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Hedge fund short exposure in US ETFs fell 11.5% in a single week. Largest short covering in a decade. Macro product purchases were the biggest since May 2025. Equity exposure is now in the top 3% of all readings over the last 5 years. That's not a positioning shift. That's a forced unwind. Funds were caught short into the ceasefire rally and had no choice but to cover. $SPY is up 2.5% in 5 days.

Hedge funds continue to aggressively cover their short positions: Hedge fund short exposure in US-listed ETFs fell -11.5% last week, the largest weekly short covering over the last decade. At the same time, purchases of macro products, including index futures and ETFs, were the largest since May 2025. As a result, hedge fund exposure to global equity macro products has only been higher in 3% of cases over the last 5 years. The magnitude of the unwind suggests hedge funds were caught offside by the ceasefire rally and were forced to cover. Hedge funds are rushing back into equities.

The global pharma industry is spending $2.51B on AI drug discovery in 2026 alone. $NOVO already cut 9,000 jobs last year. This partnership is how they accelerate output without rebuilding headcount. $NOVO is locked in a direct race with $LLY for obesity and diabetes market dominance. Whoever identifies the next generation GLP-1 molecule first wins a market projected to hit $150B by 2030. AI is becoming the competitive moat in pharma. Not patents, not manufacturing, not distribution. The lab that finds the molecule fastest wins.

$IONQ up 13%, D-Wave up 10%, Rigetti up 9% on this announcement alone. The biggest problem in quantum computing is error correction. Qubits are unstable and every calculation introduces noise. Ising Decoding is 2.5x faster and 3x more accurate than the current industry standard at fixing that in real time. Calibration that used to take days now takes hours. $NVDA isn't building quantum computers. They're building the AI layer that makes every quantum computer work better. Same playbook as GPUs in AI — own the infrastructure everyone else runs on. Quantum market hits $11B by 2030. $NVDA just positioned itself as the picks and shovels play before most people even understand the space.

NVIDIA $NVDA QUANTUM ANNOUNCEMENT Nvidia just announced the launch "Ising" Nvidia says its the first set of open-sourced AI models to accelerate the path to useful quantum computers

CATL alone at 39.2% global market share is bigger than South Korea and Japan combined. $GM is paying a 60% tariff to import CATL batteries from China while its own US battery plants sit idle. The US placed CATL on the military companies list and banned federal procurement of their batteries from 2027. Yet $F and $GM still can't build competitive EVs without them. China also controls 65% of global lithium processing and has placed export controls on the rare earth magnets that go into every EV motor. Battery dominance is just the headline. The full supply chain is the story. The West spent a decade buying Chinese batteries instead of building alternatives.

China's dominance in the global EV battery market is unprecedented: Chinese battery makers now control a record 70.4% of global EV battery installed capacity. The percentage has surged +20 points over the last 4 years. Over the same period, South Korean producers have seen their combined percentage cut in half to just 15.3%. In 2025, 6 of the top 10 global battery manufacturers were Chinese, with their combined percentage rising +4 points. China's largest EV battery maker, CATL, alone makes up 39.2% of the global market, surpassing the combined market share of South Korea and Japan. China is leading the EV battery race more than ever.

$NBIS has $46B in contracted revenue between $META and $MSFT deals combined, against a $25B market cap. $NVDA invested $2B directly and gave them first access to Vera Rubin chips. That's supply chain lock-in, not a financial bet. Goldman just lifted FY27-FY30 estimates 45-50% on one contract. The stock is still under-owned and under-modeled.

Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy on $NBIS and raised its price target to $205 citing the company’s $27B AI infrastructure deal with $META. The firm lifted FY27 to FY30 revenue estimates by ~45% and EBITDA by ~50% on the Meta ramp.

Data center capex hit $726B in 2025 and is crossing $1 trillion in 2026. That milestone was not expected until 2029. GPU lead times are at 12 months. CoWoS packaging capacity is fully allocated through mid-2027. A single $NVDA B300 GPU requires 96 DRAM dies. HBM is now consuming 23% of all DRAM wafer production globally. $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META and $AMZN placed forward orders that locked up most of $NVDA's Blackwell allocation through end of 2026. Everyone else is on a waitlist. API outages are just the consumer-facing symptom of a supply constraint that runs all the way down to the foundry level. The compute shortage isn't easing until late 2027 at the earliest.

