Lewend Mayiwar

I always dreamed of becoming a macroeconomist one day.

The fall of "When prophecies fail": Another social psychology classic turns out to be based on fabrications and lies. In 1954, Dorothy Martin predicted an apocalyptic flood and promised her followers rescue by flying saucers. In “When Prophecy Fails “ (1956), the now-canonical account of the event, Festinger, Riecken and Schachter claimed that the group doubled down on its beliefs and began recruiting—evidence, the authors argued, of a new psychological mechanism, cognitive dissonance. When Prophecy Fails is one of the most influential case studies in 20th-century social science. It shaped popular understandings of how belief survives disconfirmation, and became a touchstone for explaining the origins of religious movements... But the case was misrepresented. The cult did not persist, proselytize, or reinterpret its failure as a spiritual triumph. Its leader recanted, the group disbanded, and belief dissolved. Drawing on newly unsealed archival material, this article demonstrates that the book's central claims are false, and that the authors knew they were false. The documents reveal that the group actively proselytized well before the prophecy failed and quickly abandoned their beliefs afterward. They also expose serious ethical violations by the researchers. The newly unsealed Box 4 of papers contain transcripts, telephone logs, research notes, channeled messages, and internal communications among the researchers. Collectively, they reveal serious ethical breaches: fabrications, covert manipulation, and at least one instance of interference with a child welfare investigation. One coauthor, Henry Riecken, posed as a spiritual authority and later admitted he had “precipitated” the climactic events of the study. This article shows that the authors of When Prophecy Fails misled their readers—and that scholars in psychology, sociology, and religious studies have been building theories atop a collapsed foundation. The full scope and variety of the misrepresentations and misconduct of the researchers needed the unsealed archives of Festinger to emerge, the full story could not be written until now. Every major claim of the book is false, and the researchers’ notes leave no option but to conclude the misrepresentations were intentional.

Education, like many fields, clearly has a bias towards significant results. Notice the extreme excess of results with p-values that are 'just significant'. The pattern we see above should make you suspect if you realize this is happening.

📊 Would you rather make risky decisions for yourself or for others? Which one would turn a possible loss into a much bigger issue than potential gains? Mayiwar (2025) tested groups of professional decision-makers, giving them hypothetical risky-choice tasks. 🧵 1/5

BREAKING: new study just dropped that shows compelling evidence that cell phone bans cause student grades to modestly increase. Grade increases are largest among low performing students.