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ONE SHINING MOMENT 🙌 #MarchMadness

Nike wiped out $200B+ in market cap since November 2021. And the chart actually understates how bad it is. This company made one bet that destroyed everything: the direct-to-consumer pivot. During COVID, Nike's online sales surged, and management convinced themselves the stay-at-home economy was permanent. They pulled product from Foot Locker, Dick's, and thousands of wholesale partners to push buyers through Nike.com and Nike stores. That ceded physical shelf space to On Running, Hoka, New Balance, and every competitor happy to fill the void. By the time Nike brought Elliott Hill in as CEO, customers had already moved on. The China numbers are staggering. Seven straight quarters of declining revenue. Greater China sales dropped 17% last quarter. Next quarter Nike expects a 20% plunge. Meanwhile Lululemon is posting double-digit growth in the same market. Anta and Li-Ning are eating Nike's share from below. Nike's China revenue contribution fell from 18.6% in 2021 to 14.2% in 2025. Yesterday Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America all downgraded the stock on the same day. Net income fell 35% year over year. Gross margin has declined for seven consecutive quarters. And the stock still trades at 38x forward earnings, a premium over the S&P 500 average of 22x. This is what a slow-motion brand collapse looks like with a luxury multiple attached to it. The turnaround keeps getting pushed further out. Management promised growth by early 2027. Wall Street priced that in. Now it's late 2027 at best. The scariest part: Nike is still the #1 sportswear company by market cap. If this is what #1 looks like, the rest of the industry is running a different race entirely.