Alex Gregory

@bobspaysubstack @Dip_Buyer03

Shift4's $FOUR Warning Signs $FOUR's Q4 earnings were a mixed bag, to be generous. In reality, there were several red flags that warrant greater scrutiny. Yes, shares are exceedingly cheap, and I am STILL long, but if anything is certain in payments it’s that valuation alone is not a reason for a stock to move higher. Appreciable slowing of organic revenue growth. The biggie. After increasing 26% in 2024, $FOUR's organic revenue growth is expected to slow to 10% in 2026, inclusive of Global Blue. While low double-digit organic revenue growth is good, especially for a company trading at $FOUR's valuation, the trend is not our friend. More importantly, the slowdown adds validity to a key bear argument for $FOUR that acquisitions fuel an unsustainable burst of ‘organic’ growth, requiring continual M&A to sustain attractive ‘organic’ growth. 2026 guidance does not appear conservative, calling into question a return to beat-and-raise cadence. Even before the Iranian conflict, which may eat into discretionary spending and slow global travel in certain corridors ( $FOUR called out the Middle East and Saudi Arabia as increasingly important strategic markets), it does not appear $FOUR was being overly conservative by assuming recent SSS trends continue through 2026, calling into question a return to a beat-and-raise cadence. Falling blended spreads in Q4. On a year-over-year basis, $FOUR's blended spreads fell 3-bps in Q4, and probably closer to 4-bps excluding Global Blue. While I’m willing to give $FOUR the benefit of the doubt, if it was indeed a mix issue, it implies meaningful slowing in $FOUR's SMB volume, calling into question the quality of the merchant base and how it would hold up in a more significant economic downturn. The lack of a clear handle on how FX and geopolitics will impact Global Blue. While I don’t blame $FOUR for things that are clearly outside of their control (FX movements and geopolitical tension), I do believe $FOUR was overly optimistic about the underlying growth potential of Global Blue. As I noted back in October, Global Blue’s revenue grew only at a 4% compound annual rate from 2019 to 2025 (fiscal year ending March), falling to about 2% after excluding acquisitions that created the Post-Purchase Solutions segment in 2020 and 2021. Shrinking backlog. At the end of 2025, $FOUR's volume backlog was $32 billion, representing only 15% of 2025’s E2E volume. It was also down from more than $35 billion at the end of Q1, Q2 and Q3. While I’m in no way dismissing the opportunity from the cross-sell funnel, recent backlog performance suggests this volume may be more adjacent than captive, requiring more effort by $FOUR to convert it to actual end-to-end volume. Adjusted free cash flow flat in 2026. After saying it was on pace to exceed its $1B FCF exit rate target in 2027, $FOUR guided to just $500M of FCF in 2026, flat with 2025. Even if I assume FCF grows by one-third in 2027, which may be aggressive, $665 million is a far cry from a $1 billion annualized exit rate. $FOUR now prefers to look at this metric on a per-share basis given its preference for buybacks over debt paydown. Fair, but if I assume $FOUR buys back the entire $1B authorization, the forfeited interest expense savings would only be about $50 million ($1 billion at 7% and a 25% tax rate), making the $720 million pro-forma FCF number still notably shy of the $1 billion target. Changing and inconsistent disclosure. Underpinning most of my concerns and the red flags I’ve outlined above is $FOUR's changing and inconsistent disclosure. Changing and inconsistent disclosure strikes at the heart of management’s credibility, a precious resource for companies.

@bobspaysubstack @tembelvitesi

@TJTheWheelDeal IBKR fixes this.

Added $SGOV as a way to generate some revenue in order to offset some fees.

@lasse108 Lose it all and do it again !

Now that I am sharing the amounts for this specific account I should plan something for when it hits 2m Any ideas?

@PurpleDrink_LLC The fart coin all in environment you’ve been talking about ?!

The environment I’ve waited MONTHS for can be shaping up here

@JohnDoeKnowsGuy 🔥🚀

My account is about to hit ATHs since I am in LEAPs since upper 20s/low 30s. $lqda

@jakebrowatzke Idk any broker that gives more portfolio margin than IBKR

I am transferring my portfolio out of Interactive Brokers after 3 great years on the platform and wanted to share my performance history for the record. Despite being in a -80% TYD drawdown currently I've had a 584% returns from 2023 to 2026, for an annualized return of 88.31%. I originally left M1 for IBKR during a huge drawdown to get access to more margin. Now I'm leaving IBKR during a huge drawdown for the same reason.

@jakebrowatzke To go where.

Picked up my last tranche of $FOUR shares today 🤢

@jbulltard1 The KKR flow 😂

I told you private equity would want in x.com/FirstSquawk/st…

@JohnDoeKnowsGuy He can purchase Iran.

How much money did Barron make in the last 2 hours?

@BichonRedux I will eat 10 tacos tomorrow if so.

Could this be the biggest Taco Tuesday of all time?

@tembelvitesi We top ticked that little squeeze when we were high fiving each other.

today i added Jan'28 $FOUR leaps with 60c, 70c, 75c. Today we bottomed at $40.25. This price does not make sense and has nothing to do with fundamentals. I will be adding to my position as long as it says around here. But for the fellow $FOUR holders who has doubt or feeling a bit nervous, i start Jared Tweets. As i have said, this price movement is not fundamentals driven and they have done this before as Jared said back then. "Shorts & hedge funds do their thing... we will do ours."

@jbulltard1 I mean if the price is right

This is why citirni is the king of substack. I’m hiring a bulltards analyst to fly to Saudi Arabia with a jet ski ready to hit the strait for intel

@Clooneeuk @mvn1cgat0 Shit I like you even more now 💪

@mvn1cgat0 Raised on rock and metal, I wanted to put more in but had to make it predominantly house. I do have a full rock playlist though

didn’t know @Clooneeuk threw down like that

@jbulltard1 Usually when they flag my trades they say “ some pussy “ so it must be nice being called a whale.

I like reading the crappy options services posting about an $INTC "whale" buying 4000 of the $60 calls in November. No dipshits, it was me, and they're part of a trade I put on with puts sold lower for a credit rolling down my 43 short puts to 38 in December. Carry on plebes

@blondesnmoney @PurpleDrink_LLC ?

Cool video but that fucking flip phone is insane 😂

🤣

@JohnDoeKnowsGuy Dumb luck I got assigned this on Friday.

@DjAlexGregory Ehh I mema 90. They are 70 / 90

The short interest on $four is still very high at 60% as of half an hour ago. ANY good news on war front and this will continue up parabolic. Still cheap and zero reason to exit.