@JohnLoc18 Join powertrades it is unironically the best server i learned a lot
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Fredo
798 posts
Hey everyone, I have been in mental breakdown past two days and finally to calm myself down. I never cried too hard in my life.
Many of you knew me as the guy who turned $300 into $200,000–$300,000 in just a few months trading $SPY.
Lately there’s been a lot of positive and negative noise around me, but today hit the hardest. My biggest mistake was pure ignorance and sizing way too big despite solid advice from experienced traders here. I ignored it at times, and today I paid the full price for it.
To be honest, I’m left with $10,000. It’s only April, with 8 months left in 2026. I’m determined to build it back up.
This lesson will stay with me forever. To all the traders out there: please use my story as a warning. Don’t be like me, control your emotions and your size.
And I will continue to post about $SPY and others, I deeply appreciate every single one of you on here.🙇♂️
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Yo wanted to give a heads up if this helps anyone reading this in terms of the stock market currently or financial decision making.
Trump's upcoming speech soon has the potential to cause a lot of financial pain and damage for everyone in different ways, whether you're involved in the stock market or not. This will unfold slowly to show the ripple effects.
If you're a 5-10 year long term investor things are chilling don't want people to panic but for the short-mid term I do want to warn people of the possible multiple downsides.
For reference before I go in-depth explaining all the factors I first tweeted a heads up on Nov 2024 saying how Trump winning is great for the stock market and it's a good time to buy stocks because the market was filled with dopamine and going to buy stocks senselessly because he's pro corporation and anti-worker. Don't care if people say I'm bias, these are just facts and economic policies. SP500 went up 6% for 3 months after he won.
I didn't post after that on twitter much about finance because people were undermining a lot even though I've done this for 15 years since my image is only "the jhin guy streamer" and I rarely share my background. I do this full-time now incase people didn't know and that's why I'm not active. However, mutuals reached out and I helped them. The main reason for Trump being rly bad for the economy is his idea of tariffs. I know he's braindead enough to do tariffs so I told people I recommend taking profits in advance. I have screenshots that I'll post below with names covered to show timestamps, but I realized the banks would convince other mutuals not to sell and that tariffs are good and nothing will happen and the market proceeded to slowly bleed and crash 20% for 1.5 months about 2 weeks after I told mutuals to take profit.
I know I'm a streamer, but before I dropped out to go full-time streaming I got accepted into UNC Kenan-Flagler which is a top 20 business school. With that being said, I'll lay out a lot of the things people aren't realizing or noticing.
There's a big slow building oil crisis. The longer this goes the more painful it is for everyone in the globe. Higher gas prices, higher food prices, higher goods prices, higher everything. Almost everything is indirectly or directly made with oil somewhere in the supply chain.
The main reason oil hasn't skyrocketed yet is because Trump constantly lies and downplays the war and how long it will go. He said we won the war and that it would be over 2 weeks ago. The more expensive oil gets the more the global economy slowly breakdowns until the house of cards falls down. Oil hitting $150 was a big contributor to the 2008 financial crisis and global recession for reference. It's currently $100-$105.
Now that you understand how oil ties to it all after Trump announced his speech on the update in iran the prime minister of Australia and the UK held their speechs ahead of time out of nowhere. They were trying to get ahead to get their citizens prepared for what might happen which is for oil to go even higher than it is now. I watched both of them LIVE and to an average person it just sounds like they're saying we're working on making oil low and gonna do our best to help you guys, but what they're actually doing is trying to get ahead of the problem and mentally prepare everyone for things to get much worse. You can tell that through their tone and body language and careful word choices. Very tense and very stressed.
What would be the one thing to make it worse? If Trump sends his ground troops to Iran which some of you have likely seen float around in the news already. He will most likely announce this tonight and downplay it as "it'll be fast and we'll end the war fast". If he does this then the Iran war will escalate even further, and most likely drag this war longer which will contribute to oil rising as the weeks go by. Iran also said even if we leave them alone until we agree to have a "permanent peace" they're considering leaving the strait of Hormoz closed longer. This strait accounts for 20-25% of the world's oil trade. So, they can technically hold us hostage if they want to and force a recession onto the US as "punishment".
