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Jacob Feuerstein
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Jacob Feuerstein
@Jacob_Feuer
Meteorologist in the commodities space. @cornellweather alum. Opinions mine alone.
Upper Midwest เข้าร่วม Ekim 2017
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I’ll do it again cause why not
My top 3:
-Enderlin EF5
-Mayfield EF4
-Robinson EF3
TornadoClips@TornadoClipss
What’s the strongest tornadoes of the 2020s? Mayfield??
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@Trough_Digging Can you share more info on the top handful of events?
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The number of deadly but not very-deadly tornadoes has remained steadier over time than I'd have expected.
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Matches closely with every decade's median of tornado activity (as defined by fujita miles)
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To expand on some analysis I did a while ago: median intense tornado location, 1850-2025. From the Ohio Valley pre-20th century to the Plains in the early 1900s, tending gradually towards the southeast thereafter.
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@GumryWX Yeah! We are living in the golden age of private sector meteorology
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Current met students should familiarize themselves with private sector. The NWS isn’t going away, but other avenues may be more interesting. Do yourself a favor and learn about other companies and orgs that do weather. There’s so much more out there than just govt!
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for the record it is currently 5/24/2011
mads 🌪️@dubsinfive
you guys know how we’ve had the debate about the plains outbreak that is our version of the super outbreak we may settle that here shortly
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April 14th, 2012 NWS SPC Risk Contours from the last true widespread Great Plains Tornado Outbreak
Highlighting a threat area 7–8 days out from an event signals meaningful forecaster confidence, not just in the timing, but in the anticipated likelihood of an event occurring.
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@EthanBolziccoWX Can you share some examples of what you're referring to?
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Can we stop being so conservative with our forecasting and wording please
people now would post Birmingham 00z 4/27/11 with the caption “a few strong tornadoes possible”
Call a spade a spade.
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Based on these 23Z graphics, where would you expect the highest tornado threat to be and can you guess the date? Answer later tonight 🤔
Below are 300mb, 850mb, mixed-layer CAPE, and surface observations.
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@DerekOrtt April 3 1974 had one more tornado with a path length >50mi
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@Jacob_Feuer was that due to more long tracking tornadoes in 2011?
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Sort of hard to believe but April 27 2011 actually had more tornadoes with >20 fatalities than April 3 1974
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Today is like if April 9 2015 was much less favorable for tornadoes
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@Twist_in_nature @Brady_Wx There was a high-end EF3 in northern Illinois two weeks ago
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Running a 3km WRF for Thursday initialized with the 12z ECMWF.. this thing is about to be absolutely bonkers..
As expected, CAPE will likely trend up on this one all the way through the event's start time.
Will post the full run when it completes.
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Jacob Feuerstein รีทวีตแล้ว
Unfortunately, Gary Lezak's 45-day forecast given at the National Storm Chaser Summit back in February didn’t verify well. Aside from a small overlap in southwest Indiana, the majority of the activity was displaced well to the east. No activity occurred near the ArkLaTex region.
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@lple37 Didn’t know you knew ball like this (mitski, not animal abuse)
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@gpenawx Basically an efficient statement of a thesis I tried to get at with this blog from last year
jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/the…
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SPC probs should be treated as arbitrary. Statistical verification is irrelevant here. Moderate risks (and associated probs) are reserved for *widespread, high-impact events* and that did not happen. Pperf verifying a 90% because of a cluster of wind gusts means next to nothing.
Zach Covey@ZachCoveyTV
I've kept my mouth shut long enough - yesterday's Moderate risk DID verify. Yes, the tornado threat was a bust, but the wind threat verified Moderate. There seems to be a LOT of misinterpretation about the new SPC outlooks between the public and mets alike. However, SPC has published a wealth of data on their site (highly recommend giving it all a read to further understand the new CIGs and how they play a role into forecasting moving forward). The 1300z Wind Outlook provided a 60% CIG 1, which correlates with a MDT risk issuance. Practically Perfect odds supported a 75% CIG 1, which confirms a MDT was the risk that was most adapt for this risk. What I'm hearing is a lot of people saying that gusts never hit 75+ mph, and that makes for a bust. When in reality, SPC data shows that CIG 1 wind days produce winds between 57-72 mph OVER 85% of the time. Winds above 73 mph only occur 13% of the time. The tornado threat bust, yes. But yesterday's Moderate risk was the CORRECT CALL and was verified by over 88 wind reports in the 57-72 mph range.
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