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Deep__Rex
7.5K posts
Deep__Rex
@Deep__Rex
Would-be: gentleman farmer, body builder, boulevardier, sailboat owner, futures trader, podcast extraordinaire
Gallup, NM เข้าร่วม Ocak 2020
289 กำลังติดตาม337 ผู้ติดตาม
@TFL1728 @Snapol2 Ad hominems can be launched at everybody, Hugh doesn't care...
x.com/hendry_hugh/st…
The sorting is FASCINATING!
There are these watersheds, a much more inconsequential one happened for a different milleu when Rittenhouse walked free.
Hugh Hendry Acid Capitalist TV@hendry_hugh
𝚒 𝚌𝚊𝚕𝚕 𝚒𝚝 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚎𝚖𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚛𝚊𝚜𝚜𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚘𝚏 𝚌𝚕𝚊𝚛𝚒𝚝𝚢. 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚖𝚘𝚖𝚎𝚗𝚝 𝚠𝚑𝚎𝚗 𝚠𝚑𝚊𝚝 𝚠𝚊𝚜 𝚊𝚕𝚠𝚊𝚢𝚜 𝚘𝚋𝚟𝚒𝚘𝚞𝚜 𝚜𝚞𝚍𝚍𝚎𝚗𝚕𝚢 𝚋𝚎𝚌𝚘𝚖𝚎𝚜 𝚊𝚌𝚌𝚎𝚙𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝚜𝚊𝚢 𝚘𝚞𝚝 𝚕𝚘𝚞𝚍. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚙𝚛𝚎𝚜𝚜 𝚌𝚊𝚝𝚌𝚑𝚎𝚜 𝚞𝚙. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚗𝚊𝚛𝚛𝚊𝚝𝚒𝚟𝚎 𝚜𝚑𝚒𝚏𝚝𝚜. 𝚎𝚟𝚎𝚛𝚢𝚘𝚗𝚎 𝚊𝚌𝚝𝚜 𝚕𝚒𝚔𝚎 𝚒𝚝 𝚠𝚊𝚜 𝚘𝚋𝚟𝚒𝚘𝚞𝚜 𝚊𝚕𝚕 𝚊𝚕𝚘𝚗𝚐. 𝚋𝚞𝚝 𝚋𝚢 𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚗, 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚔𝚎𝚝 𝚑𝚊𝚜 𝚊𝚕𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚍𝚢 𝚖𝚘𝚟𝚎𝚍. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚔𝚎𝚝 𝚑𝚊𝚜 𝚊𝚕𝚛𝚎𝚊𝚍𝚢 𝚙𝚊𝚒𝚍. 𝚝𝚑𝚊𝚝’𝚜 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚐𝚊𝚖𝚎. 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚘𝚗𝚕𝚢 𝚚𝚞𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚘𝚗 𝚒𝚜 𝚠𝚑𝚎𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛 𝚢𝚘𝚞 𝚠𝚎𝚛𝚎 𝚝𝚑𝚎𝚛𝚎 𝚋𝚎𝚏𝚘𝚛𝚎 𝚒𝚝 𝚋𝚎𝚌𝚊𝚖𝚎 𝚘𝚋𝚟𝚒𝚘𝚞𝚜. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
English
@Snapol2 Watched this the other day, referenced it in last Sunday’s Market Report for the patrons. Jillian has definitely been given her talking points to counter-signal. A good sign, actaullly.
English
You see Chris doesn’t even listen to a thing I actually say. To call what I do 1-dimensional means all he does is read my feed rather than actually listen to my positions.
Now that he’s blocked me I can unload on his middle class Dunning-Krueger persona for realz.
This Peak Snake Oil Salesman’s job is to keep you within very tight narrative guard rails while he LARPs as an expert at anything
We could have had a conversation at any point in the past but he always evaded because he only “deals in facts,not conjecture.” But then he would have found out that he was up against a real intellect instead of the false one he projects while he wears his “respectable Edgar suit.” (Men in Black reference for the Millennials & Zoomerwaffen)
So when I saw Chris venturing into his feelings and conjecture here on Twitter, I called him out on it. Because, this “unprofessional “ behavior from Scott Bessent is not worthy of his attention?