The stock market is filled with people who are emotional because the stock market is a lot of psychology so at first they might believe trump when he says it'll be fast. However, if any small mistake in his plan blows up in his face and this war gets worse + takes longer then oil will spike up and people will panic sell very fast. Trump and his administration have already manipulated the headlines a lot to delay oil rising in price by constantly promising people the war will be over soon, however we're over a month in and the market is slowly believing him less and less and realizing this might not be a "fast war" afterall.
Now, this isn't the only hidden problem. There's also the danger that there's currently a 31 trillion dollar ponzi scheme that's ready to breakdown at any moment with private credit and private equity firms like blackrock led by larry fink which is already having issues and denying investors to withdraw. Banks got banned from having these kind of investment setups when they caused the 2008 financial crisis with housing so private companies decided to fill the gap and take that market for themselves. Larry fink himself said in an interview that "If oil hits $150 that will cause an economic recession and bring a lot of things down" that way he has something to blame for the fallout/damage and not the ponzi scheme him, his friends, and the other private credit and private equity firms have done by making sketchy deals and loans and hiding the truth about their numbers and valuations. This one is harder to time because it's decay will happen faster if oil skyrockets and if oil doesnt then the private system will breakdown later this year or next year and be another financial hurdle for people to navigate.
They're also lying about how many american soldiers have died so far. If Trump rly goes through with sending ground troops, I imagine it's a suicide mission and that they'll say we won and we're leaving because they need to save face since the public polls are awful for him. For people who think and say why would Trump run it down? Well, he has blackmail on him so he has to go through with it and he can't backdown. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just observing everything from multiple angles and perspectives.
If I missed anything I'll edit it in or write it in the replies. I've personally sold 40% of my holdings for profits 2 weeks ago and was waiting things out, but now I see there's room for things to potentially become much worse. So, I decided to give people a heads up since I usually just keep this to myself and my clients. I hope this is useful to some of you to know the potential downturn for these next few weeks or next few months. Trump can downplay this and the market might believe him for a few days but, I'm not taking the bait or the risk. If any mutuals have questions you can always just hit me up.
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@xtraprolificxd dw remember u added me after the game “i need to see what u look like” followed me i dropped ig and unadded u on league dw ur def mogging bro samy :)
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@B23RDSR50 @xtraprolificxd lets derank account to iron 4 and go 100 wr d4?
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Patch 26.4 Preview!
Overall
- Things are looking pretty stable; we're seeing some pretty marked game time reductions (probably from) the turret plate bulwarking reductions
- We're still waiting to see the impact of the faelights and early vision changes on Jungle, but need a full patch to draw some conclusions there (and on the early bounty changes)
- After this patch, things are likely to be in a pretty good spot overall, would love to hear from y'all what other things need changing
- We've gotten a few initial surveys back from players and Top and Bot have been reporting higher satisfaction and power, while JG, Mid, Supp have been either neutral or lower sentiment.
- This was pretty much our goal, but there's still some fine tuning to do, expect some of that in some of the coming patches
Systems
- Hexoptics hasn't really managed to pick up much of an audience, so we're making some adjustments to make its damage amp passive more accessible to more champions along with some other tuning adjustments
Champion Changes
- First Stand is coming up on 26.5; we're making a lot of changes for both general balance and hitting a few of the other outliers/forgotten champions
- There isn't really a major theme here, other than trying to adjust some of the outliers that especially have benefited overly from some of the systems changes (items or otherwise)
- Some of our unconventional junglers are also a bit worse for wear, so we're giving them a bit of a bump up
- Mel and Zed are in a decent spot after the hotfix buffs, so we're letting them sit for a bit to stabilize
Challenger+ Ranked
- We made some adjustments this patch to increase queue times in Challenger to get better match quality
- We're going to walk this back a bit as even though match quality has factually improved a bit, players are still feeling like those matches aren't higher quality, while having longer queue times
- Going to walk it back about halfway as a result
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