Josh Snyder, CFA

@mises @jeffdeist Imagine if politicians were still this thoughtful.

*BLUE OWL SHARES FALL 7.6% TO LOWEST INTRADAY LEVEL EVER

Lindsey Graham: "We're going to blow up the things that allow you to function as a nation." Hey Iranians living abroad, who for some reason thought the US and Israeli governments wanted to help the Iranian people, are you starting to see the picture now or are you still deranged

Let's see if investors will buy today's selloff in gold. While an extended war and higher oil prices are bearish for U.S. stocks and bonds, the results of war—soaring debt, rising inflation, recession, higher unemployment, and a housing and financial crisis—are bullish for gold.

Sorry I've been awol lately, yall. I'm in the middle of the slowest-motion move of my life. Of course the regime picks this time to launch a new war. So I haven't been doing as good a job as I wish I could. Then again, so many people are so great on it that I'm basically superfluous at this point anyway. Which is nice.

European Diesel Futures Hit $200 as Iran War Limits Fuel Supply Europe’s diesel futures benchmark hit the highest level since 2022, as the Iran war constrains supply of the fuel that powers the global economy. Futures traded as high as $1,493.25 a ton, more than $200 a barrel, rising as much as 9.4% in London. With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz largely halted, flows of refined products like diesel through the waterway are blocked, while the impact on crude is forcing some refiners to also throttle back output. Traders around the world are scrambling for supplies, with shipments of the fuel being diverted and sent on epic journeys. (Bloomberg)

Oil prices are soaring today. What's most interesting is that West Texas and Brent are both trading just above $109. That is in sharp contrast to the 23% premium Brent traded at in early March. Trump's wrong. Americans will feel the pain of higher prices as much as Europeans.

Read this book:

Trump's speech can be recapped by reading his last 8 Tweets. Iran has already lost. We're gonna keep pounding them, no clear goals, no timeline, no strategy. Get ready...$200 oil is going to seem cheap in about 6 months.

"The speech was embarrassing, depressing, incoherent and full of contradictions". Former senior naval officer Harlan Ullman says Trump’s prime‑time Iran address “did not lay out his case” and argues that “taking out Iran’s infrastructure is not the answer.”

S&P futures -0.9% Nasdaq futures -1.1%

@energee123 @JavierBlas @zerohedge That’s why the word “most” is important.

@JSnyd05 @JavierBlas @zerohedge Cummings makes CNG engines

US nat gas at 6-month low (!!!) While the rest of the world worries about the impact of the US-Iran war on energy costs, American gas consumers enjoy a bonanza. Benchmark US nat gas (Henry Hub) just ended the day at $2.819 per mBtu, the lowest settlement price since September.

Assuming it’s an Israeli attempt, which is an entirely reasonable assumption based on past 30 days, it would seem Bibi wants to sabotage negotiations. (Also an entirely reasonable conclusion based on past 30 years.)

@DavidBCollum @HighbrowHaze Exactly. Broadcom and NVDA were two of the highest P/S companies in the Index. It’s why, by market cap, more than a 1/3 of the S&P trades north of 10x P/S. Eclipsing the 21% of the ‘ol dot com era. We know that worked out well!

@JSnyd05 @HighbrowHaze Just to pick one: NVDA is 21 times price-to-revenue not price-to-earnings and those revenues are fraudulent vendor financed.

I am less worried about the influence of the War in Iran (or on Iran) than I am about this...

@HighbrowHaze @DavidBCollum Huh?

@JSnyd05 @DavidBCollum drops like stocks right? same thing

BREAKING: Tonight, in his 9 PM ET address to the nation, President Trump will declare that the Iran War is "winding down," per POLITICO. Details include: 1. Trump consistently "telegraphed that message" over the past 24 hours 2. The speech is expected to claim that "all military objectives have been met" 3. Trump is expected to "scapegoat" NATO allies for the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz 4. There is still "little evidence" that the US and Iran are "anywhere close to an agreement" US oil prices are still trading at $100/barrel.

They are actively trying to re-write history in real time. Jolani was in ISIS. Assad and Iran fought ISIS. Jolani never fought ISIS.

@HighbrowHaze @DavidBCollum Bro. I own plenty of gold and silver. Not a big deal.

@JSnyd05 @DavidBCollum and nothing wrong having gold and silver and some t-bills to sleep at night if that's what it takes

After their early March plunge on central bank liquidations (Turkey, Russia, Gulf states), gold and silver are on the verge of a bull market from their lows just one week ago.