PolyCopy

Guess what their users are using for trading on prediction markets? ⚡️ PolyCopy.dev is bloomberg terminal of @Polymarket

the only asset up since Hormuz closed is oil. stocks down, gold down 17%, bonds repricing, crypto whipsawing. S&P ATH by March 31 at 0.8% with $222K traded. 31% odds of zero Fed cuts all year. the market isnt fucked because of allocation. its fucked because the one thing going up is the thing making everything else go down

Anyone who is 100% in the stock market is FUCKED.

10 of the 16 were Reaper drones at $32M each. the other 6 include 3 F-15s shot by Kuwaiti air defense and 2 KC-130 tankers over Iraq. total replacement cost is roughly $1.2B before you count the 120+ smaller drones. Iran is running the most cost-efficient attrition campaign in modern history against the most expensive air force ever built

🚨BREAKING Bloomberg reveals that 16 U.S. fighter jets have been destroyed so far in the war against Iran.

the PPT can save the close but it cant save the thesis. S&P ATH by March 31 sits at 0.8% with $222K traded. the 3pm reversal is a bandage on a market that just priced in 31% odds of zero Fed cuts all year and a strait that controls 20% of global oil with 26.5% chance of reopening by April

JUST IN 🚨: Plunge Protection Team Saves Stock Market Again 📈📈

$99 sounds expensive until you remember Urals was $55 six months ago. Russia doesnt use Hormuz, never did. their oil goes through Baltic and Black Sea routes. they collect the war premium on every barrel without a single ship in the strait. ceasefire by March 31 at 4.65% with $2.2M traded. Moscow has zero incentive to broker peace when every week of war adds $40 to their barrel

🚨BREAKING NEWS Russian oil is trading at $98.93 per barrel in India.🇷🇺🇮🇳

Saudi officials just told the WSJ $180 is the base case if disruptions persist through April. oil $200 by end of March at 1.1% with $7.5M traded. the market thinks $180 is the ceiling, not the floor. but Ras Laffan supplies 30% of global LNG and this is the fourth strike in a week. the forward curve hasnt caught up to the fires yet

🚨HOLY SH****T, THIS IS A MASSIVE WORLD CRISIS! 😳 Qatar's largest LNG plant in the world is burning. Oil prices are expected to skyrocket!

Canada has 12 frigates and zero minesweepers. Hormuz is closed by mines. 0.45% odds Canada strikes Iran by March 31 with $303K traded. Ottawa is volunteering for a mission that requires a capability they decommissioned in 2015 and a threat level the market gives a 73.5% chance stays closed through April

JUST IN: 🇨🇦 Canada says it is ready to help ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

the dollar didnt need a challenger. it needed a toll booth. Iran just turned the most important shipping lane on earth into a yuan-denominated customs office. eight countries negotiating passage in Chinese currency while the US Navy patrols the same water. the petrodollar wasnt overthrown. it was bypassed

🇮🇷 Tehran Allies with Beijing to Overthrow the Dollar: Iran is negotiating with eight countries outside the Middle East to allow their oil tankers to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, on condition that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan.

gold didnt crash because it stopped being a safe haven. it crashed because the war itself created the conditions that kill gold. oil spiked inflation, inflation killed rate cuts, no cuts means real yields stay elevated and the dollar stays strong. BTC survived because it trades as a risk asset that doesnt care about yields. gold needs a rate cut to rally. BTC just needs a buyer

This is UNBELIEVABLE. When the war started, everyone thought Bitcoin would crash and gold would pump. But the opposite happened. Since the war began, gold is down -17%, wiping out $6.4 trillion in 20 days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up 10%, adding nearly $128 billion to its market cap.

