Stephen Geldart

@PolemicTMM India too. x.com/ChiniMandi/sta…

Go on UK, lower VAT on fuel or at least cap it as a total revenue figure rather than as a percentage. As prices soar, VAT take currently does too. E.g. if prices double VAT can be halved and still maintain the same revenue.

Clarification on this: transportation will take place overland to the final destination NOT via Hormuz #OOTT

We are nowhere near normalization — and this will be too nuanced for many who have an axe to grind — but the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has unambiguously risen off the lows during the last 48 hours. Tankers, dry bulk, LPG. It’s a start.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will announce updates on E10 and E15 Wednesday at #CERAWeek (12 PM CT). Details below. #ethanol

@tx_marcelo I’ve heard some pretty high cane estimates in the last week. Plus more cane throughput means less flexibility to make ethanol…

@StephenGeldart Even if mills didnt want such a good crop this year, they are going to get one... You can have a lower, maybe 47% sugar mix, and total sugar output would still be around 40 mln T

Rain in Centre-South Brazilian cane regions has been above the long-term average since November...🧐

Raízen has filed a Chapter 15 bankruptcy petition seeking recognition of its Brazilian restructuring. U.S. imports of Brazilian #ethanol have declined sharply in recent years amid growth in domestic advanced biofuel production. #RFS #RINs #biofuels

Several moves in Asia to use more ethanol instead of gasoline: 🛢️Philippines looking to temporarily allow ethanol imports to blend into gasoline. 🛢️Vietnam is considering moving its E10 rollout to before June. 🛢️Indo also looking to speed up E10 roll-out (due 2028).

Brazilian ex-refinery gasoline price in green, with theoretical world market import margins in blue. Gasoline in Brazil is now much cheaper than world market gasoline. But since 2024 Petrobras has only adjusted prices once or twice a year. 🧐

Thai cane crushing this season now above 89m tonnes, with mills still processing 1m tonnes cane per day. It now looks like we will exceed some of the low trade house estimates of 95m tonnes.

Today in @TheArgumentMag, Milan Singh and I do a deep dive into the data on who is ordering food delivery. theargumentmag.com/p/whos-really-…

Hard to believe that just under a year ago the May'26/July'26 raw sugar futures spread was +65pts. Today it's -15pts. From steep backwardation to moderate carry in 12 months.

India sugar sales quota numbers continue to look weak this season.

Big numbers from Datagro for this season's Centre-South Brazil cane crop. 635m tonnes cane crush; 40.7m tonnes sugar production. Third highest sugar production on record even after raw sugar futures have halved in 2 years.🧐

NEW: How long can import-dependent Gulf states get enough food without the Strait of Hormuz ? My latest for @FT with @simeonkerr & @alicemhancock

The demand for forecasts goes up when there’s an unforeseen shock, which is when forecasts become the least accurate.

The mild winter has increased the risk of beet yellows virus in the UK. We've had one cold snap in January and almost no ground frosts apart from that.

The product development kitchen at M&S are on a roll.

For all the recent fuss, EU TTF Natural Gas remains within its post-Ukraine invasion range.

Thai daily cane crushing still looking respectable.