Paul Ritchie

New preprint out today highlighting that the duration of a 1.5C overshoot matters. We find that all climate tipping points would be avoided if global warming over 1.5C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming kept below 2.5C. doi.org/10.5194/egusph… @coxypm @UofE_Research

@coxypm @RobertHoglund @UofE_Research Yes, indeed, the thresholds (and tipping timescales) are taken from the 'best estimates' given in the Armstrong-McKay et al., 2022 paper.

@RobertHoglund @PDLRitchie @UofE_Research I believe that the threshold that @PDLRitchie used come from the McKay et al. 2022 paper. The key issue for a relatively 'slow' TP like the AMOC, is less to do with the threshold and more to do with the characteristic timescale.

New preprint out today highlighting that the duration of a 1.5C overshoot matters. We find that all climate tipping points would be avoided if global warming over 1.5C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming kept below 2.5C. doi.org/10.5194/egusph… @coxypm @UofE_Research

@coxypm @BenJohnsonGeo @UofE_Research Yep, it will also depend on how much any overshoot is. The further the overshoot, the more likely CDR or SRM would be required to get back sufficiently quickly.

@BenJohnsonGeo @PDLRitchie @UofE_Research Probably not by conventional mitigation or CDR within 30 years, but maybe within 100 years (which would avoid many TPs). A faster return below 1.5K would probably require SRM.

Cool animation from @PDLRitchie! Shows the probability of triggering a climate tipping point does not go from zero to one as soon as a threshold is crossed. Instead, it depends sensitively on the time for which a threshold is exceeded. Shorter duration overshoots are safer.

A great first paper by @RuthChapman1407 illustrates the different mechanisms (bifurcation, noise, and rate-induced) for tipping of the AMOC in a conceptual box model calibrated to HadGEM3. @SachaSinet @GSI_Exeter

What burning questions on tipping points occupy climate scientists?🌎 👉Join #ClimTip at #EGU24 to find out! Follow a day with brilliant speakers in Vienna. Chaired by Niklas Boers | Co-chairs: @Ricarda_Climate, Anna von der Heydt, Tim Lenton. ℹ️More: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/session/…

On many parts of the land surface, the hottest days are warming faster than the annual mean, according to a new paper by Chris Huntingford, @Lambda_Joe, @PDLRitchie et al. (@UKCEHPapers @GSI_Exeter @ExeterUniMaths ). Full paper available at: rdcu.be/dDIsn

Fantastic to see Peter Ashwin from @ExeterUniMaths on this list, well deserved. Congratulations to Peter and the entire class of SIAM Fellows 2024! sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/a…

#Climate system #tippingpoints will be increasingly at risk under a temperature #overshoot but could social tipping points be part of the solution? New commentary from @PDLRitchie @DrJFAbrams @dvdmckay @coxypm Tim Lenton @GSI_Exeter cell.com/one-earth/full…

Positive tipping points must be triggered to solve climate crisis news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-env…

Many thanks go to my co-authors @DrJFAbrams @dvdmckay @coxypm and Tim Lenton @GSI_Exeter

Initiating positive tipping points are needed to reach the levels of decarbonisation now required. Under correct enabling conditions (affordability, attractiveness, accessibility), Norway has created a positive tipping in the sales of electric vehicles and others are following.

We have a new commentary article published in @OneEarth_CP today highlighting how tipping points can both be a problem and a solution authors.elsevier.com/a/1iG8K9C%7EIu… See🧵for more details @DrJFAbrams @dvdmckay @coxypm @GSI_Exeter @UofE_Research

First conference, first poster and today I won a prize for it! A very supportive environment to share ideas about my research with PhD students, early career researchers and profs. Roll on another week of seminars, intro to Julia, and the half marathon! #nadcom23 @mpi_pks

Latest paper published today on future soil carbon in CMIP6 Earth system models with co-authors @coxypm, @semiupsidedown, @eleanorjb, @simonrobjones & @AndyJWiltshire 🌍 ➡️bg.copernicus.org/articles/20/37… @UofE_Research @GSI_Exeter @ExeterUniMaths @MetOffice_Sci @4C_H2020 @ERC_Research

🚨Exciting PhD opportunity at @UTAS_🚨 The project, supervised by Dr Courtney Quinn, will study rate-induced transitions in cyclones & involve collaborations with @IMASUTAS & @GSI_Exeter! Deadline for applications is 25th September. utas.edu.au/research/degre…

New research from Dr Hassan Alkhayuon of @UCCsms, Prof Sebastian Wieczorek of @eriucc @UCCsms, @PDLRitchie of @GSI_Exeter has found that our ability to adapt to global warming will be impaired if the rate of change is too rapid irishexaminer.com/news/munster/a… @SEFSUCC @UCCResearch

Tipping points can be triggered unexpectedly by dangerous rates of change news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-env…