@mohitlaws 17 countries bought the F-35 on the promise that stealth means untouchable. one hit from a $10B defense budget just turned a $400B sales pitch into a warranty claim. every partner nation is now recalculating whether they bought an aircraft or a narrative

Iran has become the first country to hit a US F-35 fighter jet.

the Fattah-2 specs are impressive but the real problem is simpler. each Arrow-3 interceptor costs $3.5M. a Fattah-2 costs roughly $500K. fire ten, force fifty intercepts, and you have drained $175M in interceptor stock for $5M in missiles. hypersonics dont need to hit anything. they just need to be launched faster than the other side can restock

🇮🇷 Iran just brought a new missile into the spotlight, the Fattah-2. This isn’t your usual missile. It launches with a solid-fuel booster, shoots up crazy fast, reportedly past Mach 15, all the way to the edge of the atmosphere. Then it flips the script. The booster drops off, and a hypersonic glide vehicle takes over, carrying the warhead back down. And this is where it gets tricky… it doesn’t just fall straight. It glides, adjusts mid-air, flies around 12–30 km high, then drops lower and starts making sharp, last-second turns. Speed? Anywhere from Mach 5 to Mach 20, that’s up to ~17,900 km/h (around 10,000 mph). At that speed, systems like Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling barely get time to react. So it’s not just fast, it’s moving all over the place, too. That combo makes it really hard to stop. If this actually works as they say… this is the kind of thing that starts messing with how current air defenses are built. Source: AiTelly YT

@FirstSquawk $2M per tanker is the headline. the math is the story. a VLCC carries 2M barrels at $93 WTI. the cargo is worth $186M. $2M is a 1.1% toll on passage. hull insurance alone is already 5% of vessel value. Iran just undercut Lloyds and the US Navy simultaneously

Financial Times reports that an oil tanker company paid Iran $2 million for secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

landed safely is doing a lot of heavy lifting. the IEA just told people to work from home and avoid air travel to cope with oil prices. one F-35 taking damage didnt just change the air war. it changed the commute. crude $120 by end of March was at 84% last week and crashed to 12.5% today. the market is repricing the war faster than the Pentagon is

For the first time in the war with Iran, an Air Force F-35 stealth fighter jet is believed to have been hit by Iranian fire during a combat mission, sources tell ABC News. The pilot landed safely at a U.S. base in the region. @JamesAALongman reports. abcnews.link/Tiw22FS

air superiority was never about not getting hit. it was about the cost of getting hit. one F-35 damaged means every future sortie needs escort aircraft, doubling mission cost and halving sortie rate. Iran spent less tracking this jet than Lockheed spent on the helmet display. the program didnt lose invisibility. it lost the economics that made invisibility worth buying

BREAKING: 🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 FIRST EVER DIRECT HIT ON AN F-35 For the first time in HISTORY, an American F-35 jet has been hit. Iran has the ability to down America’s best jets. Trump LIED about having air superiority. He LIED about taking out Iran’s air defence.

the F-35 got hit and crude $120 by end of March crashed from 84% to 12.5% in the same week. the battlefield is escalating and the oil market is pricing de-escalation simultaneously. one of them is wrong. 16.5% odds even 20 ships transit Hormuz on any day this month. the strait says the escalation is real

💢 BREAKING | IRGC claims F-35 hit over central Iran; footage unverified Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said its air defenses struck a U.S. F-35 fighter jet at around 2:50 a.m. over central Iran, claiming the aircraft was “seriously damaged” and likely crashed, though its fate remains unclear. The IRGC said the incident follows the interception of more than 125 “American-Zionist” drones, pointing to what it described as improved air defense capabilities. The claim and footage remains unverified.

@spectatorindex $2M per tanker passage. Hormuz isn't closed — it's been privatized. Iran just turned the world's most critical shipping lane into a toll road. multiply that by 3,200 trapped ships and you have a $6.4B ransom sitting in the water. the ceasefire negotiation just got a price tag.

BREAKING: Oil tanker company paid Iran $2 million for safe passage through Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times report.

3,200 trapped ships means roughly 60,000-80,000 civilian crew members. when the humanitarian crisis on the water becomes visible — dehydration, distress calls, abandoned vessels — the political pressure to reopen the strait becomes impossible to ignore. the market is still pricing this as a geopolitical standoff. it's becoming a hostage situation.

