Halloween

@Im_Sdog 你不捡，那我们吃什么

最近没活了，聊聊这个五百块的三星洋垃圾手机 Galaxy F62 / M62，能德辅道什么体验 首先： - 7000mAh，三星消费级手机最大（你看这 S Ultra 就是逊） - 极为先进的 3.5mm 耳机孔 - 人性化的 SIM 三选二卡槽 - 极为亮眼的屏幕（物理） 以及： - 能效感人的 Exynos 9825 SoC - 残废的 Camera2 API 支持（装不了谷歌相机） - 素质不明的 60Hz 屏 - 远远落后的 4G 网络 - 比 Pixel 还辣鸡的信号 - 远没 Pixel 多的手机壳选择 - 底部单扬声器 总之是一部优缺点鲜明、趣味十足的洋垃圾，我非常喜欢，下次不捡了。

@HanyangWang 比这个雕像更让我惊奇的是，大佐不介意别人叫他大佐。

2020 年十一，大佐和我临时起意一脚油开到了逊克，来看黑龙江。在江边看到了这个震撼我五百年的巨大雕塑。从此我的人生就被大豆打扰了。

@JarrettYe 我为百合立大旗

快成为知乎百合头子了（bushi

No Safe Harbor: Iranian Drone Strike on VLCC in Dubai Signals Total War on Gulf Energy Assets Last night, an Iranian drone struck and set ablaze a fully loaded tanker in the port of Dubai, demonstrating that Tehran considers all energy assets in the Gulf as legitimate targets 🧵

The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and #Iran and the near-total closure of the #Strait of #Hormuz isn’t just stranding significant volumes of refined products in the #Persian Gulf. It’s also resulting in potentially extensive and long-lasting damage to some refineries there and trapping crude oil that Asian refiners depend on. Read the full story here: rbnenergy.com/daily-posts/bl…

@yihong0618 建议改名AI最忠实的走狗，一股AI的味道。

Another massive battery storage record in California (CAISO) yesterday, March 29 🔋 At 7pm, batteries reached 12.3 GW of output, meeting 42.8% of demand! And it's not just a short peak anymore. Batteries stayed above 20% of grid supply from 5.50pm to 9.35pm, almost four hours.

@tison1096 现在也一样，如何巧妙的通过ai获得，和过去Google检索一样是个技术活。

大学毕业那一年，我跟室友感慨，说如果大学期间我唯一学到了什么受用终身的技能，就是知道如何在 Google 上用正确的关键词和条件找到我需要的资料。 很多时候问题的解法都是现成的，或者可以组合现有公共知识实现。现在有了 AI，我掌握的搜索能力被全面超越。但是如何用 AI 完成查找+组合，agent 的话就是再补充一部分 feedback loop 和授权，成为了新时代的 Googling 技能。在这个技能的熟练度上，大家的起点是平等的。

🚨 The world's biggest oil companies have a problem they don't talk about publicly. They're consuming more oil than they're finding. After a decade of underinvestment the bill is coming due Every major is moving: 🇺🇸 ExxonMobil doubling down on Guyana 🇺🇸 Chevron under pressure to replace reserves 🇬🇧 Shell warning of future supply gaps publicly 🇬🇧 bp accelerating approvals, simplifying to move faster 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies pulling capital BACK from offshore wind into oil 🇮🇹 Eni exploration as primary growth engine 🇳🇴 Equinor pushing faster drill cycles 🇺🇸 ConocoPhillips expanding into new LNG basins globally Notice what they're all doing at the same time. That's an industry that knows something🛢️ Here's the uncomfortable truth: 📌 US shale is plateauing 📌 Hormuz just showed how fragile supply really is 📌 Demand hasn't dropped at $100 oil 📌 The buffer is gone The next energy crisis won't come from demand destruction. It'll come from a supply system that spent 10 years not investing in itself. The Full analysis in my latest article👇 themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-if-the-…