I thought we were here for the facts Doc-Tor Martenson?
Appealing to feelings is feminine energy. It’s why I felt his schtick was “unbecoming a man.”
Trash talking the enemy in wartime is how it is done. Why should an American like Martenson care if some non-agreement capable Persian death cultist got insulted by Big Gay Patton?
When someone reaches for the “muh feelings” argument in matters geopolitical it reeks of limes. Their influence is everywhere.
But I suspect in this case it’s just that classic Middle Middle Class fear of going back to being poor again and having no status anymore.
Chris is a midwit who has no platform of note. He made his bones pimping a contra-factual Peak Oil grifter 20years ago that cost a lot of people a lot of money and time.
So here’s the Crash Course for the cheap seats. Most influencers peddling an expensive subscription service are just grifters protecting their cash flow.
None of us are heroes, but a lot of us are villains. Sadly, the discourse and those in the middle as the victims
I didn’t want to believe he was a nefarious character, but like so many in the past 8 weeks, he put on The Sorting Hat and was revealed before the world.
Gods save us from respectable “men”
English
There's so many podcast and IRL guys like Chris. Incapable of thinking on their feet, and the absolute opposite of "in the room smart".
I hate to say it but it really makes me sympathize with the bad guys. Maybe my people are cattle. We shouldn't be treated like cattle, but flip so many are so boring and confidently wrong, all by being wildly self-righteous. It's an amazing combination.
English
You know, sometimes I amaze even myself...
Deep__Rex@Deep__Rex
@SecScottBessent Oil, oil every where. Nor any gas to guzzle
English
While the surviving IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE.
Pumping will soon collapse.
GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent
Doing business with sanctioned Iranian airlines risks exposure to U.S. sanctions. Foreign governments should take all actions necessary to ensure that companies in their jurisdictions do not provide services to those aircraft, including the provision of jet fuel, catering, landing fees or maintenance. Under Economic Fury, the @USTreasury will impose maximum pressure on Iran and will not hesitate to act against any third parties that facilitate or conduct business with Iranian entities. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…
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@mehdirhasan The shrieking from the left if the door ever starts to swing both ways...
English
They literally don’t understand comedy or free speech.
We are governed by snowflake morons.
Acyn@Acyn
Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel to be fired by ABC
English
It's funny/sad at a certain point you would think grown men from any side of the political spectrum would, for their own health/sanity, realize that they can live by their own code/expectations but that the Trump Admin is trying to do great things and isn't going to spend energy on their/previous decorum. ///////
English
@chrismartenson Your constant affliction of the vapors has thoroughly worn out whatever welcome it once had.
It’s pathetic and unbecoming a man.
English
I cannot believe this immature statement is from the US Treasury Secretary. But it is.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent@SecScottBessent
While the surviving IRGC Leaders are trapped like drowning rats in a sewage pipe, Iran’s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE. Pumping will soon collapse. GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!
English
Deep__Rex รีทวีตแล้ว
Grant was one of the most consequential Americans in history. He was the only one of the Union’s generals who understood the depth of the problem in front of him.
The Confederates were fighting for a cause. They were ideologically possessed. Be it for State’s Rights, Slavery, or the principles of the American system, it did not matter.
He saw this in his first battle with them and knew that they would not relent or submit until soundly broken.
This is why he fought them the way he did. Why he pursued them and pressured them the way he did. And it’s why he won battles that he “lost” the first time.
Grant understood this was an industrial war, a war of attrition. And that that logistics behind you were more important to winning than the men in front of you.
He was nearly erased from history because he was the man who, along with Sherman, saved the American experiment from the depredations of British and French external pressure and support.
This is why he was consigned to the role of “a drunk butcher who got lucky,” rather than the man who won Lincoln the war and gave the US republic another chance to thrive.
