Laz is on BlueSky
44.8K posts
@Ellis_Good
Specialist Paramedic in Primary care, loving husband, father and photographer.
What is a sound or smell that doesn’t exist anymore, but 30 years ago was so common it was considered background noise?
Status of spring greening well ahead of schedule for much of the nation so far
BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed. It is no longer open. It is something the world has never seen before: a permissioned corridor run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, priced at $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan. Three ships transited in the last 24 hours. Three. Out of a pre-war average of 60 per day. Total throughput: 310,000 deadweight tonnes. Three percent of normal. Four hundred vessels are waiting outside the strait right now. One hundred and fifty tankers. One hundred and twenty bulk carriers. One hundred and thirty others. Waiting for permission from the IRGC Navy to enter a 5-nautical-mile channel between Larak and Qeshm islands inside Iranian territorial waters. This is how the gate works. A vessel operator contacts approved intermediaries with IRGC connections, submitting full documentation: IMO number, ownership chain, cargo manifest, destination, crew list. The intermediaries forward the package to the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for sanctions screening, cargo alignment checks that prioritise oil over all other commodities, and geopolitical vetting. The toll is approximately $2 million per tanker. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels, that is $1 per barrel. Preferred currency: yuan. If the vessel passes, the IRGC issues a clearance code and route instructions. Upon approach, VHF radio hail, AIS verification, patrol boat escort. One ship at a time. Through the narrowest channel of the most important waterway on Earth. Iranian crude is still flowing. Approximately 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China, at near pre-war levels. Iran’s own oil transits the strait it controls. The blockade applies to everyone else. Iran is simultaneously the gatekeeper and the primary beneficiary. The toll funds the IRGC. The IRGC maintains the gate. The gate generates the toll. The circle is self-sustaining. Now look at what is NOT transiting. Fertiliser. Gulf nations supply 49 percent of the world’s exported urea. Ammonia requires the natural gas that Qatar declared Force Majeure on and that Iranian strikes disrupted at South Pars. Effectively zero fertiliser vessels have received approval through the permissioned corridor. The IRGC is prioritising oil because oil generates revenue. Fertiliser does not. The molecules that feed four billion people are trapped behind a gate that only opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. The yuan preference is the structural shift that outlasts the war. Every tanker that pays in yuan instead of dollars establishes a precedent. Every precedent weakens the petrodollar architecture that has governed energy trade since 1974. The IRGC is not just blocking a strait. It is building an alternative payment rail under live fire. The $2 million toll in yuan is not a fee. It is a proof of concept for a post-dollar energy settlement system, stress-tested in the most extreme conditions imaginable: a three-front war with the world’s largest military. The world’s central banks are trapped by the same strait: the Fed cannot cut, the ECB is hiking, the BOJ is tightening. Six countries are rationing fuel. Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 27-year high. Slovenia has QR codes at the pump. South Korea is barring government vehicles one day per week. And behind all of it, 400 ships wait outside a 5-nautical-mile channel for a clearance code from the IRGC Navy, payable in a currency that is not the dollar. Twenty percent of the world’s oil supply. Controlled by a VHF radio call and a yuan transfer. The strait did not close. It changed ownership. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
This is absolutely insane: At 7:04 AM ET today, President Trump said “the US and Iran have had productive discussions" to end the Iran War. By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 surged +240 points adding +$2 TRILLION in market cap. 27 minutes later, Iran completely denied all of President Trump's claims and said there has been "no contact" with the US. By 8:00 AM ET. the S&P 500 had fallen -120 points erasing -$1 trillion in market cap. That's a $3 TRILLION swing market cap in 56 minutes, just in the S&P 500. What is happening here?
BREAKING: Pentagon officials weigh deployment of airtroops to Iran, per NYT.
The last 11 years have been the hottest years ever recorded. Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest than at any time in observed history, with heat reaching deeper into the ocean. This is the Global #StateOfClimate 2025. Read: bit.ly/4ds4r2V #WorldMetDay
Je relis mon post d’hier… et j’hallucine toujours autant. Je viens surtout de réaliser... que la science n'avait même pas imaginé et donc étudié ces cas de figure : ➡️Ce que font 30 à 40°C sur des bourgeons encore en dormance hivernale ou sur la floraison d'un cerisier ? (non, mais suis-je vraiment en train de me demander ça... ?) ➡️Sur des animaux en pleine hibernation ? ➡️Sur des arbres qui n’ont pas encore accumulé leur besoin en froid ? En fait, je n'en sais rien du tout ! Et je ne pensais pas un jour me poser cette question... Le pire, c'est que ça va durer. La carte si dessous donne l'anomalie sur 7 jours. On est passé de végétaux en plein dormance estivale à un stress thermique extrême sans même avoir émis de feuilles... 🤯
@LeonSimons8 This is disturbing to say the least.
