Seb
2.7K posts
Seb
@Seb_TFX
Contextualizing the movement of price and capitalizing on probabilities in an uncertain market.
เข้าร่วม Eylül 2023
752 กำลังติดตาม474 ผู้ติดตาม
Super interesting dynamic with the Fed outlook. New chair coming in, they likely hold and avoid clear forward guidance during the transition phase.
Markets are leaning hawkish now with a '26 cut getting priced out.
"Uncertainty" will become the buzz word. Powell said it like 35 times yesterday.
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Up only cant be sustained when everything else is getting squeezed.
Gold is a store of value, when you start getting liquidated on your equity longs you're going to take profit on gold to cover that drawdown.
Look at how ES and NQ are holding onto those lows like its the last line of defense in WW3. 😂
Financial conditions tightening -> Regime shifts = trend shifts.
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@tradeloqfx @Seb_TFX Crazy to suggest but actually isn’t all that far away!
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How many margin calls from long positions in Gold do we think?
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@AnantaSumantera The 1 cut is hanging on by a thread, one good jobs print and it’ll get full pushed out ‘27 looks even more “hawkish”
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Can someone please explain how it makes sense to charge $2 for oat milk in a cappuccino when the whole container is ONLY $4.49 RETAIL
For references it is 32oz for 4.49
And the milk in a cap is only 6oz
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@elitetraders_io @tradeloqfx Trading isn’t about finding the best entry or the right idea. It’s about not being a dumbass in between 😂
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Over time, trading stops being about finding trades and starts being about avoiding mistakes that cannot be undone.
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"Higher for longerer"
Fed held. Pause stays. Dots say “slow easing, not a cutting cycle.”
Funds rate unchanged: 3.50–3.75% (2nd straight hold after late-2025 cuts)
Statement: growth still solid, but uncertainty up (Middle East / energy) + labor softening
Data-dependent, but the bar to cut again is high with inflation still sticky
SEP takeaway: near-term inflation revised higher (energy shock), growth trimmed but not breaking.
Dots cluster around a few cuts in 2026 → path trends toward ~3% over time, not a rapid glide lower.
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Waiting to see markets reaction to Fed today. Gold looks dumpy still. We got a pre FOMC liquidation after the PPI release.
Markets leaning a bit hawkish. Dollar to 103-105 and Gold down to $4,000 wouldn't event be a crazy drop. It would start to look more bearish but it would only be testing into last years prices.
Part of me still thinks the 4400- 5627 range on GC can just be a massive range where price can trade up and down for a long time depending on the driver.
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