Migration Observatory

Will the conflict in Iran affect UK asylum flows? So far, it's too early to tell, but Iranians were the largest group seeking asylum in the UK in the past 10 years, and first among small boat arrivals. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…

80k asylum appeals were pending at the end of 2025, double from a year before. Initial decision backlog has fallen but a growing appeals backlog means the number of asylum seekers receiving support - and in hotels - remains high. Our updated tracker of Labour's goals:

How will the higher language requirement affect migrants? In short, we don’t know because there's no data on how many migrants can speak English at the B1 or B2 level. In 2021, however, 90% of migrants living in England or Wales self-reported speaking English without difficulty

The government has announced that migrants will have to pass an English language test at the B2 level to obtain settlement, up from the current B1 level. This change will come into force in March 2027.

Too early to tell what the impact of conflict will be, but unrest in Iran may plausibly affect UK asylum flows. Iranians were largest group seeking asylum in UK in past 10yr, and first among small boat arrivals. UK has also been the top destination in Europe for Iranian asylum seekers. Our analysis: migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…

The government will stop issuing study visas to people from 4 countries, and Skilled Worker visas to Afghans. It said this is because people from those countries were the most likely to make an asylum claim after coming to the UK to study. In 2025, there were 3,209 grants👇

New ONS data: % of intl students who stay in the UK has continued to increase. More are switching to other visas - 2 yrs after arrival, 62% of students who arrived in YE June 2023 had switched, up from 17% among YE June 2020 arrivals. Our previous analysis on this linked below

Our press release about today's Home Office statistics is out, and shows that increased asylum processing is not cutting hotel accomodation, as the appeals backlog balloons - also a 98% drop in asylum grant rate for Syrians migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/asylum-h…

New Home Office stats show a big increase in the processing of asylum claims - which should be good news, but will add big strain to an already stretched tribunals system which will have to deal with an additional tens of thousands of appeals.

As always, in the full briefing, we take a look at much, much more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/brie…

Settlement rates are expected to increase. One indication is that 82% of migrants who arrived in 2022 still had leave 2 years later, the highest share of any cohort in the past 20 years. The government's earned settlement proposals would reduce settlement rates, however.

How many UK migrants get settlement, also known as Indefinite Leave to Remain? We answer that question, and more, in our updated settlement briefing.

Our director @M_Sumption went on @therestismoney to talk about her new book plus how migration affects public finances, employers, and UK workers. Catch up here open.spotify.com/episode/3dqCMY…

Preview of my new book here, courtesy of the lovely folk at @UKandEU ukandeu.ac.uk/what-is-immigr…

What is immigration policy for? Our director, @M_Sumption, answers this question in her new book. You can pre-order Madeleine’s book using the code FEB26 for 25% off. Offer ends 20 Feb. 🔗waterstones.com/campaign/febru… #WPreorder

Can the government boost domestic training by restricting migration? In a new briefing, @M_Sumption and I find that migrants on work visas are a small part of a much wider picture. Here's what you need to know, in three posts.