He and Lincoln were the first of historic consequence to beat the Color Revolution playbook and his reward was opprobrium and marginalization.
In short, U.S. Grant was a badass who learned from his failures and never wavered. In the end, he beat Lee to a pulp, while his strategy tore the South’s fever dream to pieces.
Yes, total war is deplorable. It brings out the very worst in humanity. But, sometimes that is all your enemy offers you in return.
Look around you today, and you’ll see this vile pattern playing itself out in Ukraine, Tehran, and yes, in the Blue States in the US.
They are banking on weaponizing our humanity against us to stop short of where they are willing to go to win.
Grant was both a model and a warning. If you are going to fight, fight like a demon. He didn’t have the luxury of the broken field Patton had in France in 1944-45. He couldn’t move so fast that he could beat the enemy before they knew they were beaten.
Grant had to force the issue head on, being just as relentless as Patton, and did so knowing the price would be almost too high to bear.
That’s America. That’s what fighting for a cause truly looks like…. Where kings aren’t gods, but men, created equal.
I hope that this is the message Donald Trump conveys without equivocation to Charles and Camila this week. Do this great American’s legacy proud on the anniversary of his birth.
Echoes of War@EchoesofWarYT
He won the Civil War, broke the Klan, went bankrupt at 62, got terminal throat cancer, and wrote one of the greatest books in American literature in the final year of his life. He finished it 5 days before he died. Ulysses S. Grant was born 204 years ago today. His name wasn't even Ulysses S. Grant. He was born Hiram Ulysses Grant in Point Pleasant, Ohio on April 27, 1822. The congressman who nominated him to West Point wrote down the wrong name. Grant kept it. The "S." stands for nothing. He hated his father's tannery and loved horses. Graduated 21st of 39 at West Point. Fought in the Mexican-American War, then came home convinced it was an unjust war designed to expand slavery. He later said he believed the Civil War was divine punishment for it. He married Julia Dent in 1848, into a slave-owning Missouri family. His abolitionist father refused to attend the wedding. In 1859, broke and desperate, Grant freed the one enslaved man he'd briefly owned instead of selling him. He could have gotten a year's wages. In the Civil War he became what no other Union general was: relentless. Vicksburg (July 4, 1863) split the Confederacy in half. Lincoln then gave him every Union army. His Appomattox surrender terms: officers kept sidearms, men kept horses for spring planting, no one prosecuted. As president (1869 to 1877) he did something no president would do again until LBJ: used federal troops to crush the Ku Klux Klan. He suspended habeas corpus in 9 South Carolina counties, prosecuted Klansmen before predominantly Black juries, and broke the first Klan. His presidency was also rocked by scandal: Black Friday 1869. Crédit Mobilier. The Whiskey Ring. Belknap. Grant himself never took a dime. He was just disastrously loyal to corrupt friends. The pattern damaged his reputation for a century. After the White House, he toured the world for 2 years. Dined with Queen Victoria. Met the emperor of Japan. Then in 1884, a Wall Street partner named Ferdinand Ward ran what we'd now call a Ponzi scheme. Grant was wiped out. 62 years old. Penniless. Weeks later he was diagnosed with terminal throat cancer. Mark Twain offered to publish his memoirs. Grant wrote in agony, sometimes 50 pages a day, racing the disease to leave Julia an inheritance. He finished the manuscript July 18, 1885. He died July 23. The book made Julia $450,000, about $14M today. It's now considered one of the finest memoirs in the English language. For decades historians ranked Grant a failure. Since 2000 he's jumped 13 spots in the C-SPAN survey, the biggest rise of any president. Happy birthday, General 🇺🇸
English
He won the Civil War, broke the Klan, went bankrupt at 62, got terminal throat cancer, and wrote one of the greatest books in American literature in the final year of his life. He finished it 5 days before he died.
Ulysses S. Grant was born 204 years ago today.
