Hard Alpha Capital

Fully exited the remaining $AAOI position at +200% and rotated the profits into $SMHN. Current holdings: $BTC $TSM $ASML $DELL $SOI $SMHN $BABA $BIDU $BYDDY $HIMS $KSPI $4COP 0% cash — fully invested 🔥

Quick nuance on the Unitree exposure, the 3.83% stake isn't held directly by Shoucheng. It's held by Beijing Robot Fund, which Shoucheng co-manages with Beijing state capital. The fund's LP is Beijing's Govt Guidance Fund + other private LPs. Shoucheng's actual cut of that fund isn't publicly disclosed. Do you know their % in the fund? That's the key variable for sizing the Unitree call option.

Established a position in $697:HK, Shoucheng Holdings. Call option on Unitree (and other Chinese robotics companies, they had other ones in the Spring Gala too), and an airport parking company that isn't terrible either. Chinese investors already bid this up, but R/R not bad.

@cultivatedbeta Good thesis but the math needs a closer look: The 3.83% in Unitree is held by the Beijing Robot Industry Development Investment Fund, not by Shoucheng directly. Shoucheng is co-GP of the fund alongside Beijing Guoguan (state-owned capital). So the 3.83% Unitree stake belongs to the FUND, not 100% to Shoucheng. Shoucheng's actual penetration stake in Unitree depends on their % ownership of the fund, which is NOT publicly disclosed. Exact allocation to THIS fund = unknown. Bottom line: $280M assumes 100% fund ownership. Real number is likely materially lower. Could be $50-150M depending on Shoucheng's LP %. Do you have a source for their actual % in the fund? That's the key variable.

697 HK: Shoucheng Holdings is a play on Unitree IPO scheduled for Q2 2026. They own ~4% and if my math is mathing, Unitree IPO at $7bn translates into $280m for 697 on a $1848m market cap

Fully exited the remaining $AAOI position at +200% and rotated the profits into $SMHN. Current holdings: $BTC $TSM $ASML $DELL $SOI $SMHN $BABA $BIDU $BYDDY $HIMS $KSPI $4COP 0% cash — fully invested 🔥

PORTFOLIO UPDATE 💼 Trimmed ½ $HIMS for a quick ~50% profit 🎯. Keeping the rest of the position for now, peptides regulation tailwind still in play with recent FDA reviews easing and potential short squeeze vibes. Potential remains 💉 Added +30k $SOIT last Friday (Soitec), already up ~10%, keeping the photonics momentum play ⚡️💡 Thinking about selling the remaining $AAOI @+200%. Recent ATM offerings + execution risk makes me consider stock already in price

PORTFOLIO UPDATE 💼 Trimmed ½ $AAOI @ ~150% profit 🎯 Added $COPX for copper/AI electrification play ⚡ Added $HIMS peptides reg tailwind +40% short float. Rebound shot 💉 Weight % $BTC (Bitcoin 💰) → 29.9% $COPX (Copper Miners ⛏️) → 5.1% $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor 🤖) → 10.3% $ASML (ASML 🔬) → 5.9% $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics 💡) → 7.1% $DELL (Dell 💻) → 7.1% $BABA (Alibaba 🛍️) → 7.6% $BIDU (Baidu 🧠) → 5.0% $BYDDY (BYD 🏎️) → 5.1% $KSPI (Kaspi.kz 💳) → 5.4% $HIMS (Hims 💊) → 6.1% CASH 💵 → 5.4%

@QualityInvest5 $ADBE down from here because AI does Adobe's work x100 faster and x10 cheaper (or often free).

$ADBE trades at 13.7x FCF excluding stock based comp How does this now work from here?

📊 **Earnings Review: $AAOI – Key Photonics Holding in My Portfolio** Q4/FY 2025 Results Analysis: ✅ Q4 Revenue: $134.3M (+34% YoY), driven by strong demand for optical transceivers in AI data centers and broadband upgrades. The real catalyst for the post-earnings move was the forward guidance: $AAOI is aggressively expanding capacity to capture AI & data center growth, with a clear focus on next-gen 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers. Management emphasized that **capacity** — not demand — is currently the main constraint, and highlighted significant ongoing investments in manufacturing infrastructure. Mid-2027 Outlook (from earnings call): “Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million, 800G revenue approximately $217 million, and 1.6 terabit revenue approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products.” → That equates to a potential ~$4.5B annualized run-rate 🚀 Risks to watch: ⚠️ Possible delays in the 800G ramp-up (e.g., firmware-related issues seen in Q4 2025) ⚠️ Supply chain dependencies However, AAOI’s vertical integration positions the company well for gross margin expansion toward 20%+ at scale. One notable headwind – potential future dilution: - Shares outstanding: ~68.3 million (up from 49.4 million at end-2024 due to equity issuances and conversions) - Amazon warrants: 7.95 million shares at $23.70 exercise price (1.32 million vested upon signing; remainder vests based on purchase milestones) - Debt: $125 million 2.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 Still confident in the long-term thesis. Closely monitoring execution on capacity ramps and customer traction.

