Teucrium ETFs

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Ohio introduced E15 legislation on March 18. Minnesota followed with a similar bill. 5¢/gal retailer incentive proposed. Blend rate hit 10.51% in 2025 — a record (EIA). We believe year-round E15 could be the next catalyst for corn demand.

USDA projects total U.S. wheat acres at ~44.0M for 2026/27 (Feb Outlook). Canada trending lower. IGC projects global wheat production declining in 2026. Fewer acres + drought + war premium. We believe a structural supply squeeze could be building.

USDA reported corn export net sales of 2.02 MMT for the week ending Feb 27 — up 54% from the prior 4-week average. Demand has been holding well above forecasts. Global buyers may be front-loading before Hormuz disruptions could spread to freight lanes.

Hormuz carries ~20% of global crude (EIA). But per S&P Global, it also moves ~35% of seaborne urea, ~24% of ammonia, and ~50% of sulfur trade. We believe the market is pricing the oil risk but may be underpricing the fertilizer risk.

The U.S. Drought Monitor (March 19) shows a split picture. Midwest improved: down to 30% in drought (-12 pts). But the S. Plains hit 70% (+5). Southwest at 78%. Winter wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma appears to be taking the hit. The I-states got the rain.

Per CFTC data (week of Mar 17), soy oil net managed-money longs hit 122K contracts — near all-time highs. Biodiesel economics appear to be surging as crude clears $110. We believe the energy-agriculture link could be tightening further.

Wheat posted its best run in two years as of March 20. $6.22/bushel (CME). War premium. Drought in the Plains. CFTC data shows funds covering short positions. Resistance sits at $6.40. If it breaks, we could be looking at a different market.

As of March 12, Brazil's soy harvest was 51% complete (CONAB). Last year at this point: 61%. Slowest pace in five years. Cargill halted China shipments in early March over inspections. 177.8 MMT crop, but the logistics chain appears kinked.

USDA's Feb Outlook Forum projects corn acres dropping to 94.0M from 98.8M. That's 4.8M fewer acres. March 31 Prospective Plantings could cut even more. At $619/ton urea, the economics may get worse. The supply side appears to be tightening before a seed hits the ground.

Urea hit $619/ton at the Gulf on March 20 (Barchart). Up 57% YoY and 33% in one month. The Hormuz closure has disrupted an estimated 30% of global urea trade. Spring planting starts now. Farmers appear to be absorbing this in real time.

Sugar may be flipping from surplus to deficit. Reuters projects a 1.5 MMT shortfall for 26/27 in a post-Hormuz scenario. Brazil could divert more cane to ethanol as crude tops $110. Raw sugar rallied to 15.63¢/lb. on March 19. 5-month high.

Brent crude hit $112/barrel on March 20. Highest since 2022. Up 57% year-over-year. The Hormuz closure appears to be repricing energy, agriculture, and freight simultaneously. This isn't just an oil story. We believe it's an input cost story for every bushel planted this spring.

WTI crude above $90. Soybean oil tracking it higher. Net bullish soy oil bets at a 3-year high according to the CFTC. Long-only positions at a record. The energy-agriculture link appears to be tightening. This is not just an oil story.

5th-driest winter on record. Corn-area drought: 30% to 51%. Soybeans: 30% to 53%. Winter wheat: 35% to 56%. This happened in three months. Grain and livestock markets may have yet to fully price in the risks.

Tuesday's USDA Grain Stocks report could confirm demand is chewing through the record corn crop. Avg estimate: 9.09B bu (DTN) — up from 8.15B last year but we believe anything below 9B bu would be bullish.

Tuesday's USDA Prospective Plantings could be the most consequential report day of 2026. Avg estimate: 94.5M corn acres — down 4.3M from last year's 89-yr high. We believe anything under 94M could trigger a meaningful rally (USDA).

U.S. ethanol production hit an all-time high in 2025: 16.49 billion gallons. The blend rate broke 10.51% -- past the E10 wall. Exports were up 13%. We believe year-round E15 could be the next catalyst. NCGA is pushing hard. Watch the EPA deadline.

On March 12th Cargill suspended Brazil soybean shipments to China. 20+ vessels held. Tighter phytosanitary inspections have been choking the world's largest soy trade route. 177.8 MMT crop, record exports were projected for March. But the pipeline just got kinked.