Sovereign

MY BAGS DISCLOSURE View my crypto token material holdings at coingecko.com/en/portfolios/…. I update it every 1-2 weeks. Exclusions: - Tokens valued under $5,000 (immaterial). - Short-term trades between updates. - Tokens not supported by CoinGecko's portfolio feature. - NFTs (not supported by CoinGecko's portfolio feature). This post is informational only and NOT financial advice. Consult a financial adviser and do your own research.

@CryptoGorilla mental illness tbh

When someone asks why I'm still buying NFTs

lmao omg wow base salary $52.4k, bonus $410k, holy shit where is this money going to flow?

Korean tech workers are cashing in massive bonuses and scrambling to diversify. Koreans already love gambling on stocks & crypto… so ipso facto, a big chunk flows straight into Upbit shitters?

@art3xin @kongster11 @openservai yes, there's two sablier vaults and the primary treasury wallet is at 0x42cab3696a60c6fc51381bb533797e4121e1f168.

@SovereignGains @kongster11 @openservai Is the teams wallet / treasury info disclosed?

A valid criticism of @openservai $SERV has been it touts performance against internal instead of external benchmarks. But OpenServ just reported insane results on a sample of 22 tasks from the DRACO benchmark. Better performance than Claude Opus 4.8 at merely 37% the cost.

@Adiosratrace @kongster11 @openservai if you aren't skeptical in crypto, that's a way to lose money very fast.

@SovereignGains @kongster11 @openservai That sounds skeptical

@kongster11 @openservai As of now, it's based on believing the team is not straight up lying to its community. Can be dangerous to believe in a team in crypto.

@SovereignGains @openservai How do we verify the authenticity of these benchmarks that they put up?

What if the koreans are rotating memory stock gains to crypto gaming coins on upbit?

@dampedspring Concerned recent price action is driven by the $HYPE DAT, not fundamentals. That's what's driving price in the short term, nothing more.

Here's my current view on HYPE. Been working on it for a month or so now and still have more questions than answers. Always learning. My view is HYPE price is a function of 1. growth in global trading volumes in general =V Which is composed of crypto volume growth =VC Trad FI volume growth = VT 2. Share of trading volume = S and correspondingly SC and ST Given the HYPE protocol it's pretty easy to make a bull case for say $400 based on both V and S growth. At $400 further upside seems highly limited in that Hyperliquid would have so much share that further upside is impossible (something like 100x of current revenues) yet the price increase would result in basically flat net coins outstanding or a deflationary inflationary equilibrium. So I get the bull case. As of today my assessment is VC growth expectations are radically too high. VT growth is boring Hyper liquid share of SC is pretty darn big already Hyper liquid share or ST is almost nonexistent so does represents real opportunity. However ST currently is NOT in anyway relevant to tradfi in any meaningful way and is basically for crypto native tradfi tourists and bucket shop customers wanting high leverage and non regular trading hours trading. I see no chance that the bucket shop customer base is durable and sustainable nor is it a sizable when compared to the overall market volumes and never will be. I see high barriers and competitive and regulatory headwinds for ST during regular trading hours AND willingness from existing tradfi vested interest to evolve and meet after trading hours trading volumes so I am very very bearish relative to expectations of real ST market share growth for hyper liquid At mid 70's I think HYPE is a call option. If none of the ST gains are made the existing volumes support a 30 price. This is where I wanted to buy PURR and missed it. So it's a call option trading for 40 that could be worth 330 or zero. (Meaning it falls from 70's to 30's if is a dud). Is that a good buy? Risk forty to make 330. Meh. Would I short it. Nah it's not crazy. I'd love to buy at 35 in the next bear market or short at 100 in a blow off top speculative frenzy even if that occurs in a long term bull trend to 400. For now no position. Continuing to get smarter (still mostly dumb as I'm sure I will be told as soon as I press send). Innovative disruptive things are worth watching regardless of their future. So I am doing that

For more background, here's the original report from the OpenServ CTO.

One lesson about trading will improve your performance beyond all others. The lesson: You are not a trader, you are a risk manager.

@EricBalchunas Smart move to go after prediction markets. There is a wide open space ceded by Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market focused on financial professionals who want a professional way to hedge or position, and without being intermingled with degenerate sports gamblers.

Schwab is entering the prediction markets game, acccording to WSJ story, working with CBOE to allow investors (er traders) to play yes or no binary bets on financial things like S&P 500 price targets. Not doing politics or sports tho.. yet.

@Tradermayne It's retarded that I have to swap from usdc to usdg and then usdg to USD to avoid getting raped on fees going from stables to USD.

Guys need some no bullshit feedback If you use Kraken: What do you hate about it? What’s the worst part or totally missing? If you don’t use Kraken: Why not and what would change your mind? You can be as harsh as you like, I’ll take your feedback and it’ll go straight to leadership

@itszore @Tradermayne Workaround swap into usdg first then swap from usdg into usd. No fees.

They are really going to let me short a commoditized llm with a mentally deranged CEO from $1 trillion fdv to ZERO for years of unlocks. And I get to do it twice. We run it up to infinity until the unlocks start. Then short it all to zero.

@The_1legendd @game_for_one Good comment. The unlocks are why I'm waiting for lower prices. While revenue is likely to grow (there's no end to compute demand in sight) and buybacks/burns will help, the revenue growth won't be enough to offset unlocks.

@SovereignGains @game_for_one They expect to remove 12m of $IO from circulation over the next year but also unlocking 10m coins a month currently. Do you see revenue growing substantially anytime soon?

there's an ai token which recently turned on buybacks and refuses to go down now. gib entry now or i fud.

When will U.S. law enforcement shut down Toyota, extradite its executives, and throw it leadership team in jail for 10+ years for the decades they've made Tacoma's used in crimes worldwide? Oh wait, they won't. The desire to treat financial services different-- shutting down companies and throwing executives in jail when their financial service is used for something bad -- is convenient incumbent protection, backed by the violence of the state. The entire debate is bullshit.

@thedefivillain insane alt szn

Top performing stocks from early April Several AI related stocks are up 2x-3x in less than 3 months