@yonki_mercados Nagarro solo sale porque el paquete de @alex_estebaranz lleva años ultra-concentrado en esa acción. El vendehumos se dedica a captar a novatos y boomers para cobrarles las comisiones fijas de gestión y venderles cursos, mientras sus fondos acumulan rentabilidades pésimas.

Influencer financiero perseguido por sus seguidores tras recomendar la compra de Nagarro

@zerohedge Jensen Huang: "Computing demand is growing exponentially, the agentic AI inflection point has arrive” 🚀 Agentic AI means your future self is gonna be unemployed AND roasted by something you paid $2,000 to build 💀

*NVIDIA CEO: CUSTOMERS ARE RACING TO INVEST IN AI COMPUTE *NVIDIA CEO: COMPUTING DEMAND IS GROWING EXPONENTIALLY

Trabajo en el sector de la energía y te lo digo de primera mano: Prysmian es un proveedor de 10/10. Son prácticamente el referente (el go-to) cuando hablamos de cables de alta calidad. Por eso lideran el mercado europeo con una cuota del 20 %. Teniendo en cuenta que pueden seguir subiendo precios y márgenes gracias a la fuerte demanda, aunque lo parezca, NO ESTÁ CARA

Hay que estudiar esta compañía.

$MSFT Why it's been tanking: The market's basically having a full-on existential crisis over Microsoft's **massive AI bet**. They've been dumping insane amounts of cash into AI infrastructure (capex surged hugely, think tens of billions extra for data centers, GPUs, etc.), largely tied to the OpenAI partnership. Problem? Investors are now asking: "Cool story, but where's the money?" Key risks eating at the model: - **Huge spending with delayed/uncertain payoff** — Azure growth slowed a bit (still strong at ~39%, but below peak hype levels), while capex keeps exploding. Wall Street fears they're building AI capacity faster than actual revenue is rolling in → classic "over-investing in the future while the present quarter looks meh." - **Heavy reliance on OpenAI** — Turns out ~45% of their massive cloud backlog is linked to OpenAI commitments. If OpenAI keeps bleeding cash (losses reportedly tripling), can't pay up, or loses ground to competitors like Google/Anthropic/Claude, that's a giant hole in Microsoft's future revenue pipeline. - **AI disruption threat (the "SaaS-pocalypse" vibe)** — Agentic AI and new tools could cannibalize traditional software/subscription revenue. Why pay for Office 365 licenses forever if AI agents start doing the work cheaper/faster? Microsoft is embedding Copilot everywhere to fight this, but skeptics worry it's more "defensive moat-building" than explosive new growth. And let's not forget: the **core Productivity and Business Processes segment** (Excel, Word, PowerPoint, Teams, etc.—the sacred cash cow) makes up roughly **~40-43%** of total revenue (e.g., ~$121B out of $282B in FY2025, and holding around 42% in recent quarters). If agentic AI truly starts replacing spreadsheets, slide decks, and document grinding... poof, there goes a massive chunk of that high-margin recurring revenue. Investors are pricing in the nightmare scenario where AI eats its own lunch.

@Polymarket Finally! Now I can speedrun bankruptcy and end up crying under a bridge in ultra-fast mode. Thanks Polymarket × Chainlink for accelerating my financial ruin 🫡🚀📉

Bitcoin up or down? 5 minute up/down crypto polymarkets are now live. Powered & secured by Chainlink 🤝

$APP Honestly, I was being a bit overdramatic earlier. That said, their ad-based business model is extremely intrusive and exposed to regulatory risk. Even though it’s sitting right in a clear support zone, I genuinely don’t think the potential upside justifies the risk. Time will tell.

@HardAlphaX Capital watch withdrew their short report

@TacticzH “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful… unless the S&P is down 0.8% after lunch, in which case liquidate the kids’ college funds and move to a bunker full of canned beans.” – Warren Buffett

This Warren Buffet quote captures current market sentiment very well.

OpenAI has announced partnerships with consulting companies McKinsey, Accenture, Boston Consulting and Capgemini

PORTFOLIO UPDATE 💼 (weight %) $BTC (Bitcoin 💰) → 30.9% $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor 🤖) → 11.0% $ASML (ASML 🔬) → 6.5% $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics 💡) → 6.7% $DELL (Dell 💻) → 6.0% $BABA (Alibaba 🛍️) → 8.8% $BIDU (Baidu 🧠) → 5.9% $BYDDY (BYD 🏎️) → 5.4% $XIACY (Xiaomi 📱) → 4.4% $KSPI (Kaspi.kz 💳) → 5.4% $NVO (Novo Nordisk 💊) → 4.7% CASH → 4.3%