Compute shortage is real, and it's getting worse. There's been a lot of talk recently about how Anthropic nerfed Claude, but they didn't have an alternative. The demand was so excessive that API outages exploded after Opus 4.5 launch; they simply don't have enough compute to run the models at full capacity. We aren't bullish enough. $NBIS $CRWV $AMZN $GOOG $MSFT $ORCL

OpenClaw hit 354,000 GitHub stars and 70,000 forks in weeks. Only 3.3% of $MSFT 365 users actually pay for Copilot today. Integrating OpenClaw shifts Copilot from a chatbot that responds when asked into an agent that executes multi-step workflows across Excel, Outlook, and Teams without being prompted. That's the difference between a tool and an employee. Gartner projects 40% of enterprise applications will have task-specific AI agents by end of 2026. $MSFT owns the productivity layer for 400M+ commercial users. The monetization unlock isn't selling Copilot seats. It's making agents the reason no enterprise ever leaves Microsoft 365.

Microsoft $MSFT is developing new features that would make its AI assistant Copilot function more like OpenClaw - The Information

Every $10 rise in oil adds roughly 25 cents to gas prices within 2-3 weeks. The Fed was already reluctant to cut rates at $89 oil. At $105 the rate cut conversation is completely dead. $XOM and $CVX are printing money. $LNG is at record highs. The US energy export infrastructure just became the most valuable real estate on the planet again. The Islamabad talks failed. What happens next is the only question that matters for markets right now.

BREAKING: US oil prices officially surge +10% at the open, rising above $105/barrel, as peace talks between the US and Iran fail to reach a deal.

AI gets all the attention. The chips, the models, the data centers. But there is a problem nobody is talking about that threatens all of it. These clusters are consuming electricity at a scale the grid was never built for. By 2030 data centers are projected to consume 9% of all US electricity. The power and energy trade is the most underpriced theme in AI right now. The infrastructure holding AI together that Wall Street hasn't priced in yet. Names already on my radar: $VST $CEG $ETN $NEE $GEV Which of these do you already have a position in?

The optical trade has a hidden layer most people haven't found yet. I almost missed it too until I followed the supply chain all the way down. $FN - Fabrinet. They don't make the lasers. They build the finished modules that go into every AI data center. Last quarter revenue: $1.13B. Up 36% year over year. A new record. 76% of revenue tied directly to datacenter interconnects and next-gen transceivers. HPC revenue went from $15M to $86M in a single quarter. That's not a typo. First direct hyperscaler deal signed with $AMZN. Expanding capacity by 2 million square feet — $2.4B in additional annual revenue potential. $LITE and $COHR get the headlines. $FN gets the contracts. Is this the most overlooked name in the optical trade right now?

Iran's 10-point proposal includes sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The US 15-point plan requires Iran to dismantle its nuclear program. Only 12 ships have crossed the strait since the ceasefire versus 100 per day before the war. Oil is at $89. If these talks produce a real deal it goes back toward $67. If they collapse it goes back toward $112. The entire energy market is sitting on this hotel room in Islamabad right now.

BREAKING: Another round of negotiations between the US and Iran will be held tonight or tomorrow in Pakistan, per Iranian state affiliated media.

Everyone is arguing about copper vs optical in AI data centers. $AVGO says copper wins. $NVDA is funding optical. Both of them are right. Here's why that matters more than the debate itself. $AVGO and $NVDA aren't on opposite sides. They're building the same thing in sequence. Copper handles the rack. Optical handles everything connecting racks together. That's not a disagreement — that's an architecture. Copper tops out at 2 meters at 200Gb/s per lane. Beyond that, physics takes over. Optical bandwidth density is 10 Tbps/mm vs copper's 3 Tbps/mm. CPO cuts energy per bit by over 70%. $NVDA confirmed co-packaged optics for scale-up clusters arriving in 2028. OFC 2026 consensus: all high-bandwidth data center interconnects will be optical within 5 years. The whole stack is moving in one direction. The only question is which part of it you own.

The STOCK Act was passed in 2012 specifically to prevent this. It requires members of Congress and senior government officials to disclose trades within 45 days. Violations carry a $200 fine. That's it. A $200 fine on a multimillion dollar position. That's why nothing changes. Is insider trading in Washington actually illegal if the penalty is less than a parking ticket?

JUST IN: Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi is calling for an investigation into whether senior officials traded on nonpublic information tied to the war in Iran

$NVDA forward PE: 21x. $AAPL forward PE: 27x. $WMT forward PE: 41x. $COST forward PE: 47x. The company growing revenue 122% YoY is cheaper than the company selling bulk toilet paper. That's the mispricing the market has created. $NVDA's 5 year average forward PE is 69x. It's currently trading at less than a third of that historical multiple while AI capex from hyperscalers is accelerating. At what point does the market realize it's paying a growth premium for groceries and not for the company building the infrastructure of the next decade?

