Emil Dimanchev

New paper! Are electricity markets aligned with decarbonization goals? We show how the inadequate long-term contracting in many markets can hinder decarbonization and lead to sub-optimally little clean energy investment. Open access: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@JesseJenkins @Atomicrod Stay tuned!

"But prices for capacity commitments with a term of just one year don't send power plant builders a sufficient signal to invest in power generation systems that last for many decades and require financing that must be repaid within 2-4 decades." We completely agree on this! Capacity markets are quite inadequate at providing long-term hedging and revenue certainty necessary to finance long-term investments, especially in capital-intensive assets. And especially when you change the rules every few years, compress your auction cycle so it's really just one year ahead (as it is now in PJM works through backlog), and when you set somewhat arbitrary administrative capacity values on different resources rather than let resources choose how much capacity to obligate for performance... @EmilDimanchev and I are working on new modeling techniques to shed more light on how these constructs work and fail to work at managing risk exposure for new electricity capacity of different types.

This was expected, this is going to sting. Expect electricity bills to continue to rise in the region and energy affordability concerns to be top of mind at kitchen tables and for politicians (at least the shrewd ones)

@HMcJeon @noahqk @bataille_chris I am only here long enough to say, come to BlueSky and post there.

I obivoulsly completely disagree with every single word @noahqk and @bataille_chris said in this paper. So naturally, I should make a thread. but then there's no one left here to read it... 1/

@e2dot7182818284 bsky.app/profile/emildi…

@EmilDimanchev I guess on the not dead bird app? Do you have a link ?

Denmark failed to attract bids for offshore wind last week. Why? My research suggests an explanation: countries that do not address investment risk, e.g. via long-term contracting, will see less renewable investment and ultimately slower decarbonization. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Multiple market failures are hindering decarbonization, including inefficiencies in financial markets. New @EcologicDC report provides a good synthesis, and details ways to improve climate-related industrial policy in the EU. ecologic.eu/19908 #energytwitter #econtwitter

@infornomics @leon_heckmann 😅

@EmilDimanchev @leon_heckmann It's always quite fascinating how academics react to poeple communicating that the stuff they write is actually read by someone ;)

I think we need more heterodox research on the energy transition towards renewables including concepts from financial markets, market design and investment. If you know good papers/articles on it, please do the Lord's work 👇

@infornomics @leon_heckmann That's quite the dedication to reading literature! Get better!

@EmilDimanchev @leon_heckmann Thank you very much, I needed something to read while still recovering from the cold I had ;)

@infornomics @leon_heckmann Another recommendation in this direction is Laurens de Vries' work, e.g.: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@infornomics @leon_heckmann Daniel Johansson is also doing interesting work, here with Jinxi Yang: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Y'all should come over.

On the bright side, we now have an answer to the Fermi Paradox

Good Judgment's @superforecaster panel currently has 54% odds that Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday. Of the seven major swing states, Trump is currently ahead in four and Harris leads in three, just pushing Harris to 270 electoral votes if non-swing states go as expected.

Just in case anybody else wants to download their Twitter/X data - it's still possible! x.com/EmilDimanchev/…

@Eamon_Melodies And a few other previous works that we discuss briefly in the introduction of the preprint: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

@Eamon_Melodies Other colleagues in this field have included various kinds of policy risk though. For example this work showed how risk aversion can lead to more renewables as a hedge against stringent climate policy: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Power demand is growing again! This means added risk from high electricity costs. How can we mitigate such risks? In a new preprint led by Lars Nygaard, we explore this question and find that risk-aware planning calls for more renewables and storage. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…