Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒

2026 macro in 10 weeks: → 2 rate cuts priced in → Warsh news → 3 cuts on the table → Iran conflict → 0 cuts, hike in play Crypto is anchoring on liquidity and the narrative flipped 3 times before anyone could update their thesis. Volatility isn't the risk. Being slow is.

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,392 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿20.006 million (95.27% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($31.3 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

A closer look at the relationship between M2 and Bitcoin prices, and how US Fed balance sheet can play a role in the future.

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,470 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿20.003 million (95.25% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($33.1 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

@mert It's worse. He's projecting his views on Bitcoin based on a friend who unfortunately sent money to a scammer they met at a pub who likely promised an insane return derived from "crypto trading."

Boris' argument for why Bitcoin is a ponzi: i) one of his friends once invested in it and the price went down ii) Satoshi is Japanese (?) iii) there's no one to talk to if, and I quote: "they decrypt the crypto" iv) Pokemon cards are better because kids notice them $200,000

I hope @BorisJohnson appreciates the difference between Bitcoin (the asset) and the thief who stole money from his friend. Using his analogy, that same thief could've promised returns from trading Pokemon. PSA: strangers promising returns on crypto trading are scammers.

Also worth noting in today's 8-K report from @MicroStrategy an amendment to their ATM agreement. The amendment permits the company to designate an additional agent for security sales in after hours, separate from block transactions. Hints at more capital raising flexibility.

Let's talk capital flows in crypto. I've consistently called out the flattened trend in net inflows between @MicroStrategy and US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. That's changed in the last two weeks. Since Feb 23, 2026, Bitcoin ETFs realized +$1.4B of net inflows, paired with MicroStrategy purchasing +$1.5B of bitcoins in the same period. Supply remains tight with Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed stabilizing. If this demand trend continues, March 2026 will be the strongest period of combined net flows in 6 months. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply in USDT and USDC is reversing the negative trend year-to-date in 2026, posting +$3.1B in net inflows since Feb 23. We're just under $1 billion away from reversing the negative year-to-date trend in 2026 on the stablecoin front.

Today the 20 millionth bitcoin was mined. Every day prices change. Sentiment shifts. Debates unfold. But after 17 years of continuous operation, the Bitcoin network remains the same. And that’s the point. The “boring,” predictable details matter. blog.kraken.com/news/industry-…

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,348 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿20.000 million (95.24% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($30.3 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

This week Bitcoin broke through some steep resistance at the $70K level. What's changed? + Daily net inflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs are strengthening. Since inception, ~60% of trading days saw net inflows. YTD 2026, that figure is only ~44%. But more recently since the last week of February 2026, ~67% of trading days realized net inflows. This is a strong, positive shift in demand momentum. + MicroStrategy purchase activity is picking up, with price-to-NAV recovering to ~1.3x and the recent decision to increase the dividend on STRC, coupled with the preferred equity trading above par, signals they are likely actively in market fundraising this week to purchase bitcoins.

Just incredible after so many years in the making.

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,328 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿19.997 million (95.22% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($29.9 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

I’m going to take the other side of this. NY going through a difficult winter and EVERYONE complained about the aftermath of the last big storm/ice over. Hiring within the community is a great idea. And now they have a rough idea on the right wage signal to achieve their goal. He’s literally employing free markets strategies as a socialist and getting results, lol.

I resonate with this quite a bit. One of the reasons crypto was so interesting to me professionally nearly a decade ago is that you could leap ahead people who had decades of experience with financial services. New paradigm. AI is like this to some extent, but experienced people have the first advantage if they apply themselves to it equally well. For all the talk of entry level being doomed, it’s simultaneously an opportunity for ambitious people with self determination to move faster than any prior cohort before them.

You don't have to convince me of that longer-term. But, yes, the straightforward thesis I have is liquidity is tight in this environment and the short-term narrative for Bitcoin is choppy. It could turnaround fairly quickly for the same reason I indicate here: x.com/ThomasPerfumo/….

That’s a fair take. Liquidity is the real driver in the short term, no doubt. But zooming out, Bitcoin isn’t just reacting to liquidity, it’s increasingly absorbing it as a global reserve alternative. Rotation will happen, but the key thing is where capital wants to settle long-term. With tightening conditions, scarce assets with strong monetary properties tend to win that rotation. Bitcoin’s not just along for the ride, it’s becoming the destination.

the market is afraid that AI won’t be good enough and won’t live up to the capex spending the market is also worried AI will be too good and kill every job, especially in software these are opposites. this is the state of the market 🙃

@AriDavidPaul I think a lot of people are trying to avoid that reality that long-term holders are selling and they're rotating capital outside of crypto. Bitcoin CDD chart says it all. The good news is that it seems to be slowing down this quarter. x.com/ThomasPerfumo/…

In short: no. I was a wall st market maker 15 years ago, explicitly exploiting inefficiencies in products like ETFs. Market makers absolutely do “game the system” in all sorts of ways, but for liquid products like BTC ETF, their actions mostly have the effect of adding meaningful but small costs to consumers; it doesn’t meaningfully change the asset price. For example, market makers may manipulate the price to run stop limit orders. But that’s typically on an intraday timeframe. So they might run an asset like MSFT or BTC 2% in a weak market to trigger stops, then a few seconds or minutes later, the price is mostly back to where it was before. I.e. the price manipulation activities are typically small price moves, made and reverted quickly. Why is BTC down? Because OGs sold tens of thousands of coins, and not enough people wanted to buy them. There are rare exceptions where wall street manipulates an asset in major ways longer term, but this is quite rare because it’s very risky and not as easy as it looks to profit. 99% of the time that an asset isn’t moving like you want and people are crying “manipulation”, it’s best to embrace the cognitive dissonance, avoid the “easy way out” of blaming manipulation, and work to improve your predictive models to better match reality. 1% of the time it really is manipulation as the primary factor. Lastly - everything I’ve written only applies to *short* manipulation. Manipulating stuff *higher* (including bitcoin) happens all the time across many assets.

Why is the market for Bitcoin more constructive on marginal demand from ETFs? Marketable supply is tighter. This quarter (1Q 2026) is on pace for the lowest Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed since mid-2023, prior to the approval for a US-listed Bitcoin ETF. QoQ vs 4Q 2025: -58%

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,311 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿19.994 million (95.21% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($29.5 million) #SoundMoneyMonday