@fangboya 街道口那么多吃的，食堂还是差点意思

昨天在武大食堂吃的豪华晚餐，算起来的话是31块钱。

@langheying 有种当初快手收购acfun的即视感

The core analytical error in the "primary energy fallacy" argument, that renewables plus electrification will dramatically cut total energy needs, is that it treats energy as interchangeable. A TWh of gas isn't just energy. It's dispatchable, energy-dense, and seasonally storable. A TWh of solar is none of those things without substantial infrastructure to make it so. The leap from "EV motors are more efficient than combustion engines" to "the transition is easier than you think" skips over the hardest parts of the problem. Electrification can eliminate some conversion losses while introducing new ones, like curtailment, storage round-trip losses, overbuild, and grid expansion. If we look at how much infrastructure is needed to support an electric heat pump with renewables in the dead of winter, we'll see that gas delivers far more value than a Sankey diagram shows.

I moderated a roundtable earlier this week at a storage conference on energy storage + load growth in PJM. The main Q: CAISO & ERCOT have ~10,000 MW+ of storage each. PJM has <500 MW. Wtf??!! Several developers & investors raised great points worth sharing. 1- Renewables penetration - This is an obvious one, wind + solar is not huge in PJM unlike ERCOT or CAISO creating less volatility. PJM States import a lot of RECs from MISO - But hey, SPP has HUGE amounts of wind, LOT of negative pricing, and less batteries than PJM!! Clearly RE penetration is not the only reason and anyway this will change with lot of solar coming online 2- ELCC risk - With not much energy arbitrage, capacity market is important for revenues. But storage accreditation is variable and projections are heading down. For 4-hr, from ~60% ELCC today to just 25%(!!) in 2032. Investors are obviously wary - One solution: allow storage & large loads to contract resource adequacy risk bilaterally, or BIGPAL. Load flexes if storage runs out. No impact on the rest of the market, maximum contractual flexibility & innovation - Another one that came up A LOT: LDES. Short duration ELCC risk is driving lot of interest in long duration storage (12hr+) that would get ~100% ELCC. I was surprised to see so many developers mention LDES. Keep an eye on this one, particularly with LDES mandates also under discussion in several PJM States. 3- Storage bidding in the energy market - B/c of the market monitor’s focus on market power mitigation, batteries cannot bid their opportunity cost in PJM. They can only bid their charging cost. This is crazy and needs to change - Thankfully, PJM has recognized this and is undertaking a stakeholder process to allow short duration resources to bid their opportunity cost. Freedom & markets! 🇺🇸 4- Surplus IX Service - Can wind/solar developers use their surplus IX capacity to add batteries? A developer pointed out this is completely unusable for wind. Because the capacity injection rights are SO LOW compared to wind ELCC, adding storage has no RA value. - It’s the opposite for solar though, expect to see more movement there 5- Future outlook: A LOT of storage is coming on - 2,300 MW was approved in the RRI expedited queue - 6,400 MW already has an IX agreement across Fast Lane + TC1 queue as per great data from Modo Energy - Load growth, IX queue reforms, as well as mandates from MD, NJ, VA are going to keep pushing this - Co-location docket will also create opportunities for storage to directly site with large loads, if PJM can expand some of the configuration options

🚨 Iran built a secret pipeline to bypass Hormuz It's working but it still isn't enough Goreh-Jask pipeline: 685 miles, 1M bpd capacity. Exits east of Hormuz straight to open ocean. Since the war: 11-12M barrels shipped to China overall Pre war Iran was doing 2-3M bpDAY! The pipeline works but the terminals don't... You can't export what you can't load. The war can end. The damage can't be undone overnight. Full story in my latest article, link here👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

