Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs

627 posts

Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs

Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs

@Nomad_cap

formerly known as @eveleighcap

Australia เข้าร่วม Nisan 2026
115 กำลังติดตาม236 ผู้ติดตาม
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
Restart the chart from 2023
Arthur Budaghyan@BudaghyanArthur

The chart below shows the history of bubbles and overshoots. During most bubbles, asset prices rose about 10-fold in real (inflation-adjusted) terms before a bear market began (the dashed horizontal line). In real terms, the Nasdaq 100 Index has already risen tenfold, while global semiconductor stocks have gained more than tenfold. This alone is not sufficient to be bearish. However, in combination with the gigantic AI IPOs, the odds are high that we are in the late innings of AI-frenzy (see this post on IPOs marking top x.com/BudaghyanArthu…).

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Silicon Data
Silicon Data@Silicon_Data·
There are some jitters in the market about demand for AI compute partly inspired by our Token Index and partly perhaps due to the decrease in the rental price for the H100 GPU. We too have observed a recent downtick in the H100, we don’t agree that compute demand has decreased.
Silicon Data tweet media
Silicon Data@Silicon_Data

Our LLM Token Expenditure Index should really have been named the “Token Expenditure Price Index” bc it’s an expenditure or usage-weighted average token price index. It tells you how much currently the entire market AI is paying for a million LLM tokens irrespective of models. The naming might’ve led to some misinterpretations as some seem to have interpreted the index as either the total volume of token used or the average price of tokens. In reality, the index captures something more subtle than either interpretation: it tells us the marginal willingness to pay for LLM models. Over the course of the year, while model token prices haven’t moved that much, the usage patterns have moved dramatically leading to the token index movement down and then up sharply as AI users moved en masse into using cheap open weight models and then en masse to the much more expensive frontier closed source models. From consumers to enterprises, everyone is Claude-maxxing! More recently, as can be seen in the chart below, the token index has stagnated, which suggests that usage migration towards frontier models has slowed. Time will tell whether this is just a pause or an inflection in the trend as users move back towards open weights models. In a sense our token index could be roughly interpreted as a “quality premium” of frontier models over the much cheaper open source models (if we assume users and prices are both “rational”). For more details on what we offer beyond the few indices we’ve listed on the Bloomberg Terminal, check us out at silicondata.com and give us a holler! 😊

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Annalise Keating
Annalise Keating@Ariannnyy_·
The girl is 20, dude is 29 btw.
Annalise Keating tweet media
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Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
Anthropic and OpenAI pushing back IPO’ing by a year pushes back the ai capex peak by a year.
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Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
@BowtiedDropbear Yes I keep getting emails from you for the last 6 months saying you couldn’t read my meter. The reason is because it’s a construction site. What should I do?
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Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
Australia shitco utility: “We’re proud to have our call centre based in Australia. You are the 112th caller in the queue”.
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Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
My cat goes “brr” every time he jumps from a moderately high place. He will fail in life as a predator.
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Clifford
Clifford@10footinvestor·
@Nomad_cap 100% man. I think also (more optimistically) is what people forget is the question has never been "could a machine do this". Jobs are accountability layers as well. Unless you want to try holding ChatGPT accountable for whatever thing
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Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs
Nomad Cap High Bandwidh THAADs@Nomad_cap·
Anyone who thinks ai will take human jobs en masse have never worked inside a giant corporate before.
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