Travis Hoium

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@layla_electric It has nothing to do with regulations. Rivian doesn’t even have the tech for L4 autonomy built.

@TravisHoium Sharp read. That 2028 timeline reveals regulatory friction delaying AV scale. Logistics talent relocates to the UAE because stable governance accelerates deployment.

To be clear, Uber isn’t necessarily buying 50,000 vehicles. $UBER $RIVN Uber OR its partners will buy 10k with the OPTION to buy another 40k. More importantly, INITIAL commercial deployments expected in 2028. Most of the deals announced recently have an initial deployment of NOW or BY EOY 2026! Rivian is at least 2 years behind a half dozen companies Uber is already working with.

$HIMS Analysts are expecting a 22.4% Y/Y growth rate at Hims & Hers in Q4 2026. That might be wrong by a wide margin because: - Eucalyptus acquisition ($100M+ per Q) - Novo deal - Peptide launch later in 2026 I don't make models, but $1 billion in revenue in Q4 2026 (62% growth both organic and acquired) doesn't seem out of the question in an optimistic scenario.

Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad.

Great question from Jose here!

So, Rivian is going to build out its own ride-sharing network instead of selling vehicles to consumers? They don't have the capacity to BOTH build a viable manufacturing business and scale a ride-sharing fleet to provide a "more-available option." Meanwhile, companies with existing capacity are testing, designing, and scaling their future autonomous vehicles. Don't think they're standing still. This is what I've long been critical of. Where's the focus for Rivian? They vertically integrate to make a better, premium product, but they don't have the scale/demand to make the economics of vertical integration work. They modularize some of their tech with the VW JV but that reduces differentiation and enables another competitor, which is counter to building an advantage from vertically integrating. Now, they are going to plug into Uber, but they're also going to build out their own ride-sharing network? There are more than a dozen competitors that are further along in their autonomy journey than Rivian and there's no evidence Rivian has a real cost advantage. We haven't seen many fully integrated vehicles yet (most have the "halo") but they're coming. IMO, Rivian has to prove it can do one thing successfully at scale. To date, it is a niche supplier with a high price point and negative margins. It doesn't even have the capacity to get to positive FCF. It's a lot of hoops from here to owning an autonomous fleet that has enough utilization to be profitable. Tesla is another story. I don't think they have the hardware for L4 and I don't think they will ever have their own network at scale. But I've been saying that for many years and everyone still thinks I'm wrong. Elon can feel free to prove me wrong. The fun thing is, this is what makes markets.

Yes, building the ride-sharing app customers, is the easiest of the 3 things. Nobody other than $TSLA has #1 & #2. Not sure how you came to the conclusion that #1 and #2 are commodities. You could argue $RIVN has #1 and Waymo has #2. That's about it. Everybody else needs add-ons for #1. In a two-sided market, which is what $UBER plays in today, Uber has a MAJOR advantage and nobody else can compete anymore. This is a world where you need both drivers AND customers...without drivers, customers won't come, without customers, drivers won't come. So nobody can launch a 2-sided ride-sharing service and compete with Uber. However, in a 1-sided market, where a tech-provider floods a market with the drivers, all they need is the customers...and it's relatively easy to get customers because you can do that by: - Providing a lower-cost option - Providing a more-available option - Providing a safer option Or ideally, doing all 3. That's how Tesla plans to win. And they will.

Key to understanding Autonomy/Robotaxis of the future. There are 3 KEY Components: #1 - Vehicle with Autonomy Hardware #2 - Autonomy Software (the brains) #3 - Ride-sharing network (the customers) The 3 parts above are considered "the full stack." $UBER has #3. It's partnering with everyone for #1 & #2. $GOOGL has #2 with Waymo and has slowly been building its own #3. It partners with Jaguar, Hundai and others for #1. It has also partnered with Uber to get more access to #3. $TSLA is building THE FULL STACK! They own #1, they're on the verge of having #2 and they are building #3, which if they can compete on price & safety, should be easy to build. This is why Tesla investors are super excited...because Tesla's full-stack strategy is similar to Apple's iPhone and will likely win out. $RIVN has #1 and is building its own #2 and has stayed silent on possibly building its own #3. It's at least 1 year, but realistically 2 years behind Tesla on #2. Despite Uber's current lead in ride-sharing, once autonomous vehicles enter the market, Uber's ride-sharing network is the easiest part of the stack to build from scratch. So if we fast-forward 5 years to 2031, here's how I see this playing out for autonomous ride-sharing: #1: Tesla #2: Waymo #3: Uber #4: Rivian But fast-forward 10 years to 2036, and I think this is the likely outcome: #1: Tesla #2: Rivian #3: Waymo #4: Nobody. In most markets there are 2 major winners, a distant 3rd, and a lot of companies that die.

@TechEquityEng I did see Lucid say premium. I never saw Uber say luxury or premium. That’s all I’m saying. I assume Lucid would push for a premium spot like Uber Black, but no evidence I could find that Uber is making that distinction.

@TravisHoium For lucid in particular they mentioned in an interview somewhere that it’s the luxury segment. I wouldn’t say it’s that surprising… the car is definitely an upscale car.

For perspective on where Rivian stands compared to other robotaxi companies that will be on Uber, Lucid started testing 3 months ago and expects a path to launch "later in 2026."

@TechEquityEng Why do you think Lucid is targeting the luxury segment? We haven’t seen any indication that Uber will price autonomous vehicles any differently. Maybe they do, I just don’t see that in the releases.

@TravisHoium Correct. Market is big enough for many players so both Rivian and Lucid will be successful. Lucid is targeting the luxury segment for $UBER. Curious what segment rivian will be for.

@chris_eisener Every release they prove why they will be a terrible long-term investment. Uber is commoditizing autonomy and Rivian is spending more money to finish developing autonomy in service of supplying a commoditized product. It shows how desperate Rivian is to get any demand it can.

@TravisHoium Respectfully, you really go out of your way to poo-poo Rivian...I think every announcement you comment negatively on

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"In addition, the Company no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap." There's also a clause that allows Uber to elect to receive "pre-funded warrants", which have no real purpose except maintaining the price per share exercise price without exceeding the 20% ownership threshold. So, Uber is hedging the risk that Rivian is less than a $5 billion company in the future... $RIVN

@arthritisfinger Definitely a wide range of possible outcomes.

@TravisHoium I don’t think that we can really predict it right now. Many new catalysts, much execution necessary. Either way $HIMS will become one of the top of not the number 1 digital healthcare provider. Great times ahead! 💯

@jwat_5 Watch the coverage though. Most headlines will be “Uber to buy 50k Rivian vehicles.” That framing misses the full business model and the points of power in the supply chain.

@TravisHoium Gotcha. We agree. To me it’s just so obvious Uber isn’t buying 50,000 vehicles it’s not notable.

It’s confirmation as to how the business model is playing out. - Uber/Lyft are the demand aggregators. - Fleet operators will be a commoditized utility layer. - OEMs are…exactly what they’ve always been, which is a commoditized, non-differentiated, low ROI manufacturing business.

@TravisHoium Why is “OR its partners” notable? Uber and Lyft have repeatedly said they want to remain capital light long-term but will invest opportunistically short-term. Not surprising at all that Moove or a finance partner will end up purchasing the majority of fleet vehicles.

@tunguz They're a case study in how to commoditize your compliments. Brilliant execution, and suppliers are happy to comply.

Uber is so back.