His name wasn't even Ulysses S. Grant. He was born Hiram Ulysses Grant in Point Pleasant, Ohio on April 27, 1822. The congressman who nominated him to West Point wrote down the wrong name. Grant kept it. The "S." stands for nothing.
He hated his father's tannery and loved horses. Graduated 21st of 39 at West Point. Fought in the Mexican-American War, then came home convinced it was an unjust war designed to expand slavery. He later said he believed the Civil War was divine punishment for it.
He married Julia Dent in 1848, into a slave-owning Missouri family. His abolitionist father refused to attend the wedding. In 1859, broke and desperate, Grant freed the one enslaved man he'd briefly owned instead of selling him. He could have gotten a year's wages.
In the Civil War he became what no other Union general was: relentless. Vicksburg (July 4, 1863) split the Confederacy in half. Lincoln then gave him every Union army. His Appomattox surrender terms: officers kept sidearms, men kept horses for spring planting, no one prosecuted.
As president (1869 to 1877) he did something no president would do again until LBJ: used federal troops to crush the Ku Klux Klan. He suspended habeas corpus in 9 South Carolina counties, prosecuted Klansmen before predominantly Black juries, and broke the first Klan.
His presidency was also rocked by scandal: Black Friday 1869. Crédit Mobilier. The Whiskey Ring. Belknap. Grant himself never took a dime. He was just disastrously loyal to corrupt friends. The pattern damaged his reputation for a century.
After the White House, he toured the world for 2 years. Dined with Queen Victoria. Met the emperor of Japan. Then in 1884, a Wall Street partner named Ferdinand Ward ran what we'd now call a Ponzi scheme. Grant was wiped out. 62 years old. Penniless.
Weeks later he was diagnosed with terminal throat cancer. Mark Twain offered to publish his memoirs. Grant wrote in agony, sometimes 50 pages a day, racing the disease to leave Julia an inheritance. He finished the manuscript July 18, 1885. He died July 23.
The book made Julia $450,000, about $14M today. It's now considered one of the finest memoirs in the English language. For decades historians ranked Grant a failure. Since 2000 he's jumped 13 spots in the C-SPAN survey, the biggest rise of any president.
Happy birthday, General 🇺🇸
English
When I worked in quant finance @ SIG, we'd play this game called "Make a Market" for $1,000...
It's kinda interesting:
1) An unbiased person picks a random question (e.g. What's the population of Tanzania)
2) Person A makes a market (say 30million-100million)
3) Person B can "tighten" the market (e.g. 50M - 80M) or buy/sell (e.g. below 30M or above 100M)
4) Person A can then "tighten" the market (e.g. 60M - 65M) or buy/sell (below 60M or above 65M)
The game ends when somebody buys/sells...
Let's say Person A "buys" 65M. The popular of Tanzania is 72M so they'd win the $1,000.
If they "sold" 60M, they'd lose. If the population was between 60-65M, then they'd also lose...
The game teaches you a lot about trading/risk tolerance/confidence in your assumptions
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
English
親愛なるアメリカの兄貴達へ🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵
アメリカの全てが大好き
V8💪アメ車は最高🔥
去年ガンで54歳で死んだ父親もアメリカ大好きな男でした
右腕には父親と同じアメリカンなタトゥーも入れました🤘⭐️
狭い道&狭い土地の京都に住んでいます
いつかまたアメリカで遊びたい！
京都にも遊びに来てね😘
日本語
Deep__Rex รีทวีตแล้ว
Had a Jane Street interview in 2013 that still bothers me.
It was my 6th round. Final interview. The guy walks in carrying no laptop, no notebook, just a cold brew and what I later realized was a single IKEA tea candle.
He writes on the whiteboard:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $150
candles: $3,600
family: dying
Then he turns around and says, “Optimize.”
I laughed because I thought it was a culture-fit bit. He did not laugh.
So I said, “Well, obviously you spend less on candles.”
He says, “Assume candles are non-discretionary.”
