A Loser

I entered crypto thinking cycles were predictable. Made money… then lost much more chasing altcoins. That forced me to ask a simple question: Why do crypto cycles actually happen? After years of mistakes, here’s the framework I now use. 🧵

Crypto Reality: • BTC dominance elevated • Altseason probability still only 30–35% • ETH/XAU recovering but limited participation A Loser’s Final View: We’re in a "Growth optimism vs Geopolitical + Bond caution" regime. Liquidity is improving… But not fast enough to ignore the risks. The next few weeks will separate the prepared from the bagholders. Position before the crowd wakes up. What’s your biggest concern right now ..... Geopolitics or Liquidity? Drop it below 👇 Follow @LoserofAllCycle for unfiltered weekly macro.

The Hidden Risks Most Are Ignoring: • DXY firm at 99.52 ↑ • 10Y Yield at 4.48% • VIX jumped to 19.44 (geopolitical jitters) • Israel-Iran tensions + Strait of Hormuz risk Bond market + geopolitics = silent tightening. One escalation and the whole narrative flips.

🚨 The Market is Walking a Tightrope Right Now Growth is strong. Liquidity is slowly expanding. But geopolitics + rising bond yields are creating a dangerous mix. While most are celebrating "resilient markets"... A major divergence is forming that could explode either way. This week’s dashboard is critical. Thread 👇 #Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto

@unusual_whales With all the hype, it's wise to review what Mr. Whale shares about past performance. What's the most important takeaway for new investors?

SpaceX IPOed this week. But what has happened to IPOs in the past? Let's ask Mr. Whale. Watch this video. It is a must.

@Vivek4real_ This kind of consistent institutional buying could truly reshape long term market dynamics.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST ANNOUNCED TO TO BUY A LOT MORE BITCOIN HERE WE GO 🚀

@zerohedge The 'still reviewing' part suggests there's still a lot to iron out.

Trump Says Peace Deal Coming Sunday As Tehran Signals Still Reviewing Text zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…

@TedPillows If CPI does reach above 6%, what are the immediate impacts you foresee for consumer spending?

🇺🇸 US CPI continues to mimic US PPI. If this repeats, CPI inflation will be above 6% in a few months.

@FirstSquawk Feels like they’re treating this like a temporary ceasefire rather than a real deal. Curious if the US sees it the same way or if we’re heading for round 2 pretty quick. 👀

ISW: GROWING CONSENSUS EMERGING AMONG IRANIAN LEADERS ON NEGOTIATING RED LINES FOR U.S. DEAL THINK TANK SAYS TEHRAN APPEARS TO BE USING MOU TO LIMIT U.S. LEVERAGE IN FUTURE NUCLEAR TALKS IRAN REPORTEDLY FRAMING AGREEMENT AS A TEMPORARY WAR PAUSE, NOT A FINAL SETTLEMENT: ISW

@JDiP09 @zerohedge Eventually Fed will have to intervene and turn on printers...

@LoserofAllCycle @zerohedge Yes, and debt financing looks increasingly scarce. Which like Google and Meta, results in dilution.

Uber blew through its entire annual AI budget in a single quarter, according to CEO Dara Khosrowshahi who said developers in India are driving 10X the code commits they used to tricky Indian programmers blowing up AI budgets to make sure they don’t get fired.

@Roche_144 @zerohedge Exactly.... it's just when ??

@LoserofAllCycle @zerohedge It's inevitable. The ai companies have kept cost down by using the the massive amount of early investments. What happens when that dries up? And when they actually have to pay for their own energy costs? These LLMs aren't going away, but the bubble will pop eventually

@bitboyflex @KillaXBT Yes may be you are right. There was no excitement when #Bitcoin was at top and it seems all the long it has been an institutional play..

@LoserofAllCycle @KillaXBT have you not seen a nasty drop? this cycle was much more accelerated the drops. the tops lacked retail frenzy, and was more muted in a parabolic finish. the momentum was dull, and people want such a drastic low. 50-55k is the lowest we go unless we have a FTX style collapse.

$BTC So far, this cycle has mirrored 2022 remarkably closely. The main difference is the volatility, deviations, and market manipulation. This cycle has produced much larger moves above and below key levels. For example, in the previous cycle, BTC swept the ATH and retraced relatively quickly. This time, price spent 60 days ranging above $108K before eventually moving lower, creating a much more prolonged distribution range. We also saw a significant low at $28K in the last cycle. Once that level was broken, price never returned to retest it until the bear market had ended. This cycle's equivalent appears to be the $74K low. The key difference is that BTC aggressively deviated above that area beforehand, trapping and shaking out a large number of participants. As a result, the deviations around major highs and lows have been far more aggressive this cycle. If the pattern continues to track the previous cycle, it would suggest that the bottom is likely close following the sweep below 60K. However, given the increased volatility, we should also be open to the possibility of a deeper and more gradual deviation than what occurred in 2022. Regardless, my view remains unchanged. I am a buyer at these levels because I believe the current cycle is nearing its bottom and the next major cycle will begin once this process is complete. A few months of pain/chop is enough to make people go insane.

@dowehave2_tx @zerohedge Yup.

@LoserofAllCycle @zerohedge None of us that survived dot-flop will be surprised

Crypto Implications: • BTC still dominant • ETH & Alts getting crushed vs Gold (BTC/XAU 14.01 ↓) • Altseason probability stuck at ~25–30% A Loser’s Final Take: We’re in a "Growth Optimism vs Bond Market Caution" regime. The next few weeks will decide who wins. Position wisely — or get caught in the crossfire. What are you watching most right now: → Liquidity expansion → Rising Yields → Or just price action? Drop your thoughts below 👇 Follow @LoserofAllCycle for raw weekly macro

But Here’s What Most People Are Missing: • DXY spiked to 99.79 ↑ • 10Y Yield jumped to 4.53% ↑ • 2Y Yield at 4.14% ↑ Bond market is sending a loud warning: "Inflation isn't going away." Higher yields = silent tightening. This is classic late-cycle tension.

The Market is Split in Half Right Now.. One side is screaming "Bull Market is Back!" The other side (bonds) is whispering "This won't end well..." Growth is strong. Liquidity is rising. But yields are climbing fast. This divergence is getting dangerous. Who’s right? Thread 👇 #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro

@business That’s gotta be controversial. Thoughts on where the money actually goes?

Trump said he's interested in reviving his "anti-weaponization" fund — and left the door open for some of its $1.8 billion to go to rioters convicted of assaulting police in the Jan. 6 Capitol attacks — during a testy interview bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@KobeissiLetter That's not just hedging, that's panic mode. Where are most of these puts striking?

Demand for protection against a South Korean stock market decline is surging: Put option open interest in the South Korea ETF, $EWY, is up to ~880,000 contracts, the highest in at least 12 months. The total number of outstanding put option contracts has QUADRUPLED over the last several weeks. By comparison, call option open interest has increased +80,000 over the same period, to ~400,000 contracts, near the highest in a year. To put this into perspective, both put and call option open interest stood at ~50,000 contracts in January 2026. Meanwhile, $EWY declined -14% on Friday, posting its largest daily drop since the 2020 pandemic crash. Investors are rushing to hedge against a correction in South Korea.