迷走

🇬🇧 WATCH: “CORRUPTION OF THE VERY WORST KIND.” UK politicians point out the obvious insider trading where people (likely close to Trump) are getting rich off of Trump’s posts about the war. And nobody will investigate. Trump’s golden age of corruption. He is the swamp.

JUST IN - International Chamber of Commerce warns of 'worst industrial crisis in living memory'

What Trump giveth, Ukraine taketh away....

ニュージーランドもか　燃料の備蓄なし3週間後枯渇って深刻すぎるだろう

President Trump's war could fuel an economic meltdown newyorker.com/news/the-finan…

ロの石油輸出能力40％が停止、近代史上最悪の供給途絶 reut.rs/4bwzk50 reut.rs/4bwzk50

We are headed for a full-blown financial crisis. February import prices spiked 1.3% while export prices surged 1.5%, annualizing to inflation rates of 16.8%–19.6%. That's before oil rose 50%. Unless the Fed raises rates several hundred basis points now, inflation will skyrocket.

@picture_book_cw 燃料の供給不安は新興国の状況が余りにも良くなく　影響は多岐渡って出ていて仮に今ホルムズ封鎖解除されようとも回復には数年かかると　日本に多くエネルギー輸出してくれているオーストラリアは燃料の精製の9割を海外に頼り燃料危機に陥っていますし 日本だけがーですまないのです

Naphtha and LPG are the light end of the refining barrel, and boy, oh , boy, how important their roles are in the world that we live in. Naphtha (also known as Tops/FRN/LVN/HVN) is the basic building block for petrochemical plants. You feed naphtha into steam crackers to produce olefins like propylene, ethylene and butadiene, which is then used for downstream petchem products. This is the very starting point of where any of our plastics come from. Naphtha is also a key blending component into mogas. As I shared in my very early note (attached in this thread), naphtha was the first to get hit when the Strait of Hormuz flow was disrupted. Asia is dependent on 60% of the naphtha flows coming out of the Middle East into our very hungry steam crackers. To make matters worse, domestic refineries were also turning down, which means less domestic naphtha available to feed the hungry crackers. What that entailed was then a series of Force Majeure announcements in quick succession across petchem producers in Asia. You just can't run if you don't have enough feedstock. The steam crackers work in a similar way as refineries - it's either min 60% or zero (also attached in this thread for easy reference). The law of physics must be fulfilled. Furthermore at min refinery intake, the light naphtha cut has to be pulled a little bit more into the heavy naphtha feed for the reformer in order to be feasible and produce enough hydrogen to make the hydrotreaters and desulphurizers for diesel to be onspec. LPG plays a supporting role here - it is also a feedstock into steam crackers, albeit at a lower percentage than naphtha. LPG is also used as cooking gas in many countries, particularly India. The yield of LPG from the refining kit is only a mere ~1-2%, yet imagine needing to turn down the intake and get only 0.5-1% yield. That's a drastic 50% reduction of available supply, plus the Middle East is also a significant source of LPG into India. India and Indonesian government then quickly mandated for max LPG to be diverted out from the petchem sector into cooking gas. Some of you asked whether the petchem system in Asia can switch into ethane feedstock. Unfortunately, there are not many steam crackers with that flexibility. Those that have announced FM are the ones that do not have. There will be more to come if the situation at the Straits of Hormuz remains unresolved. So petchem was the FIRST to shutdown because of lack of feedstock. It will also be the LAST to start up because we need to establish enough flows from the refineries that will take at least 2 months to ramp up before the petchem side can restart as well. In summary, the petchem folks got it really bad. And I just can't see a solver for this until the Asian and Middle East refineries are running at a higher intake. #oott

An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around Trump's most consequential decisions — each time, just minutes or hours before he rattles global markets. It's precisely the kind of alleged corruption Trump built his political career railing against. axios.com/2026/03/25/tru…

@picture_book_cw ホルムズ海峡に関する英・仏・独・伊・蘭・日の首脳による共同声明（仮訳）　mofa.go.jp/mofaj/me_a/me2… ググればわかりますが現在22か国になった共同声明　ホルムズ海峡安全航行と商船への危害を行うなって　分断工作には今は乗れないでしょう。

但し、ここで抜け駆けはしませんからね、日本は。 イランにはホルムズ海峡を封鎖出来る権限も無いし。 アラグチ外相の本当の意図も、まだ分からないし。 ↓

オイルの供給不安なのは、ベースオイルがナフサ由来で海外で輸出止まったからだろうな。最近のベースオイルは韓国産が多くて　輸出の制限措置も関係しているのかね？news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/820cc… 世界中で色々な製品は国境跨いで作られているので需給のバランスが崩れたので　多種多様な品目に及ぶよ

🗣️ "Before an announcement by President Trump, unusual activity takes place." Chief economist and head of economic research of the Gulf Research Center in Riyadh John Sfakianakis calls for an investigation into billions of dollars of trading taking place before President Trump's announcements on the Iran war. ＠SkyYaldaHakim | trib.al/ymQU8O4

💰 Half a billion dollars worth of bets on the oil market were placed 15 minutes before Donald Trump said the US had held “productive” talks with Iran and announced a ceasefire on energy strikes. 🔗: telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

Just 15 minutes before Donald Trump's Truth Social post about 'talks' with Iran, there was an odd peak of market activity – did some know what he was about to say? Sky's @EdConwaySky reports Live updates: trib.al/MOtUYsz

イランの発電所攻撃を5日間延期するよう命令したとトランプ氏がSNSに投稿する直前​、わずか15分間に、原油先物市場は名目金額ベースで5億ド‌ルを超える取引が集中したことが分かった。 reut.rs/4bvVLHB アングル：原油先物、トランプ氏「攻撃延期」投稿直前に5億ドル超の取引集中

5日間限定の無料券チャレンジ(^^) 今日は麺大盛りカップ麺無料の1日目です♪ 1）このアカウントをフォロー 2）この投稿をリポスト 3）抽選で毎日1万名様に無料券！結果は自動でお知らせ

And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a submarine, and layered missile defenses. Opening the Strait is much harder. You’d need to send destroyers (or escorts) through waters that are often just a few miles from the Iranian coast. There, ships get only seconds — not minutes — to react to incoming missiles and drones. Commercial operators won’t move until the US Navy proves it’s safe. Until then, they’re sitting tight unless a deal is struck.

California is careening toward an energy crisis because it depends on refined out imports, says Chevron 🇺🇸 ⚠️ Now shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore and elsewhere are at risk of slowing significantly as Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Shell CEO Wael Sawan said that Europe will soon begin to experience the same kind of disruption to fuel supplies that Asia has faced due to the war in Iran in recent weeks bloomberg.com/news/articles/…