Ray G

We are in the final stretch of - hopefully - being able to bring Payton home! Just need to ensure that she can tolerate being off her sedation meds and we can get out of here. Please be praying!

The back end of Round 1 of the NFL Draft is where WRs lacking elite analytical profiles go to ruin dreams and get people fired. Since 2017, eight WRs have been selected between picks 15 and 32 with a 90th-percentile or better production score in my model: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Marquise Brown CeeDee Lamb Rashod Bateman Jerry Jeudy Treylon Burks Emeka Egbuka Justin Jefferson Not all hits, but plenty of good players and three confirmed elites in that cohort. Not bad! But what about guys drafted between picks 15 and 32 with BELOW a 90th percentile production score? In order of production score: Jordan Addison N'Keal Harry Calvin Ridley Jahan Dotson Xavier Worthy DJ Moore Quentin Johnston Brandon Aiyuk Xavier Legette Zay Flowers Kadarius Toney Jalen Reagor Brian Thomas Jr. Ricky Pearsall Matthew Golden There are some good players here, but not a single superstar, and several outright busts. My thought would be that this is the area where "toolsy" players and "speedy deep threats" who lack proven production are often pulled up, or good-but-needy teams (somewhat understandably) make reaches to try to maximize their contention windows. It's also where our expectations often run high due to "elite landing spots" and "Round 1 draft capital", with the prospect profile getting lost. I call this the Crest of Disappointment. Denzel Boston, K.C. Concepcion, and Omar Cooper all now project to be drafted near this range. That doesn't mean they're all going to bust, but it does mean you should ask yourself about the reasons they're getting this level of draft capital. Is it for Calvin Ridley reasons, or Jalen Reagor reasons? Where their production scores would fit in on the above list: Boston: between Xavier Worthy and DJ Moore Concepcion and Cooper: between DJ Moore and Quentin Johnston