Eric Jackson

I’m long Peloton at $4. $345M in free cash flow. $1.18B in cash (67% of market cap). 7 insiders bought in the last 90 days. I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.

@iamjohnbaiano @AMarginCall Ha… haven’t looked at that one in a while!

@ericjackson @AMarginCall I thought it was going to be $JMIA as the next 100 bagger - Ok EJax, I see you !!

Uploading a new premium video now for more on my PTON thesis. This is the full breakdown behind the PTON thesis — the transcripts, churn math, and what actually needs to happen on May 8 for this to work. Most of what people are focused on right now isn’t the real signal.

@howardlindzon Foley was awful

@ericjackson so bummed how badly this was run at peak...seems impossible they could blow it this badly

I’m long Peloton at $4. $345M in free cash flow. $1.18B in cash (67% of market cap). 7 insiders bought in the last 90 days. I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.

@howardlindzon 🤣 we need to workshop it at the next fireside chat!

Opendoor should merge with peloton and gove one away with every home sold... starts as a bike...ends as furniture...

A few people asked why I dropped a 9,000-word Peloton piece today. Friday. Market down. Nobody paying attention. — Good ideas don’t wait for the right day. They show up when they show up. — If it’s real, people will find it.

@Danarriola13 hey to each his own... no worries... we will see... thx a lot

I usually like your analysis, but I’m not buying Peloton. They got a big COVID bump, and fitness is full of fads. At the end of the day, it’s still just a bike with a screen. I also feel we are headed into a recession and if so the last thing people want to buy is a peloton… What I’m seeing now is a shift toward community—people want to get out, connect, and be part of something. That’s why run clubs and group fitness are taking off.

The market thinks Peloton is dead. The CEO is buying stock. That gap matters. Day 220.

Thanks for all the messages. There are clearly still a LOT of Peloton fans out there. Although I love finding 100-baggers, I do short stocks for time to time. On my substack yesterday, I published a 7500 piece on the private credit space and why I'm short FSK and OWL eventhorizoniq.substack.com/p/pebbles

20 years ago today. Amusing that adults now treat flip phones and iPod as virtues rather than vices.

Correction: the Form 4 filings I referenced were option exercises, not open market purchases. I've updated the full piece. The thesis is unchanged — $345M FCF, 5x multiple, improving churn, Chewy comp. But the insider framing was wrong and I should have checked the transaction codes. Updated piece on the Substack.

Correction: the Form 4 filings I referenced were option exercises, not open market purchases. I've updated the full piece. Thanks to @mylesgrote for flagging. The thesis is unchanged — $345M FCF, 5x multiple, improving churn, Chewy comp. But the insider framing was wrong and I should have checked the transaction codes. Updated piece on the Substack.

This thread is the surface. The full 9000 word write-up goes deeper: all 26 transcripts what changed across the 3 CEOs churn + subscriber math comp tables vs CHWY / ROKU / SONO what would actually break the thesis I wanted to see if the signal held up under real scrutiny. 👇 eventhorizoniq.substack.com/p/345-million-…

@TSOH_Investing Fair point, Alex. The insider characterization was wrong — I've corrected it. Appreciate the accountability. Will read your piece.

You're right — I checked the filings and the transaction codes are M (exercise) and S (sale), not P (purchase). I've corrected the piece. Appreciate the catch. The core thesis doesn't change — $345M FCF at 5x with improving churn — but the insider framing was wrong and I should have verified the transaction codes before publishing. That's on me. Interesting that we land in the same place on the trade. Your $12.90 base case via buyback is a path I hadn't modeled. Worth watching.

This piece is just patently wrong. The last insider to purchase $pton was Nick Caldwell in 2024, and he's since disposed of most of that position. With that said, I think he will be right, but due to a likely stock repurchase program that will be announced in May ER. A $400M program takes out ~25% of SO at current levels. Base case is ~$12.90 over next 12 months, best case ~$20.

@mininthemoney @_amonsanto @Opendoor @nejatian @rabois 😂😂🤣

@_amonsanto @Opendoor @nejatian @ericjackson @rabois lol why did you tag these people. you want them to comp your losses?

I have liquidated my $OPEN position yesterday. @Opendoor is a great company however, too much macro headwind. Will buy back when it hits $2. cc: @nejatian @ericjackson @rabois