If you've been watching oil prices and wondering why Dubai crude is falling while Brent keeps climbing...here's what's actually driving it. Asian refiners are switching their hedges on crude purchases from Dubai to ICE Brent. For decades, Asian buyers hedged against Dubai crude because most of their oil came from the Middle East and Dubai was the regional pricing benchmark. But Dubai just spiked to an all-time high of $169.75/bbl, way above Brent at ~$105. S&P Platts pulled 3 of 5 crude grades from the Dubai benchmark because of Hormuz disruptions, which distorted the price upward. If you're a refiner, why hedge against a $170 benchmark when you can hedge against a $105 one? Same protection, lower cost. ICE Brent is the global benchmark, originating as a North Sea European contract. It now includes US crude (WTI Midland was added to the basket as America became a major exporter), which makes it a natural alternative when Dubai pricing becomes distorted. The hedge migration creates a two way price effect. Money leaving Dubai drains liquidity and pushes the price down. That same money flowing into Brent adds liquidity and bids the price up. This is why the DME Oman contract has been declining while Brent stays firm. Same money, different direction. Some Asian refiners are now asking Saudi Aramco to switch its entire pricing formula from Dubai to Brent. If Aramco moves, the whole structure of how Middle East crude is sold to Asia changes.

This map shows Saudi Arabia's entire energy system and what's already been hit 👇 🔴 Ras Tanura largest oil terminal droned 🔴 Abqaiq world's largest oil processing plant targeted 🔴 Safaniya major offshore field disrupted 🔴 Samref Yanbu refinery hit Saudi's only backup: 🟡 One pipeline already maxed out 📩 Subscribe to my newsletter,and do not miss my latest article , What If the Oil Glut Never Existed?👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

Now that many of you have heard about Kharg Island, Iran, here are some interesting oil-related facts: - The island itself doesn't produce oil. There is oil it pipes in from its offshore fields but most of the oil comes from the oilfields on the mainland. - Having shipped out 344 tankers carrying 572 million barrels over the past year at a rate of 1.567 million barrels per day, Kharg Island accounted for 95% of Iran's crude oil exports. - There are 55 crude oil storage and blending tanks which can capacitate ~34.25 million barrels combined. The usual occupancy swings between 33-66% full because either extremes do not benefit operations. - There are 9 operational crude oil berths for tankers to load at. Three are located at the jetty island off Kharg's western shore. It's called the Azarpad. It can load three VLCC supertankers simultaneously; 2 million barrels each. - The T-Jetty (named for its shape) on the eastern side can handle up to two VLCC's, two Suezmax (1 million barrels each), one Aframax (730K barrels) and 1 Handymax (350K barrels). - The island's ability to quickly load tankers with oil came out of a necessity during the pre-Islamic Revolution reign of Shah Pahlavi, when Iran's oil production peaked at over 6.6 million barrels per day. During 2025, production was estimated to be ~3.5 Mbpd. - During the Iran-Iraq War, Saddam Hussein had bombed the island many times and had even destroyed multiple storage tanks, but tankers kept loading and exporting around 1.5 million barrels per day. - The island also has a small jetty in its southeastern corner which outputs LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) along with naphtha; which finds broad use in the oil sector. - A smaller backup site came online in 2021 along the Gulf of Oman, just south of the Strait of Hormuz. It is called the Jask Oil & Gas Terminal, which isn't in the city of Jask, but in a sandy spot west of it called Kooh Mobarak. This site is fed by a 1,000 km long pipeline originating up the coastline, in Goreh. So far this month, two tankers loaded there; which is extraordinary as it has only loaded one tanker a year up until the latest war broke out. - Over the past eight years since 2018-04-01, we have tracked 2,155 departures from Kharg Island carrying a combined total of 3.187 billion barrels, which works out to 1.093 million barrels per day. - We tag tankers daily on satellite imagery, identify them on behalf of our clients with the help of our visual search engine and then continue tracking their movements. With a quarter million images and nearly 10,000 tankers visually profiled, we (mostly) have very little trouble identifying the 1,485 active tankers engaging in frequent sanctions violations; also known as The Dark Fleet. This satellite image was captured today (2026-03-27) by the European Space Agency Copernicus-2 Sentinel Program. Kharg Island is located at 29.23103, 50.31437.

很详细的回忆录，建议看完

The cat tries to use telepathy to cheat on the test, but the duck didnt study either.

Iran’s state-backed Fars News Agency has released a target list of energy infrastructure within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that they plan to strike if the U.S. conducts a ground operation against the strategically and economically important Kharg Island or any other Iranian territory. These include desalination plants, nuclear power plants, and other power hubs across the UAE.