John Kenny

New article from John Kenny , Lucas Geese , Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni reviews the usage of climate change questions in public opinion surveys & provides an overview of the types of concepts that can be elicited from these. @_johnkenny @LucasGeese doi.org/10.1080/096440…

🍊Fresh out! 🗒️In their note, @LucasGeese, @chantalS_T, @_johnkenny, Andy Jordan & Irene Lorenzoni explore conceptual complexities inherent to the nature of #climatechange and the impact this has on text-as-data 👉 bit.ly/3M48jZ3 #OA #TADA #comparativepolitics #policy

📢 Publication Alert! Wondering about how to measure climate policy content in text-as-data? Our new OPEN ACCESS article might provide (some) answers: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… @CAST_Centre @ClimateUEA_ @TyndallCentre

@_johnkenny studies public support for withdrawing from international climate cooperation and finds that such support has been lower in liberal democracies, which are less dependent on fossil fuels for energy production. doi.org/10.1080/138769…

Our article at @WIREs_Reviews Climate Change is now out. In it, we present the results of our systematic review of the literature on politicians and climate change. See below for further details. doi.org/10.1002/wcc.908

Our Final Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election is now out. For those at #EPSA2024 , do come to the Methodological Innovations panel at 9am on Friday for a very timely post-mortem of how the forecasts perform.

In advance of tomorrow's UK general election, @mlewisbeck and I examine what a political economy-based forecasting model suggests for the fate of the Conservative Party. electionsetc.com/2024/07/03/ele…

📊 Get the latest UK election opinion polls! Prof @StephenDFisher and alum Dr @_johnkenny are amongst those providing seat projections for the @Guardian 📰 Read more here ⬇️ #UKElections theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead on votes (same as last week). See details of the Fifth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/26/fif…

The blog post includes a table listing seat forecasts for all six of the latest MRP models: electionsetc.com/2024/06/19/fou…

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Fourth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/19/fou…

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 192, and a 21-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Third Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/12/thi…

'Fuzzy Frontiers? Testing the Fluidity of National, Partisan and #Brexit Identities in the Aftermath of the 2016 Referendum' by @_johnkenny, @DrLARichards & Anthony Heath. In @PolStudies: ow.ly/LCVo50Gpl4q #PolStudiesUKGE 4/27 @PolStudiesAssoc @SAGECQPolitics #freeaccess

Second Combined Forecast for UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny, Paul Furey and Polina Ryzhuk: Averaging forecasts suggests Labour have an 87% chance of winning a majority, winning with a lead of 21-points and a majority of 197. electionsetc.com/2024/06/06/sec…

First Combined Forecast for UK 2024 General Election, with @_johnkenny, Paul Furey and Polina Ryzhuk: Average of forecasts suggest Labour have an 86% chance of winning a majority, and are estimated to win with a lead of 20-points and majority of 188. electionsetc.com/2024/05/30/fir…

Substack version of my postmortem on the UK 2019 General Election forecasts (with @_johnkenny and @RosieShorrocks, originally on ElectionsEtc.com) open.substack.com/pub/electionse…

My postmortem on the UK 2019 general election forecasts with @_johnkenny and @RosieShorrocks : Polls did well, and uniform change from polls was a good guide to seats - better than betting markets and most other methods. electionsetc.com/2024/05/29/how…

We are delighted to announce that the call for papers for #EPOP2024 is now open! This will take place at the University of Manchester from 11-13 September. Deadline for applications is 21st May. To submit, please follow this link: shorturl.at/abkCT

Do ‘tough’ mainstream party positions on immigration affect public political trust? My new @GovandOpp OA article, based on @ESS_Survey data shows how this can be detrimental to overall levels of public political trust. Especially immigration-welcomers’ trust levels suffer.