Jamie Nutt

Maybe we need to rethink policy?

@aeberman12 whats weird Art is that product cracks in Asia are falling quite rapidly. Yes there is a bit of demand destruction, but end users are chosing to burn through inventory due to the steep backwardation.

Saudi exports are coming in below expectations—~4 mb/d and slipping. There is no positive narrative that changes that harsh reality of flows. Let's stop arguing about politics because an runaway train is approaching fast

@MktHitchhiker @fkronawitter1 in pockets. look at Australia. they decided on the buy from Asia and close local refining. Now almost in an emergency due to supply chain disruption. whilst building an anti chinese navy fleet and buying oil from them. this strategy is not thought through.

@JamieNutt13 @fkronawitter1 Can it get tighter from here? Markets work on rate of change

The oil market will want Hormuz to be open before that x.com/DeItaone/statu…

@Horn_Esquire @MktHitchhiker @fkronawitter1 oh. It. is. tight!

@JamieNutt13 @MktHitchhiker @fkronawitter1 So far, 450 million barrels of oil will not be produced this year. Each day, that amount grows. We saw domestic drawdowns last week when we were supposed to see surplus. We are not even to the busy season yet.

in the past, the otc product market was less sophisticated. Cleared contracts across the bbl were not available to trade; so the risk volume HAD to go all through Bretn and WTI on crude. Now Dubai crude and Dated Brent prices reflected the real market and not the financial market. lookup Dubai crude prices , Singapore Jet and Diesel prices

@JamieNutt13 @fkronawitter1 How do you explain prices in Brent futures?

@MayankSeksaria @MktHitchhiker @fkronawitter1 we can see what they are buying, what runs are and what their published data is. They have been building huge stockpiles and tank storage. with a huge backwardated market, it is economically prudent to use reserves first.

@JamieNutt13 @MktHitchhiker @fkronawitter1 how are you tracking the chinese spr use?

@shanaka86 China can use rail and the caspian via khazakstan too

CENTCOM just deployed a weapon on X. It was not a missile. It was an infographic. Today just while ago, the US Central Command posted an infographic to X titled “U.S. BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS.” 82,000 views in hours. A red line tracing every Iranian port from the Arabian Gulf through the Gulf of Oman. Four sections: overview, first 24 hours, mission execution, asset types. This was not a status report. This was an information operation deployed on the same platform where the IRGC toll system is discussed, where AIS data is tracked, and where the “blockade called” narrative was forming. Read the layered messaging. The text says “dozens of aircraft.” The infographic says “100+ fighter and surveillance aircraft.” The text understates for quotability. The graphic reveals for credibility. Two different audiences receive two different numbers from the same post, and both are accurate. The text is for headlines. The graphic is for analysts. CENTCOM is speaking to Reuters and to Kpler simultaneously. The asset list is the force structure nobody decoded. Aircraft Carrier. Amphibious Assault Ship. Transport Dock. Dock Landing Ship. Guided-Missile Destroyers. Littoral Combat Ship. Unmanned. ISR. Refueling. This is not a patrol. This is a full-spectrum blockade: strike from the air wing, boarding from Marines on amphibious ships, mine countermeasures from the LCS, persistent surveillance from unmanned platforms, and sustainment from tanker aircraft. Every layer of a naval blockade is in that graphic. Now read the sentence nobody decoded. “6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.” To re-enter. These ships were leaving Iran. They were outbound. Caught trying to take cargo out. The blockade is not just stopping imports. It is trapping exports inside Iran. Every barrel that cannot leave accelerates the 13-day onshore storage clock toward the shut-in threshold that causes permanent reservoir damage in the Asmari and Bangestan carbonate formations. Those six turnarounds are not just enforcement metrics. They are six contributions to the pressure that fills Iran’s tanks, kills its wells, and removes 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of production capacity from the earth permanently. And the map’s red line covers the Gulf of Oman explicitly. Jask is inside the blockade zone. The Goreh-Jask pipeline’s 300,000 barrel-per-day bypass terminal, Iran’s $2 billion insurance policy against Hormuz closure, is within the enforcement perimeter. The one escape route Iran built for exactly this scenario is drawn inside the red line CENTCOM published for 82,000 people to see. The timing was surgical. 12:57 a.m. local is early morning in Tokyo, Beijing, Mumbai, and Seoul. The post was designed to be the first thing Asian energy traders saw at market open. The audience was not American. It was the 37.7 percent of Hormuz crude flowing to China and the 94.2 percent of Japan’s imports that transit through it. And here is what CENTCOM did not say. Not one word about Bitcoin. Not one word about the IRGC’s $1 per barrel crypto toll. Not one word about the Tron blockchain where toll payments clear in seconds before any warship can intervene. The infographic covers strike, boarding, mines, surveillance, and sustainment. It does not cover the payment layer. The weapon deployed on X was precise, layered, and devastating. It was also incomplete. And the missing layer is the one that matters most. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

The Pharmaceutical Industrial Complex is going to MELT DOWN HARD… Children’s Health Defense just EXPOSED THE SCAM…Ivermectin is CRUSHING cancer like chemotherapy NEVER could. Nearly 200 patients. Multiple cancer types. 84% POSITIVE OUTCOME.

Friends, stop drinking alcohol. Not cut back. Eliminate. > alcohol increases cortisol > disrupts REM sleep > accelerates epigenetic aging > shrinks hippocampal volume > elevates resting heart rate > raises inflammatory markers > impairs glucose metabolism for 16 hrs One drink does that.

I forgot to post about this, but a very interesting event happened yesterday. 4 Russian Tu-22m3 strategic bombers launched 8 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles at a target in the village of Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. All missiles impacted something in this village, and several Russian reconnaissance drones were operating in the area at the time. Residents reported hearing very strong explosions that made houses "jump". Strikes like this with expensive, strategic missiles on frontline targets are extremely rare. Prykolotne is only 16 km from the frontline. Additionally, Ukrainian authorities completely ignored the event, with the Ukrainian Air Force even omitting its existence from their daily report on Russian missile and drone usage.

Alastair Campbell has just accused me of having 'extreme views'... Starting an illegal war based on a pack of lies causing the unnecessary death of so many British soldiers is the extreme position, in my view. I just want my country back - there's nothing 'extreme' about that.

@labourpress What mess was that?

Yet still no apology for the mess they left Britain in.

My pub was closed the entire day, as well as my @ForgedStout brewery, as well as my office, as well as my construction sites. All staff were paid for the day. As for guinness, we know which side they would be on in this conflict and it would not be the side the Irish! TRAITOR JUICE!

@liz_churchill10 She is from Langley. Next up:Gun grabbing

SHOCKING: Virginia Democrat Governor Abigail Spanberger…the AWFUL CIA Witch and Obama Apologist…is handing the state’s electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. THIS IS WHAT COMMUNIST RULE LOOKS LIKE WHO WANTS TO BET THAT SHE CHEATED TO WIN?

@commoditycurate 3/100 per day 👍

Tankers moving despite Hormuz blockade #oott

Biden FDA Knew About COVID Vaccine Stroke Risk And Kept Americans In The Dark zerohedge.com/medical/biden-…

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@MebFaber i know billionaires who borrow. they ear n 100's millions in dividends from the leverage

Investing Quote of the Day: “Here’s a rule nobody teaches at school: every dollar you owe is a dollar that can’t compound for you.” - Charlie Munger