SaveTradeInvest

Short to medium term high in Treasury yields may be close ( $tlt bottom)

@tenet_research Deep dive into the entire space: x.com/i/status/20373…

OAKTREE WILL MEET 8.5% PRIVATE CREDIT FUND REDEMPTIONS IN FULL

@Tonyd_nyc Appreciate it

@SaveTradeInvest This is a great read. Thanks for putting it all together

$1T. $2T. $3.5T. Everyone's quoting a different private credit number — and they're all technically right. Map every funded claim on the same underlying dollar and real exposure is closer to $6T globally. #PrivateCredit #CreditMarkets #BDC 👇 open.substack.com/pub/savetradei…

@JulianKlymochko Good breakdown here: x.com/i/status/20373…

Historical recovery rates for middle market direct lending is 65% to 85%. Currently, if one assumes this recovery rate holds, listed BDCs trading at an average -25% discount to NAV imply a 34% to 79% cumulative default rate, which is 5x to 10x of what occurred in the GFC.

@rcwhalen @cvpayne Always appreciate your takes. If you have time, check out my Substack: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Mortgage Market Notes; A Lehman Moment for Apollo Management? | theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira825 @cvpayne | Great hit....

First Substack article

@TruthGundlach Worth noting the headline numbers massively understate total exposure once you count every funded claim on the same underlying loan. Broke it all down: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

@kshaughnessy2 Most coverage stops at the fund level. Banks, insurers, pension funds, and offshore reinsurance structures all layer on top. Full system map: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

“Trapped in Private Credit, Investors Wait to Pull Out $5 Billion” “A wave of redemption requests across the private credit industry has left more than $4.6 billion of investor capital trapped behind withdrawal limits, with more asset managers expected to impose curbs in the coming weeks. Investors have looked to pull roughly $13 billion from over a dozen funds so far this quarter, according to Bloomberg estimates and data from Robert A Stanger & Co. But since the vehicles can cap withdrawals at 5% of net assets per quarter, investors have only been able to access about two-thirds of the cash they’ve sought, the data show…” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@SamanthaLaDuc Worth noting the headline numbers massively understate total exposure once you count every funded claim on the same underlying loan. Broke it all down: x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Private Credit stress post Consumer Lending sector troubles… Next up HY credit spread distress? samanthaladuc.com/p/high-yield-c…

Last year, Wall Street strategists rushed to cut S&P 500 targets during the tariff tantrum. This time, with the #Iran #war potentially more damaging, most have barely moved. It may just mean the bigger downgrades have not started yet. #SPX #SP500 #Oil

@JeffSnider_EDU It keeps exapanding. Here is some large bank exposure I put together: x.com/i/status/20331…

HUGE: Fund Downgrades Begin x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@PicturesFoIder x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Explosion at oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas

@DavidBCollum Here is some exposure for the largest six banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

There is a total bankrun on private credit and probably private equity that is held in check by gating the redemptions. Within no time, the remaining assets will be easy to mark to market: it will be zero. I think it started when Harvard Management Corp began muttering about trimming their alternative investments. Were there earlier foreshadowings?

@martypartymusic Here's a proxy for exposure for some of the large banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

More private credit distress. Apollo Debt Solutions fund, valued at approximately $25 billion, received redemption requests totaling 11.2% of outstanding shares for the quarter. In response, the firm activated its standard liquidity mechanism by capping redemptions at 5% of shares. This resulted in honoring roughly $730 million in outflows (out of over $1.5 billion requested), with the fund balancing this against nearly equivalent inflows of about $724 million. The decision was framed in shareholder communications and SEC filings as consistent with the fund’s “designed liquidity objectives”prioritizing preservation of asset value and avoiding forced sales of illiquid holdings at unfavorable prices. Apollo indicated it plans to maintain the 5% cap into the next quarter, aiming to balance the needs of redeeming investors with those remaining invested. This is not an outright freeze (a “gate” in extreme terms) but a pro-rata limitation built into these vehicles’ structures.

@zerohedge Exposure to some of the big banks. x.com/SaveTradeInves…

Apollo Private Credit Fund Is Latest To Gate Investors As KKR Fund Gets Junked By Moody's zerohedge.com/markets/apollo…

@nickgerli1 Agree with this but if we see a large change in mortgage rates we could see movement in either direction. For example if rate started to spike above 7.5%. Prices would likely have to respond lower at that point.

Mortgage rates have spiked in the last 3 weeks. But it won't matter for the housing market. Mortgage rates stopped being the driver of demand 3-4 years ago. Whether mortgage rates are 6.5%, or 6.0%, makes no categorical difference on demand right now. The limitation to the market today is prices, and until prices adjust, mortgage rates will largely prove inconsequential. Chart Source: Mortgage News Daily

@DerivativesDon Initial reaction if any of that came to pass would be a stronger dollar. That would do its own damage to a lot of different asset classes which we are starting to see already.

Interesting take. People may not be able to sell dollars until they pay back their dollar debt and stop invoicing everything in dollars. But, that doesn’t prevent them from selling USTs.

Refined the TGA projection model 🔹 Peak: $1.1T (April) 🔹 New Floor: $850B - $900B 🔹 2027: The debt ceiling cliff. #Macro #Treasury #TGA #FixedIncome

No need to be condescending man. I am speaking to the data you posted. When you dig into the deposits data it clearly shows most of that pile is held by higher net worth individuals. If you want to talk about the larger picture of the factual basis of the K economy effects we could have that discussion.

@SaveTradeInvest Been said, been wrong, scroll instead of repeating.

Gonna be some 💩-y Consumer Sentiment? What they WILL and CAN do is more important than how they fill out survey While benefits from tax refunds will be wiped clean, due to rising fuel prices, it doesn't wipe out record level Checkable Deposits, real accessible CASH savings 💵 The narrative that $4/gal or even how long that price lasts can determine recession has already proven faulty from 2022 when prices averaged >$4.30/gal for over 3 months in 2022. #economy $SPX $SPY $CL_F #Macro #crudeoil #IranWar‌