Trading with Cody

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I have found myself loving to build and learn from Manus from Meta (META), but I also use Gemini (and Google Gemini AI Studio) a lot and find it great too. The team use Claude quite a bit too I think. Anyway, some of these discussions about which LLM/Agentic AI is best reminds me of debating the merits of Alta Vista vs. Excite vs. Google. Likewise there will be some huge winners and some of the current batch of highly valued companies will fail someday too. $META $GOOGL #AI #LLM #AgenticAI #Gemini #ClaudeAI #TechTrends #FutureOfAI #Innovation #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

CRCL's been on a crazy run in just a few short weeks. It was probably due for a pullback. The CLARITY Act news is not all that material IMO. Whether stablecoins can pay yield is more of an issue for COIN than CRCL. We have never viewed USDC as a store of value asset. It will be used mostly for transactions. $CRCL #Stablecoins #USDC #Crypto #COIN #Fintech #Investing #Pullback @codywillard

What ARM announced last night about their new ARM AGI CPU was incredibly significant and exactly one of the key validations of our thesis that we were looking for. We redid our ARM model last night with very conservative, reasonable assumptions and the numbers can get quite staggering if this plays out well for them. Wall Street was asleep on this name but is now waking up. We are mostly sitting tight. $ARM #AI #AGI #Semiconductors #RevolutionaryInvesting #AIInfrastructure @codywillard

The AI Revolution Call x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

A. Memory is on fire and unstoppable. Would you dip your toe in SanDisk (SNDK) or Micron Technology (MU)? A. We should have been in those names a year ago. The problem with them now, as always, is that they sell a pretty commoditized product in a pretty competitive oligopolical industry which means: There will always be more supply that comes online when profits in the industry are high. Their customers will always try to find alternatives when the products are expensive and hitting the cap ex meaningfully, as memory has historically been somewhat de minimis as a data center input cost, but is not like that right now. I guess I would say that most investors in those names are probably betting that they will be able to get out of those names when the cycle peaks and I would rather own names that think are platform builders with monopolistic industries that I plan to own forever. $SNDK $MU #Investing #ChipStocks #MarketCycles @codywillard

I'd rather buy MSFT than short it right now at these valuations, but my biggest problem with Microsoft is that they make crappy applications on top of crappy, unsecure operating systems on crappy computers with most crappy CPUs powering them. I'd rather buy more Apple (AAPL) than buy a new position in MSFT. $MSFT $AAPL #Investing @codywillard

Q. With inference getting more attention, do we revisit Intel (INTC)? Nvidia's lead is increasing in inference and almost every other way too. Intel's gotta figure out how to do the fab business for other companies and if it pulls that off, the stock will work. With Nvidia and plenty of other companies using ARM (ARM) designs to build CPUs, Intel's core CPU business, while it is sold out for a year or two right now, is definitely under assault long-term. So, no, no INTC for me here. $INTC $ARM $NVDA #Investing @codywillard

Going live!

Q. Is it me or is Tesla's (TSLA) Robotaxi rollout going a lot slower than anticipated??? I thought they'd be in many cities by now, not just two. A. The robotaxi rollout has indeed been slower than anticipated. That's part of why I wrote this a couple weeks ago in chat: "The execution hasn't been great compared to Elon's promises of scaling Robotaxis. If they do start scaling Robotaxis and there are no major accidents, I'd expect the stock to work higher. But the scaling needs to start sooner rather than later, IMHO." I'm a bit surprised that the stock has hung in there as well as it has while the robotaxi rollout has been slower than people expected (and slower than Elon promised, of course, haha). Anyway, I think TSLA stock is probably in no-man's land here right now and will be rangebound until/unless the robotaxi rollout accelerates (and/or Optimus progress is mind-blowingly updated or something like that). Long-term, steady as she goes. $TSLA #Tesla #Robotaxi #Optimus #AutonomousVehicles #TeslaStock #EV #Investing @codywillard

I'm not sure why there's so much short interest in SATS but even if those shorts are outright shorts SATS because they think it is going to crash (and aren't just short it because they're hedging a #SpaceX or other arbitrage set up somehow) that doesn't mean they'll all go rush to cover on the news of $SATS getting into the S&P 500. The most recent example of a stock getting included into an index and going straight down afterward that I can remember off the top of my head would be Strategy Inc (MSTR) getting into the Invesco $QQQ Trust (QQQ) in December 2024. The stock was at $410 the day of the announcement and popped another 5-10% the next day. Two weeks later it was at $330. It's now at $150. Fundamentals matter. Index inclusion is noise. Rock on. $SATS $SPY $MSTR $QQQ #IndexInclusion #Investing @codywillard

Higher oil and gas prices are definitely inflationary pressures, but not to the same extent that money printing from central banks are. I think inflation is going to trend downwards overall for most things over the next year or two as AI and other efficiencies scale up and impact productivity in the broader services economy. To answer your question though, yes, the Iran War is an inflationary pressure for now. #Inflation #OilPrices #CentralBanks #AI #MacroEconomics @codywillard

We Are LIVE!!!!

And last year at the crypto highs, I wrote over and over about how I thought crypto was about to enter another #CryptoWinter. That's what's happened. Bitcoin will probably be fine in a few years from now. But I don't think bitcoin is a great trade set up here right now. 3/3

Most asset classes around the world, including these 'stores of value' assets are at or near-all time highs and are probably crowded trades at this point. The relentless drive to devalue every fiat currency is, as always, a tailwind over the long-term for these assets, but I'm not so sure gold or silver or bitcoin are going to be great investments over the next four quarters. " 2/3

What I wrote in my predictions piece for 2026: "1) #Gold, #silver, #bitcoin and other 'stores of value' have a terrible year as earnings and margin growth in the real economy will accelerate so strongly that people seek out cash generating businesses instead of 'stores of value' assets. 1/3

There are NOT ENOUGH people to fill all the jobs that are coming down the pike enabled by The AI and Robotics Revolutions. Also, if I'm wrong about any of this, China's really screwed and the US will still be fine. But I'm not wrong about this.

I have no idea why everybody is so sure that when they look around at society and the economy today that we are almost at PEAK EVERYTHING. Like, there are always more homes to be built, there are always more floors to be laid, there are always more people who need access to health care, there are always more people who could use affordable attorneys, accountants, tax programs, etc. etc. etc.

Q. What are your thoughts on the article from Citrini Research? A. I mean, the whole article reads like the authors were going for maximum dystopian scenarios. I have been saying for years now and I will repeat it again today: The AI Revolution and The Robotics Revolution will CREATE more jobs than they destroy.

Private credit is in a bubble and there's a lot LOT LOT of private equity and private credit and private assets that need to marked down 50-90%, especially software companies that were taken private in the last couple years. That said, if the economics of #AI #datacenter build outs remain as healthy with these quick payback periods, I think there will certainly be money for those buildouts to continue, even if private equity can't participate anymore. #Investing #TradingWithCody @codywillard