Tony Sycamore_IG

.@POTUS: "We're doing everything right now, in terms of the negotiation, telephonically. They've made strides, but I'm not sure if they ever get there."

And that’s a wrap for this week. Have a great weekend all.

USD/JPY update Following on from the post below last night - Goldman is now estimating that about $118bn went through in yesterdays session in USD/JPY. Historically the MOF has accounted from about 50% of these volumes. Below is a recap of prior recent intervention dates and their sizes. As we noted in our Traders View send this morning - If Japanese authorities follow the 2024 playbook (intervention on 11 July followed by action on 12 July, and 29 April followed on May 1), another round of intervention is likely in the next session or two. Whether this intervention can deliver more than a short-term impact will largely depend on a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a sustained decline in oil prices. Both of which seem unlikely at this point.

Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.3% in April, the slowest pace of growth since January 2025 cotality.com/au/insights/ar…

The (expiring) front-month Brent oil contract has traded today within a ~$13 range in absolutely no-news.

USDJPY falls over 500 pips from the 160.72 high it hit this morning to a 155.55 low ahead of a long weekend in Asia tomorrow. If it looks like intervention and feels like intervention it probably is intervention. More so given the huge spike in volumes that has gone through and after these headlines earlier today. *KATAYAMA: WE ARE MONITORING FX MARKET WHILE YOU ARE ON HOLIDAY *KATAYAMA: WE ARE NEARING TIMING TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX *MIMURA: WE ARE NEARING TIME TO TAKE BOLD ACTION ON FX *MIMURA: THIS IS MY FINAL WARNING BEFORE ACTION

The morning after: $AMZN: .+2% Pre-Market $META: -9% Pre-Market $MSFT: -2% Pre-Market $GOOG: +7% Pre-Market

How Aussie petrol prices fell in April while oil prices remained elevated?🤔⛽️ A quick follow-up point to our note following Wednesday’s CPI report. We mentioned that petrol prices—which played a major role in driving inflation higher in March—had actually fallen significantly in recent weeks, returning to near pre-conflict levels. This point certainly raised a few eyebrows and I completely understand why. If you don't drive, or live in areas where you aren't constantly driving past service station price boards, it seems counterintuitive, especially given that global crude oil prices have remained elevated. Following the ebbs and flows of the retail petrol price cycle can be tricky to understand at the best of times. However, the sharp fall at the pump in April was driven by three main factors. 1. The federal government’s decision to halve the fuel excise from April 1st delivered roughly 30 cents per litre in immediate relief. 2. We saw an easing in global wholesale petrol prices during the first half of April, following some initial de-escalation signals out of the Middle East that pushed crude prices lower. 3. Finally, we've seen intensified competition at the pump locally, as independent retailers have aggressively cut their margins to win market share. You can follow the petrol price roller coaster ride in your region ⬇️ petrolspy.com.au/map/graph/sydn…

📉 ASX 200 slips again. @Tony_Sycamore explains how oil prices and rate fears are weighing on the index 👉 bit.ly/4eYpY3U #ASX200 #MarketOutlook #RBA

Amazon's free cash cushion is almost gone. FCF is down 95%

Meta's Reality Labs unit lost another $4 billion in Q1, bringing its cumulative losses since 2020 up to $83 billion. We've never seen a public company light money on fire to this extent. $META

US 10 year yields back on the radar after their highest daily close in 9 mths. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but it delivered its most divided vote since 1992. Markets have read this and the removal of the implicit easing bias a pivot toward neutrality, with many now viewing future rate hikes as equally likely as cuts. As a result US 10-year yields finished 8bps higher at 4.43% - their highest daily close in nine months. The gains in US yields were further added to by oil prices leaving the US rates market pricing in the Fed keeping rates on hold for the remainder of 2026 - a far cry from the 60bp of cuts priced at the end of February.

WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at $108.49 (+8.90%), its highest daily close in over three weeks. The overnight gains came as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East refused to ease and fresh US inventory data delivered a bullish boost. While the many crosscurrents are playing out, the technicals remain our north star. As we noted at the beginning of last week, the crude oil chart has turned increasingly bullish. The pullback from the March 9th $119.48 high appears corrective and provided WTI holds above the key $76–$79 support zone, there is potential for a retest and break of that March $119.48 high.

Thoughts from Goldman on Yesterdays AU CPI Bottom line: The RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation – the quarterly trimmed mean – rose 0.8%qoq, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.5%yoy. The outcome was weaker than our and consensus expectations and below the RBA's February SMP forecast. The more timely monthly trimmed mean CPI data were in line with expectations, with year-over-year growth in trimmed mean CPI increasing 3.3%yoy. Compositionally, the downside miss to our quarterly trimmed mean forecast largely reflects weaker-than-expected inflation across domestic and international travel, medical services and rents. Following today’s update, recent weaker survey data, and factoring-in our commodity team’s recent higher oil price forecasts – we make some modest adjustments to our macro forecasts for Australia & New Zealand in 2026 (in year-over-year terms). In Australia, we forecast headline inflation to be 4.2% (unchanged) but lower our forecast for trimmed mean inflation and GDP by 10bp to 3.4% and 1.7% respectively. In NZ, we lift forecast growth in headline CPI to 3.4% (prior: 3.3%), leave core inflation unchanged at 2.5%, and lower GDP growth to 2.0% (prior: 2.1%). From a policy perspective, we continue to expect the RBA to keep raising rates until they are confident that monetary policy is restrictive. Given the RBA’s recent upward revisions to estimates of the nominal neutral rate and material reassessment of broader financial conditions, we view this as consistent with the policy rate increasing 25bp in May and June to 4.60% - though we acknowledge the policy outlook is highly uncertain.