Okay.
I start building a model. Basic constraint satisfaction. Family survival as a soft penalty. Candles as a state variable. Maybe there’s an arbitrage where you buy wholesale paraffin and convert the $3,600 line item into inventory.
He stops me.
“You’re thinking like a consultant.”
That’s when I knew I was in trouble.
He says, “Give me a bid-ask on family dying.”
I say, “What?”
He says, “You’re long candles, short family. Where do you make markets?”
I try to recover. I say the real issue is liquidity: rent and utilities are fixed, food is elastic, candles are emotionally inelastic. Therefore the optimal strategy is to securitize future candle enjoyment and borrow against it.
He nods for the first time.
Then he asks, “What time do you sell the candles?”
I say, “Whenever the market is liquid?”
He says, “Be more specific.”
I say, “Uh… 10 a.m. Eastern?”
For the first time, he smiles.
He goes, “Every day?”
I say, “Every day.”
He says, “In size?”
I say, “In size.”
He says, “And what do we call that?”
I say, “Market manipulation?”
The room gets very quiet.
He looks disappointed and writes something down.
“No. We call it providing liquidity to candle ETFs during the U.S. cash open.”
I try to save it. “Right. Of course. The family isn’t dying because we underfunded them. They’re just experiencing temporary price discovery.”
He nods again.
Then he points back at the board.
I had missed it. The utility bill was $150, but candles provide light. You can zero out utilities.
I update the budget:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $0
candles: $3,750
family: still dying, but now in a more capital-efficient way
He says, “How confident are you?”
I say, “0.95.”
He smiles and circles candles.
“0.95 huh?”
Then he asks me to estimate how many leveraged longs get liquidated if we dump $3,750 of candles at 10:00:01 every morning for 90 consecutive trading days.
Needless to say I did not get the offer.
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
English
@trvebelieve I normally find people labelled as “raconteur” to be underwhelming but he deserves the title.
I’ve always wished that gun scene was about 20min longer.
English
@osmotheosis @trvebelieve I am going to watch The Net… sometime.
What’s the best AC that’s not HN and CoC. Regardless of his politics/motivation the archival footage and consequential historical subject matter is hard to beat.
English
@trvebelieve Some of my faves (you've probably already seen them but just in case you haven't):
The Net (2003)
The Act of Killing
Barska
Grizzly Man
Anything by Adam Curtis
English
@trvebelieve The gun salesman from Taxi Driver (5 stars).
Or of course if you haven’t seen Hearts of Darkness…
Or some Adam Curtis doc I haven’t seen.
English
1) fuck trust, we don’t need leveraged commodity markets, let producers and actual buyers determine price
2) fuck trust, foreigners can’t resist USA equity markets, if you want to go after something attack the shorting and buying of shares that don’t exist
3) fuck trust, the actual bad foreign actors have manipulating markets for decades, Trump insiders are taking their money, great, if you are the little guy have the sense to sit this one out.
English
GROMEN SUSPECTS INSIDER SHORTS CRUSHED OIL PRICES TO SAVE BONDS
Luke Gromen just laid out how oil prices were managed during the Iran conflict. The veteran macro analyst watched the chaos unfold and saw a clear pattern of deliberate intervention instead of free markets at work.
THE RIGGING PLAYBOOK
➡️ Gromen reveals that when oil exploded past $110 the Treasury unsanctioned Russian and Iranian crude within days.
➡️ This flooded supply exactly when 20 percent of global oil was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz.
➡️ The move flew in the face of existing sanctions and was spun as clever “jujitsu.”
THE FRONT-RUNNING SUSPICIONS
➡️ Gromen suspects politically connected players front-ran massive positions at key moments.
➡️ On March 22 Trump tweeted plans to destroy Iran’s infrastructure, oil spiked, then someone shorted $500 million right before the “just kidding” reversal.
➡️ Days before the ceasefire another $950 million notional short hit futures at the perfect instant.
