Nico | RUDOLPH TRADING

The biggest mistake U.S. investors can make is holding too much cash. Sure the U.S. stock market is overpriced, but so is the dollar. A weakening dollar, and the monetary and fiscal policies that will drive it lower, will support nominal stock prices. Own gold and foreign stocks.

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on why the AI boom might be the most overhyped tech cycle we have ever seen: This year alone, data center spending in the United States is projected to exceed $500 billion. And Griffin wants to know what all of that money is actually buying. "You're not going to generate this kind of spend unless you're going to make a promise. You're going to profoundly change the world." In his view, the scale of the capital commitment demands the scale of the promise. And when the promise has to be that big, hype becomes inevitable. "Is it hype? Of course." Griffin isn't arguing that AI is worthless. He sees real impact in certain areas like call centers and software engineering. But for the broader white collar workforce, he's far less convinced. He points to a recent Harvard paper that coined the term "AI work slop." It looks impressive on the surface, but falls apart the moment you look closer. He saw it firsthand inside Citadel. A colleague running their commodities business handed him a report generated by an AI engine. "The first few sentences like, 'Wow, that's really insightful.' And then you go down below that and it's all garbage." For Griffin, this is the defining tension of the current AI cycle. The industry needs to promise transformation to justify the investment. But the actual productivity gains, for most jobs, haven't shown up yet. We have seen this pattern before. Transformative technology attracting massive capital well ahead of proven results. When the hype finally settles, will AI have actually changed anything at all?

🚨 ACABA DE PUBLICAR 1816 INFORME QUE ARGUMENTA QUE EL BANCO PRIVADO MÁS GRANDE DEL PAÍS HABRÍA CAMBIADO BONOS CER CORTOS POR LARGOS POR APROX $2 BILLONES! EXCELENTE NOTICIA PARA LOS ACTIVOS DE PESOS!

Por cada $10 adicional en el precio del petroleo, $VIST agrega $300M de EBITDA para el año completo 2026, con producción de 140k bbl/d. Es decir, si durante todo 2026 el Brent promedia los $80, el EBITDA de Vista se acercaría a los $2.35B ($450M mas que el $1.9B estimado pre conflicto y asumiendo Brent en $65). Comparto cuadro de sensibilidad para que vean el potencial EBITDA segun distintos precios (gracias Claude)

*POWELL: FED'S TOOLS HAVE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON SUPPLY SHOCKS can't print oil