Simen Munter
564 posts

Simen Munter
@SimenMunter
Large scale human process expert, Lean geek, loves digital innovation, Robotics, Big Data, AI and a passion for tractors.








Yesterday, I argued that Turkey’s TFR was 1.48 in 2024, well below replacement level, and has been falling fast since 2014. Today, I want to highlight a few additional points. First: Turkey has the highest within-country TFR variance I’m aware of. In Şanlıurfa, TFR was 3.28 in 2024 (comparable to Kenya). In Bartın and Eskişehir, it was 1.12 (comparable to Spain). The ratio between them is nearly 3 to 1. By comparison, in the U.S., the highest TFR is in South Dakota (2.0), the lowest in Vermont (1.3), a ratio of 1.5. These differences in TFR reflect significant differences between Eastern and Western Turkey (in terms of economy, society, culture, and ethnicity) and will impact Turkey’s future. Yet even with those divides, TFR is falling everywhere. TFR in 2014: Şanlıurfa: 4.57. Bartın: 1.69. Eskişehir: 1.57. Even more striking is Şırnak. In 2000, it had a TFR of 7.06, comparable to Chad or Mali, and among the highest in the world. In 2024, it dropped to 2.62, roughly Turkey’s national level in 1998. That’s a 63% drop in 24 years. I struggle to find any other example in global demographic history of such a rapid decline in fertility. And remember: TFR is not the crude birth rate. TFR = expected births per woman, not per population. Migration flows don’t affect it (unless those who migrate are the most fertile per woman, which would increase TFRs in the destination provinces). As a whole, TFR in Southeast Anatolia went from 3.63 (2014) to 2.87 (2024). At this pace, the region will fall below replacement by 2030. In other words, Turkey’s national TFR still has much room to fall, as the east continues to decline from high levels, and we may soon see Turkey’s TFR fall below the EU average, something I wouldn’t have predicted even a decade ago. Second: Turkey is a textbook case of what @NezihGuner, @mattd_econ, and I have called “demographic contagion”: 📄 nber.org/papers/w29480 The fall in TFR in one region is strongly influenced by previous declines in adjacent regions, even controlling for income. In Turkey, if you map provincial TFRs over time, you see an unstoppable tidal wave moving eastward, rarely skipping or leaving provinces untouched. That dynamic, to me, is crucial. Third: there’s little evidence this drop in TFR is driven by timing. Yes, completed fertility may end up a bit higher than current TFR estimates, but that’s a second-order difference. Fourth (and finally): as in many countries, the 2024 UN WPP numbers for Turkey are hard to reconcile with national data. Turkish Statistical Institute: TFR = 1.48, Births = 937,559. UN WPP 2024: TFR = 1.85, Births = 1,196,000. The UN does not project Turkey’s TFR to fall to 1.48 at any point before 2100 (the end of its projections). And yet it already has, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. This is a serious issue. Many rely on the 2024 UN WPP, but the numbers diverge massively from national statistical agencies and almost always in the same direction: UN projections show much higher TFRs and births. Why? I could discuss the demographic future of Turkey in much more detail, but I will stop here.


E18 Lundeslettene i Tvedestrand kommune: Stengt for trafikk i begge retninger grunnet jordras.

Roses are red Violets are blue We're nearing our target And we will reach 2 #ValentinesDay


Stopp å henvise bankkunder til å prute på boligrenten, men rydd heller opp i prisdiskrimineringen hvor samme bank gir like kunder ulik rente - enten basert på om de pruter, eller basert på hvilke app de bruker linkedin.com/pulse/pruting-… via @LinkedIn





Another common question I’m answering working with scaling tech companies is… Q. What’s the worst leadership advice you’ve heard? A. By far the worst is “Hire great people and get out of their way”. Let me explain… 🧵 (1/32)

If you need a heavyweight framework to manage complexity, perhaps you have too much complexity. Better bandaids won't stop the bleeding if you really need stitches.