@TKL_Adam Nvidia and and Apple are cheaper than Walmart and Costco on a Forward P/E basis.

This chart says it all: US tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x Forward P/E in weeks. Tech valuations are now LOWER than they were when ChatGPT was announced. As the Iran War drives markets lower, AI is only getting bigger. Record highs are on the horizon.

@KobeissiLetter Mythos could pressure parts of app security, but $NET is not a one-product story. Cloudflare sits across performance, edge, WAF, zero trust, and broader network security.

BREAKING: Cloudflare stock, $NET, extends losses to over -13% on the day after Anthropic’s launch of Claude Mythos, an AI model that finds and exploits software vulnerabilities. The stock is now down -22% in 4 days.

$MSFT is down 21% in 2026 while beating earnings every single quarter. The selloff has nothing to do with the business. Capex is forecast to hit $146B this fiscal year, up 66% from last year. The market is repricing $MSFT from a high margin software company to a capital intensive AI infrastructure platform. That transition takes time to digest. Trading at 20x forward earnings. The last time $MSFT was this cheap relative to its growth rate was 2016, right before a decade long bull run. Is this the most mispriced large cap in the market right now?

BREAKING 🚨: Microsoft $MSFT on track for its 3rd consecutive weekly close below its 200-week moving average 📉📉 The last time this occurred was more than 13 years ago 🤯👀

China imports 70% of its oil. Iran and Venezuela were supplying nearly 2.5 million barrels a day to Beijing. Both are now effectively cut off. The US just became the default energy supplier for the entire eastern hemisphere. $XOM, $CVX and $LNG are not just energy companies right now, they are geopolitical infrastructure.

US crude oil exports are skyrocketing: US Gulf Coast crude exports are on track to average a record 4.90 million barrels a day in April based on current loadings. That would be up +23%, or +930,000 barrels per day since March, and up +30%, or +1.12 million barrels per day since February. At the current pace, May exports will exceed 5.0 million barrels a day for the first time in history. This comes as Asian buyers are securing US cargoes to offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply while flows from the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly limited. For May alone, 28 supertankers are already lined up to carry US crude, compared to 5 typically booked at this point in a month. Global demand for American oil has never been higher.

$TSM prints 45% revenue growth in March. HPC is now 57% of their business, up from 39% three years ago. $NVDA, $AMD and $AVGO all run through $TSM. When the foundry grows at this pace, it confirms the AI order book is still accelerating. $56B in capex planned for 2026. That's not a company hedging. That's a company that knows exactly what's coming.

$TSM March revenue jumps 45% YoY to $13.1B. If the AI factory is already putting up numbers like this then it shows how early we still are in the AI cycle.

The futures market is pricing a 78% chance of zero cuts in 2026. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack went further, saying rate hikes have to be on the table if inflation stays sticky. Powell's term expires in May. A new Fed chair walking into an active inflation print with geopolitical uncertainty is a policy risk the market hasn't fully priced yet. If the ceasefire holds and oil pulls back, the entire rate cut narrative flips fast.

BREAKING: March CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.4%. Core CPI inflation rise to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.7%. CPI inflation is now up to its highest level since May 2024 amid the Iran War. Fed rate cuts have been priced-out for 2026.

7 consecutive green days. +7.6% recovery. Longest win streak since October 2025. Since the 1950s this has only happened 9 other times. What happened next — $SPY was higher in 8 of those instances over the following month, averaging +4.4%. Over 3 months, up in 7 of 9 instances averaging +10.2%. The data doesn't care about sentiment. It doesn't care about headlines. 75 years of market history is pointing in one direction right now. The ones who sold the fear are now buying back at higher prices.

The US stock market is seeing a historic recovery: The S&P 500 has finished green for 7 consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since October 2025. The index has rallied +7.6% over this period, recovering nearly the entire war decline. A similar 7-day stretch has also been recorded by the Nasdaq Composite, the longest since August 2025. Since the 1950s, the market has seen a similar streak with at least a +7.0% gain only 9 other times, per Carson Investment Research. Following this, the S&P 500 has been higher in 8 of those instances over the next month, with an average return of +4.4%. Over the following 3 months, the market has been up in 7 instances and has gained +10.2% on average. History says market momentum is set to continue.