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Think through this with me.
Most of the entire Washington establishment, especially on the GOP/IRI side, wants regime change in Iran. So does Likud/AIPAC. The NDI/DNC is split but they are putting out this "grassroots street protest" narrative (which is partially true, partially false, and 100% tactical). The Shah's son has been pampered on a Potamic, Maryland villa for twenty years and is primed and ready to assume the throne.
But what Trump did last year was a brilliant scissor move --- on the side of peace. Netanyahu was about to kickstart a war --- to elicit an attack on U.S. personnel in the Gulf --- and the DNI/IRI-neoconservative-Zionist lobbies in Washington were leaning on Trump and the GOP (think Lindsay Graham plus Josh Shapiro), when out of the blue, Trump runs this flashy high-stakes bombing raid against Tehran's nuclear arsenal, in one move stealing the reigns from Bibi, outflanking Mossad, and earning a masterful talking against the regime-change club in Washington --- all while limiting down-range escalation through back channels with the Iranian diplomatic corps.
The thing is --- and I don't have the time to type out all the examples this morning --- this is a strategy Trump has repeatedly used. It's what just happened in Venezuela, for example. Trump sucks the air out of the room with a big violent gesture, but then backs out and negotiates peace quietly behind the scenes. This leaves the war hawk lobbies out-to-dry, while at the same time forcing significant concessions from the negotiating party (who know very how lucky they are Trump blocked more aggressive intervention from Establishment flank).
In other words, you may fail to appreciate the military industrial ecosystem that Trump is managing, and so misattribute agency too singularly to the White House, and thereby misinterpret Trump's motive and intent.
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