S25

🇺🇸 THE FED IS PREPARING TO SELL U.S. DOLLARS AND BUY JAPANESE YEN FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CENTURY. The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen. This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge. Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously. Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time. History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does. We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years. That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped. If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out : - The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen. - That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity. - And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge. Now look at crypto. Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs. But there is a catch. There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans. We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value. - So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto. - But dollar weakness creates long term upside. Now, why is this bullish for crypto ? Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement. If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment. This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.