NatGasWeather.com

For the EIA storage report, survey averages suggest a build of +44-48 Bcf vs the 5-year average of +13 Bcf. It was hotter than normal over most of the US, while wind energy generation was quite strong but solar down week over week. We expect a build of +44-46 Bcf. #natgas

For the EIA report, survey averages show a build of +33-38 Bcf, lighter vs the 5-year ave of -4 Bcf. It was much warmer vs normal over most of the US, including widespread 90s-100s from CA to TX. Wind energy generation was flat but solar very strong. We expect +41 Bcf. #natgas

For the EIA storage report, survey averages suggest a build of +35-39 Bcf, much lighter than the 5-year ave draw of -29 Bcf. It was much warmer vs normal over the entire US, while wind energy generation was very strong. We expect a plump build of +41 Bcf. #natgas #oilandgas

For the EIA report, surveys suggest a draw of -121-125 Bcf vs the 5-year of -96 Bcf. It was warmer than normal over most of the southern US and up the East Coast, while near to colder than normal across the northern US. We expect -118-119 Bcf, aided by strong renewables. #natgas

It should be an interesting open w/EC models trending 30-33 HDDs colder, and w/much of it March 1-6. The GFS trended 15 HDDs warmer and is quite a bit warmer than the EC Feb 25-Mar 6. Both are too warm March 7-10. And there's expiration of March'26 soon! #natgas #oilandgas

For the EIA report, survey averages suggest a draw of -150-153 Bcf, in line with the 5-year average draw of -151 Bcf. It was warmer than normal over much of the US besides colder vs normal over the Ohio Valley & Northeast. We expect a draw of -161 Bcf. #natgas #oilandgas

For the EIA report, it was much colder vs normal over the eastern ½ of the US, while warmer vs normal over the West. Wind generation was slightly weaker, while solar was stronger. We except a -254-255 Bcf draw vs the 5-year of -146 Bcf and market expectations of -261. #natgas

For the EIA report, a huge draw of -375 Bcf is expected by survey averages due to last week's Arctic blast. It’s a very tricky draw due to predict due to freeze-offs, widespread power outages, and lower LNG usage. We expect -369 Bcf vs 5-year average of -190 Bcf. #natgas

Weekend weather trends were to the warmer side as the GFS trended 14 HDDs warmer, while the EC and EC AI trended 23 & 16 HDDs warmer. There's still weather model differences but much of the data trended warmer over the eastern 1/2 of the US for Feb 8-15. #natgas #oilandgas

For the EIA report, survey averages are tightly clustered at -231-233 Bcf, larger than the 5-year average of -208 Bcf. It was colder than normal over the Midwest and eastern ½ of the US, while warmer than normal over the West. We expect a draw of -231 Bcf. #natgas #oilandgas

Weather trends warmer so far today as overnight GFS lost 21 HDDs. New midday EC AI just lost 9 HDDs for 8-15 day period. Most data not quite as cold for Feb 8-12 the past 12-hours. New traditional EC data starting to come in and trends for Feb 8-12 could be important. #natgas

@NoncePutin @NickDodds161969 Yes, this is comparing overlapping days (apples to apples). Nick Dobbs doesn't like facts for some reason.

@NickDodds161969 @NatGasWeather Presumably this is comparing overlapping days?

Weekend weather trends are in vs midday Friday. The GFS trended +5 HDDs colder, EC +2 HDDs colder, & EC AI +6 HDDs colder. Very strong demand next 8-days. Still lighter demand Feb 2-7. However, data teases cold returning to Midwest & Northeast Feb 8-11. #natgas #oilandgas

Survey averages for today's EIA report suggest a draw of -103-104 Bcf, much lighter vs the 5-year average of -191 Bcf. We expect -101-102 Bcf, aided by warmer vs normal temperatures over most of the US. Although, the following 3 EIA reports will be much more important. #natgas

The overnight 0z GFS trended another 17 HDDs colder, while the traditional EC was 23 HDDs colder. This was on top of large colder trends in the EC last week (which were ignored as prices sold off), followed by further colder weekend trends. Now prices up nearly $2. 😲#natgas

It will be of interest if colder trends since yesterday's close hold as the GFS trended 27 HDDs colder and the EC AI 19 HDDs colder. The traditional EC trended 13 HDDs colder midday yesterday & another 12 HDDs since then. Although, the pattern at Feb 1 isn't as frosty. #natgas

The ECMWF model trended much colder since the start of the week, including trending another 13 HDDs colder in the latest midday data, while also quite cold the next 15-days. Weather trends and price action correlated well the past few months but not the past few days. #natgas

For today’s EIA report, survey averages suggest a draw of -87-91 Bcf, lighter vs the 5-year average of -146 Bcf. Temperatures were much warmer vs normal over most of the US for the sample week, while wind energy generation was only slightly changed. We expect -90-91 Bcf. #natgas

Strong selling late last week was aided by warmer trends. But after the weekend GFS & EC both trended 23-24 HDDs colder since midday Friday, there's potential nat gas prices open higher. Still very light demand the next 3-days, then colder systems arrive. #natgas #oilandgas

The current torch pattern led to strong selling the past 10-days. Prices are higher today and aided by colder trends the past 2-days for Jan 18-22, while also forecasting a frosty pattern for this period across the northern 1/2 of the US for strong demand. #natgas #oilandga