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Darnley Howard
4.9K posts
Darnley Howard
@Darnleyh
Consultant, researcher, analyst, tennis player, skier interested in innovative businesses and emerging markets in Africa and the Americas.
Washington, DC เข้าร่วม Mart 2009
2.1K กำลังติดตาม899 ผู้ติดตาม
Insurgent Offensive in #Mali Exposes the Deficiencies of Junta-led Security in the #Sahel at justsecurity.org/137563/mali-ju… #AES
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Darnley Howard รีทวีตแล้ว
🚨🚨 🧵 The UAE has announced it will leave OPEC May 1st. My initial impression is this isn’t just about energy and market share. It’s about geopolitical realignment. A thread on what might have actually drove this decision, and why it matters.
1. The UAE’s exit has three distinct drivers: military, strategic realignment toward the US, and economic ambition. They reinforce each other.
2. The Iran war saw the UAE absorb more punishment from Iran than even Israel. Most of Iran’s missiles and drones were directed toward the GCC.
3. The countries that aided the UAE during the conflict were Israel, the US, the UK, Italy and South Korea (mostly Western countries)
4. The fact that the Gulf countries were somewhat divided on how to respond to the conflict both diplomatically and militarily is important in the overall context of this decision.
5. Oman, Qatar and KSA were quietly looking for diplomatic off ramps. The UAE, being the primary target of Iranian drones and missiles wanted a much more forceful response from its neighbors.
6. This is where OPEC gets in the crosshairs. The organisation was built on shared Arab producer interests. It seems the UAE has now concluded its interests diverge sharply from Saudi Arabia’s on security, on Iran, and on production strategy.
7. The UAE-Saudi relationship is too frayed, with ongoing disagreements over Yemen, Sudan, and now divergent approaches to the Iranian threat.
8. The US dimension could explain the timing. President Trump has explicitly linked American military protection of Gulf states to oil prices, accusing OPEC of exploiting US defence commitments.
9. In this environment Abu Dhabi appears to have made the calculation that staying in OPEC while depending on Washington is an increasingly untenable position. Leaving is as much a political signal as an economic one.
10. The UAE wants to scale output from 3.4 million to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, a target incompatible with OPEC quotas. They have the resources and the reserves to do this.
11. The UAE said the exit gives it more flexibility to respond to market dynamics. In a world of historically low spare capacity, that flexibility has enormous monetary value and it makes sense for the UAE to capitalize on it.
12. For OPEC this is a huge blow. When your third-largest producer calculates that national interest, security alliances, and production ambitions are all better served outside the organisation, the bloc’s cohesion is now a reality.
Still too early to write off #OPEC but this could lead to other countries deciding to do the same. #IranWar #OPEC #UAE
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The Strait of Hormuz May Reopen, But the System Has Already Broken | OilPrice.com oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-… #oilprice
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The Strait of #Hormuz May Reopen, But the System Has Already Broken | OilPrice.com oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-… #oilprice #IranWar
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Investors & #incubators sharing insights on #African #startup ecosystem at the African Incubator Value Creation forum #AIVC
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If #GDP is rejected what are the right means of economic and #development performance? @BrookingsGlobal
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@miaamormottley suggest 40-50 year loans for health and education. #DebtCrisis #sustainability #development
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#Africa’s #solar boom faces higher costs as #China cuts export subsidies apnews.com/article/china-… This is an opening for someone.
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Top 10 African countries where investors see the most risk in 2026 africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/…
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#AIVC 📷 WB/IMF spring meetings set the tone for global emerging market capital allocation
📷 Structured incubation is the mechanism that converts African innovation into institutional-grade deals
📷 Apr 16, 2026
📷 10:00 AM EST
DC + Virtual
Register now:
luma.com/kn9c9ucv
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#AIVC The agenda is direct: how structured incubation across #Africa is producing investable, de-risked #AgriTech companies and how private #capital participates with intention. #ValueCreation
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