THE TREASURY MARKET DRIVER
➡️ Gromen warns that soaring oil threatened to shatter Treasury volatility at levels that normally trigger emergency liquidity.
➡️ Policymakers chose artificial price management over letting markets price the real war risk.
➡️ This created what Gromen calls Schrödinger’s war — serious for policy, but never serious enough to let oil trade freely.
THE LONG-TERM DAMAGE
➡️ Gromen suspects these tactics are eroding the sanctity of US markets.
➡️ Market participants now whisper the game feels rigged by insiders.
➡️ Trust is slipping fast, and once faith leaves it rarely returns.
THE BOTTOM LINE
They capped oil short-term to protect bonds and the narrative, but Luke Groman sees the permanent cost: markets that no longer feel fair or free.
This is how you win the day and lose the decade.
HT: YouTube misesmedia @LukeGromen
#MarketRigging #OilPriceManipulation #LukeGroman #TreasuryShorts #InsiderFutures #BondMarketPanic #USMarketTrust
Mark@Mark4XX
THE MARKET JUST BECAME THE REAL WAR ZONE Traditional bombs and boots have hit their limit in the US-Iran showdown. What decides victory in 2026 is no longer pure military muscle but raw economic pain flowing straight through global markets. Iran refuses to blink on its 10-point red lines while America leans on dollar power and narrative control. The battlefield has shifted — and physical reality is about to school the algorithms. THE CORE SHIFT: MILITARY POWER MEETS MARKET REALITY ➡️ US naval and air dominance cannot easily reopen the Strait of Hormuz without massive risk and cost. ➡️ Iran’s asymmetric arsenal — mines, missiles, drones, speedboats — turns the narrow 21-mile chokepoint into a deadly trap. ➡️ Full control would demand ground forces and a potential quagmire nobody wants. IRAN’S UNBREAKABLE RED LINES ➡️ Sovereign control over Hormuz, domestic uranium enrichment, end to all sanctions, US troop withdrawal, non-aggression guarantee, and reparations. ➡️ These demands clash head-on with America’s zero-enrichment and open-access goals and its DNA as hegemon. ➡️ Iran only needs sustained disruption, not total closure, to spike insurance, deter tankers, and create scarcity. US FINANCIAL WEAPON: POWERFUL BUT NOT INFINITE ➡️ Dollar hegemony, SWIFT control, sanctions, and SPR releases let Washington manipulate prices and flows in the short term. ➡️ Coordinated 172 million barrel SPR dumps and futures trading can “fire the algorithms” and calm panic temporarily. THE PHYSICAL COUNTERPUNCH THAT MARKETS CANNOT IGNORE ➡️ Hormuz carries ~20-21 million barrels per day — 20% of global petroleum and 25% of seaborne oil. ➡️ Even partial threats in 2026 sent Brent and WTI soaring above $100 with wild 10%+ swings. ➡️ Short-term hedges and SPR buffers fade fast when real supply tightness hits. THE COMING ECONOMIC STORM ➡️ Sustained high oil feeds headline inflation, as seen in Canada’s 21.2% gasoline surge driving CPI higher. ➡️ US faces the same “tax” on consumers who power two-thirds of GDP, crushing spending and confidence. ➡️ Stocks correct on higher costs and rate uncertainty while bond yields whip-saw on inflation versus recession fears. ➡️ Goldman Sachs-level warnings already flag 0.5–1%+ GDP drag and rising unemployment risks. TIME FAVORS THE SIDE THAT ENDURES ➡️ US political clocks run short on voter pain from gasoline prices and market turmoil. ➡️ Iran has decades of sanction-hardened resilience and geographic leverage. ➡️ Physical scarcities in oil, LNG, and supply chains cannot be wished away by financial engineering forever. THE BOTTOM LINE In 2026 the true arena of power is the global market itself, where Iran’s control of the energy jugular creates scarcities no dollar dominance or narrative spin can erase indefinitely. The ceasefire now declared by Trump changes nothing about the situation. It only buys the USA time, which actually brings it nothing. For time is against the USA. High oil, inflation spikes, recession signals, stock declines, and bond market chaos are now the real scoreboard — and time is quietly shifting the advantage. #MarketIsTheWar #HormuzChokehold #IranRedLines #OilShock2026 #USIranConflict #EconomicWarfare #StagflationRisk
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@MLC4547 @DrJStrategy You are about 6 weeks behind, A-10s and Apaches are machine gunning the drones for pennies, in fact before the drones go into their dives they are sitting ducks.