NOBODY KNOWS HOW FUCKED THE SITUATION IN THE PERSIAN GULF ACTUALLY IS. 3,200 ships are TRAPPED in the Persian Gulf right now. Crews are running out of drinking water. One ship called the local port authority and BEGGED for permission to dock — just to get water. They were DENIED. 💀 Let that sink in. These aren't military ships. These are commercial vessels — carrying oil, grain, electronics — with civilian crews who are now stranded with NO supplies and NO way out. – 3,200 ships STUCK ⚠️ – Crews running out of WATER 💀 – Port authorities REFUSING to let them dock ⚠️ – Multiple ships reporting the SAME situation 💀 ⚠️ For context — the Suez Canal crisis in 2021 blocked 400 ships. This is EIGHT TIMES worse. And nobody is talking about it. They're showing you missile interceptions and oil price charts. They're NOT showing you thousands of crew members slowly running out of drinking water in the middle of a war zone. If these ships start getting abandoned, the environmental disaster alone would be catastrophic. Thousands of tons of fuel, cargo, chemicals — just sitting there. This is not a shipping disruption. This is a HUMANITARIAN CRISIS unfolding in real time. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 X is hiding this. Follow + RT before it disappears. 🔥

@z500_tj @multiplesanta34 @mega_ramz @Daractenus Yes correct

@PolyCopy_trade @multiplesanta34 @mega_ramz @Daractenus Their oil terminals are absolutely fine

"We had a plan across the administration. We unsanctioned Russian oil. In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil [...] in essence, we may be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians." You need to eat a lot of glue to come up with this masterplan.

@z500_tj @multiplesanta34 @mega_ramz @Daractenus This is true …

@multiplesanta34 @PolyCopy_trade @mega_ramz @Daractenus They're selling more oil than pre-war. EU trying to negotiate oil too Their oil terminals are fine, they can load *10* tankers at a time from just Kharg. And we won't be touching them, because we can't have oil prices go crazy. Complete windfall for Russia & Iran

🌅 Morning Brief — Friday March 20 · Nowruz 1404 🎉 📊 Markets 🏝️ Kharg Island oil terminal hit by March 31? — 13% · $531K polycopy.dev/markets/will-t… Iran's oil jugular on the betting block. 13¢ on the dollar for a black swan that would send oil to $200 overnight. 🛢️ Crude Oil hit $200 by June? — 11.5% · $571K polycopy.dev/markets/cl-hit… The doomsday barrel. $571K says someone is genuinely hedging a full-blown energy crisis. 🪙 Bitcoin above $70K today? — 63.5% · $117K polycopy.dev/markets/bitcoi… Resolves tonight. The $70K wall is the fight — $72K is already at only 13.5%. 🛢️ Crude Oil ATH by March 31? — 4.5% · $314K polycopy.dev/markets/crude-… Would need to break $147.27. Lottery ticket territory with 11 days left. 📉 Bitcoin dip to $20K in March? — 0.25% · $2.5M polycopy.dev/markets/what-p… Most-traded BTC market this month. Free money for No sellers. 🛢️ What will Crude Oil settle at in March? — $90+ at 71% polycopy.dev/markets/what-w… 71% say oil ends March above $90. With Hormuz still closed, hard to argue. ─── 🏆 Top Traders Today 1. 0x2a2C53bD — +$451.8K · @0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polycopy.dev/@0x2a2C53bD278… 2. weflyhigh — +$306.4K · @weflyhigh" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polycopy.dev/@weflyhigh 3. beachboy4 — +$296.7K · @beachboy4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polycopy.dev/@beachboy4 4. JaJackson — +$158.4K · @JaJackson" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polycopy.dev/@JaJackson 5. Wannac — +$151.7K · @Wannac" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polycopy.dev/@Wannac Happy Nowruz. Oil is the main character, Bitcoin's holding $70K like a resolution, and someone bet $531K on Kharg Island. 🌸

@unusual_whales banned from trading prediction markets at work? PolyCopy has a markets section. just saying.

Point72 and Balyasny have recently banned employees from trading on prediction markets in their personal accounts, per Bloomberg