CA Vivek Khatri@CaVivekkhatri
I get it. The LPG crisis feels real. The charts are going vertical. Your friend just made 12% on Stove Kraft overnight.
And now you're staring at the screen wondering if you're missing out.
Let me tell you what's actually happening.
West Asia tensions spiked crude to $93. Commercial LPG supply got disrupted in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Delhi, Chennai. Hotels started shutting kitchens. Blinkit and Zepto ran out of induction cooktops. Retailers reported 3x sales in 48 hours.
And the market went completely berserk.
TTK Prestige → hit ₹556 on March 11. Up 15% in a single session. Was at its 52-week LOW of ₹442 just the day before on March 10.
Butterfly Gandhimathi → surged 17% intraday on March 11. Continued another 8.7% on March 12, touching ₹757.
Stove Kraft → jumped 16% intraday on March 11. Still holding gains near ₹535-567.
Three days. These stocks moved like they reported 3x earnings growth.
They didn't. A gas pipeline got disrupted.
Here's what nobody is saying out loud → TTK Prestige's profits have been declining. Revenue grew just 5.87% annually over the last 5 years. The stock was sitting at a 52-week low for a reason. None of that changed this week.
What changed is a narrative. And narratives are the most dangerous thing to buy at the top of.
Think about what actually needs to stay true for this trade to work → the conflict escalates, LPG stays disrupted for months, government doesn't intervene, consumers permanently shift to induction, and these companies execute flawlessly on the demand surge.
Every single one of those is a conditional. Miss any one of them and the stock retraces everything in 3 sessions.
One ceasefire announcement. One government order capping LPG prices. One statement from BPCL saying supply is normalising.
That's it. The trade unwinds.
And the people who bought Butterfly at ₹755 this morning chasing the third day of a crisis rally → they'll be the ones asking "what went wrong" in a week.
We've watched this movie before. Defence stocks in 2022. Fertilizer stocks after Ukraine. Pharma stocks during Covid. The script is always the same. Smart money positioned early, retail spotted the move on day 3, news channels ran the story on day 4, and the correction started on day 5.
You are reading this on day 3.
If you genuinely believe in the long-term structural shift to induction cooking in India → that's a real thesis. India's induction penetration is low. The LPG import dependency is 62%, with 85-90% flowing through Hormuz. That vulnerability isn't going away.
But that thesis plays out over quarters. Not in 72 hours.
If you want exposure, wait for the hype to exhaust itself. Let the FOMO sellers clear out. Enter when volumes normalize, not when they're 10x average on panic buying.
The best trades don't come from chasing. They come from waiting.