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@Deep__Rex @DrJStrategy Drones are a huge part of the Iranian strategy, low cost and highly effective. We launch dozens of million dollar rockets at hundreds of thousand dollar drones - it doesn't math.
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Food for thought.
Iran Is Not Winning. It Is Unraveling.
The prevailing narrative on Iran has it almost perfectly reversed. We are told that Tehran is winning a war of wills in the Gulf and that Donald Trump is gambling recklessly with the world’s most sensitive chokepoint. In reality, Iran is not consolidating strength; it is managing decline. And Trump’s play on the Strait of Hormuz has quietly forced energy markets to reprice security—tilting the balance decisively toward the Americas, and away from Europe, Asia and China.
The Islamic Republic no longer resembles a confident revolutionary project.
With the old clerical core leadership shattered, power has splintered between a camp that recognises a deal with the outside world as the only path to survival and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a class of military dictators with guns, patronage networks and a rational fear that any genuine settlement will ultimately throw them overboard. This is not a unified strategy at work; it’s infighting, paranoia, a fragmented system in late-stage decay, crumbling under pressure.
Into this fragmentation, the White House has introduced a form of calibrated coercion too often caricatured as impulsive.
Around the Strait of Hormuz, Washington has threatened disruption without fully triggering it, forcing shipowners, insurers and policymakers to absorb a hard truth: dependence on vulnerable, seaborne Middle Eastern barrels is not a passing inconvenience but a structural risk. Iran can harass tankers and jolt day-to-day sentiment; it cannot rebuild a broken economy on sporadic shocks to global shipping. And the world must deal with the end of Pax Americana!
The underlying playbook is anything but novel. Sun Tzu’s insistence that “all warfare is based on deception”, Machiavelli’s counsel that a ruler must manipulate appearances and exploit factionalism, and Alfred Thayer Mahan’s argument that sea power and control of chokepoints shape the fate of nations are not museum pieces. They are, in this case, the operating code. Trump’s opaque signalling, deliberate use of disinformation and visible but limited naval posture in and around Hormuz amount to a modern, Mahanian use of sea power as economic statecraft.
Energy markets are already adjusting. Tankers are head to the Gulf of America. In a world where a single strait can a risk to economies is Europe and Asia, without ever being fully closed, assets tied to secure basins and diversified export routes deserve a premium.
The Americas sit in an enviable position: vast, politically stable hydrocarbon resources, multiple pipelines and ports, and no dependence on a distant maritime chokepoint controlled by adversaries. By contrast, Europe, much of Asia and China find themselves downstream of vulnerabilities they do not control and regimes they cannot stabilise, exposed to shipping routes that can be threatened faster than alternative supply can be mobilised.
All of this plays out against a domestic backdrop in Iran that looks less like revolutionary vigour and more like fear. A state that cannot safely keep its internet on, that must rely on public brutality to deter dissent, is not projecting confidence. It is signalling weakness, to its own citizens as much as to its rivals.
Winston Churchill once remarked that “in war, resolution; in defeat, defiance; in victory, magnanimity; in peace, goodwill.” Iran’s leadership offers only defiance, without realistic prospects of victory or peace.
The uncomfortable conclusion for those still insisting that Tehran is “winning” is that what they are observing is not the rise of a regional hegemon, but the protracted, strategically exploited unwinding of a brittle regime at the centre of an overexposed energy system.
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