget and stop blaming others, the buck stops with you
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Today the independent Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board increased the cash rate by 25 basis points.
This will be difficult news for millions of Australians with a mortgage and we understand the pressure that this will put on families and businesses.
While today’s decision was widely expected, that doesn’t make it any easier.
We know many Australians are doing it tough which is why we continue to roll out responsible cost of living relief, including a further tax cut later this year and another one next year.
At the same time we’re doing what we can to strengthen the budget and address our longstanding productivity challenge.
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🤡🤡🤡Clowns in America. CME Comex $38 USD below Shanghai and $29 below India.
Taking advantage of the Chinese New Year holiday to slam and cover shorts.
While Australia's Perth Mint has suspended all silver sales. 🤡🤡🤡

The Silver Baron@WVerily
Spot right now in India and Shanghai. Comex (CME) and LBMA are a joke 🤡
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