Stephen McBride

Investor’s playbook for the Iran war: Buy the invasion Since 1940 the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after a major geopolitical crisis 85% of the time. Chart from the great @Geo_papic

Optimists have more babies

My #1 anti-AI trade riskhedge.com/post/my-number…

Read my latest @RationalOptSoc Diary: 'Everything's AI' rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com/p/everythings-…

@C_Reilly5 When it comes to crypto, you want real businesses making real money.

Bitcoin is up 20% over the past 5 years That’s like a high yield savings account with 100x the risk

Some thoughts on destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf. It is not exactly a new insight that modern economies operate on oil. Oil access, synthesis, and interdiction was a major theater of WW2. 100 years ago oil-poor nations spent heavily and participated in terrible wars over oil. See, for example, the Combined Bombing Offensive, Operation Tidal Wave, and the destruction of the Leuna synthetic fuel plants, not to mention the effectiveness of the submarine war in the waters around Japan. In 2022, energy producer Russia invaded Ukraine, instantly throwing into stark relief the idiocy of European energy policy, where an unholy alliance of heavily regulated energy contractors and astroturfed "green" activists managed to get Germany to shut down their nuclear industry. Even as solar panel production, largely initially developed and funded in the West, grew to overwhelming proportions, Europe insisted on sending roughly $1b *per day* to Russia for access to their oil and gas. If Europe had adjusted course in early 2022, then they would be able to support their power grids and probably some synthetic fuel production by now. The US built nuclear weapons from scratch in 2.5 years in the 1940s in competition with other national priorities at the same time. It's been more than four years since Ukraine's invasion. But no, they did sweet fuck all about ensuring energy sovereignty. Indeed, they even went in the other direction. Britain concentrated government resources on cracking down on free speech and stopped drilling for oil. The continent continued their ill-informed blanket ban on fracking, and working age people continued to pay the price, in the form of ever higher costs, ever higher taxes, ever poorer public services, ever dropping fertility. What about the rest of the oil importing developed world? France and Japan maintained their nuclear industry, their navies, their shipping industries and the fungibility of their supply - to an extent - even as they continued to actively burn up their economies in other more insidious ways. New Zealand shut down their last refinery. Australia exports a lot of crude and gas but mostly lacks the ability to close their supply chain in their own borders, and fuel prices have almost doubled. California continued to ban new drilling and continues to wage open regulatory warfare against their oil refineries, perversely increasing oil-related air pollution in the state from foreign oil tanker imports and pushing gasoline prices ever higher. More of the world has attempted to switch to natural gas supply, with investments exceeding $1t on gas import and export terminals, as though it's some fundamental law of nature that hydrocarbons must cross an ocean before they're used. As though the US fracking boom will last forever, or Asian demand growth won't see European prices continue to increase, further crushing their economic dynamism. I have been in the room with various Asian and European energy ministers and have asked them point blank: What's your plan? I have never gotten a better answer than a shrug, as though they'll muddle through and soon it'll be someone else's problem. The best time to get serious about domestic energy supply chains was four years ago. The second best time is today. The pain will ease just as soon as you say the magic words: I must increase my own energy supply! And yes, it is totally possible to produce synthetic oil and gas pretty much anywhere that people live with a solar-based process we've spent four years developing at @TerraformIndies, it is future proof, it is strategically robust, it is price-linked to solar manufacturing cost, which continues to fall like a rock. It's not entirely trivial to do but, given that Europe spends about 100,000x more on Russian oil and gas imports than they do on (privately funded) synthetic fuel development, I am on safe ground when I accuse Europe's leaders of committing gross capital misallocation. Imagine what the synthetic fuel industry could achieve with $1b/day! If you are an energy minister, now is a good time to reflect on fates worse than losing an election. Get back to work!

This is a shameful moment in Western history, leaders standing like frightened cowards before the Islamist jihadist rats ruling Iran. Starmer in Britain. The German Chancellor. They want the oil. The gas. The markets. But when it comes to defending it? Silence. Cowardice. Excuses. At the same time they rush to talk with the Islamic regime in Iran. So let’s be clear: Zero friendship. Zero loyalty. Zero respect for their own interests or for the civilization they claim to defend. Do not speak to us again about friendship. Do not lecture the world about freedom. We watched you stand against your closest ally, America, while hoping the Islamist regime in Iran wins this confrontation.

Either Iran is holding back capacity in order to threaten Hormuz and Gulf energy production... or...

Introducing the Modular Citadel production line, capable of producing over 1,000 shielding blocks per year. The Modular Citadel is a pre-cast, self-tensioning shielding system built for mass-manufactured scale. Block production is on track for July 4th!

Explore the full rankings, interactive map, country breakdowns, and oil price scenario tool: #hormuz" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">paleofaire.github.io/energy-abundan…

What about the USA? America still imports about 35% of its oil, but only 6% of that comes from the Gulf. It has 120 days of strategic reserves and is the world's largest oil producer. The real risk for the US is price. When Hormuz closes, oil spikes globally.

Introducing... the Strait of Hormuz Exposure Index @RationalOptSoc 20% of the world's oil (20 million barrels a day) flows through a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman which is currently closed for the first time ever Who is most exposed? #hormuz" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">paleofaire.github.io/energy-abundan…