The Liberty Offensive

Looks like we are potentially headed to the weekly 50ema on gold. I've spent a few years talking about this retracement target to have us all mentally prepared for this moment when it eventually came. All this time later... we are probably here. During a bull run, gold never loses the weekly 50ema. If it does, that's the signal that momentum is done and the current uptrend is over. It may tick just below it (what I call a "peekaboo") but it never actually loses it. The lone exception was during the GFC when it hit the 200ema instead (and v bottomed). The GFC was of course a major crisis, but what it did was effectively truncate the existing bull run in gold, much like COVID did to a majority of the market in 2020 (get major selloff, V recover to starting line, resume any existing bull on same trajectory within prior trends like it never happened). Historically, this weekly 50ema is the most ideal retracement target in any gold bull market. Literally THE sweet spot. It's reliable, usually oversold when it happens, rebounds quickly as a springboard, and tends to only come every ~15 months or so (I don't remember exactly, been a while since I mined all of this). It's simply the ideal sweet spot for a retracement buy during a bull market. I will buy it with prejudice. Time silver the same way using gold as the guide. If we get another "GFC" and for any reason gold hits the weekly 200ema, that's the true YOLO spot. I once said a couple of years ago when analyzing gold bull market retracements (getting ready for now) that we'd go all in on the 50ema, then borrow money on leverage to buy the 200ema (if it happened). I think that's still the right way to look at it. The point I'm trying to make is borderline literal. There are no arbitrary "price" targets. We all-in buy the 50ema and we refinance our lives to buy the 200ema. Nothing in between. That's a dead zone between the two moving averages. By the time we hit the 50ema we should have an idea of whether or not we have a shot at another GFC and thus a shot at the 200ema.

Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners. I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration + the big swings = mental fatigue. AKA shaking the tree. That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points. Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you. Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week. Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA. That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in. As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got. Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one". Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.

Looks like we're getting close to another buying opportunity here in gold, silver, and miners. I understand the scary psychology of the trade right now. That mostly has to do with the time we've spent being "indecisive" during a correction that's done a lot of whipsaw. The duration + the big swings = mental fatigue. AKA shaking the tree. That's a good place to be, and the charts look good to me. Everything's oversold, and resting at or near inflection points. Sure -- a lot of variables could bring about a large market crash and pull everything down further. The problem with that logic and/or investment strategy is that you're always waiting for something that may never come. Let your own personal appetite for risk and opportunity guide you. Personally, I may add to some positions by tomorrow. I'm interested in seeing the price action at these support levels over the course of the day and end of week. Gold still looks particularly strong. I'm willing to bet it grabs a wick soon. If we get any type of downside catalyst and lose support, we're looking at about another ~12% downside maximum in order to catch the weekly 50EMA. That's the target, wherever it is when it happens. You buy that the moment you see it, and don't think twice about it. All in. As for oil, I've always said that war (or "some bomb going off somewhere") was the single and solitary variable that could interrupt the prior precedent we'd been tracking for a bottom. War is what we got. Now that it's playing out, we will have to see how the charts behave. Comparing this massive selloff in the gold/oil ratio to prior bottoms in oil's history, I am not yet convinced that this was "the one". Meanwhile oil stocks don't look good to me in the charts. If I were in on these ~30% moves in the stocks, I'd lock up some profit. I'm not buying any anytime soon.

I keep telling you the most important chart for gold is the S&P 500. Today it was down 1%. Gold dropped 3%, Silver 10%, and the HUI (miners), 5%. Like clockwork. We are waiting for the decoupling. It's coming. 🧐