@silver207141 There might be one more liquidity driven drop. But after that 🚀
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A.D
1.7K posts
A.D
@admacroviews
Macroeconomics, geopolitics, precious metals ✝️
france เข้าร่วม Ocak 2013
516 กำลังติดตาม176 ผู้ติดตาม
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Toute la famille MAGA se sent profondément trahie par Trump, il n’y a plus que les QAnon pour le soutenir mais pour eux il est absolument infaillible et tout ce qu’il fait est un calcul impénétrable que seul lui peut comprendre…
…c’est leur Jésus en quelque sorte.
ThePatrioticBlonde🇺🇸@ImBreckWorsham
Here's the thing. We handed Trump everything. On a golden platter. We gave him the House. We gave him the Senate. We gave him the greatest comeback victory in political history with a popular vote never before seen in a presidential campaign. We fought for him. We believed in him. Many of us lost friends. Lost jobs. Lost FAMILY over our support of him. Many of us have dedicated more than a decade of our lives to him in the hopes of seeing him succeed. Some even spent YEARS in prison. Some DIED for the cause. Only to be lied to. Used. Betrayed. So I don't particularly give a fuck what any of you MAGA cultists out there who are too stupid to realize how badly you've been played think of me. I don't think of you at all.
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@DonDurrett Yes, and silver as well (electric cars, photovoltaic, weapons etc). Also, grains.
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Rubio: "The war will only last 2-4 more weeks."
That sounds like we plan to walk within a month, even if we don't get a deal to open the Strait. Or, we will accept a bad deal.
The chance of a good deal in 2-4 weeks seems unlikely.
My reaction: The US economy was already slowing into a recession, and this only speeds that up. The winner? Gold.
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Choices: 1. Let 10y UST yields spike, hitting stocks, housing, & economy. 2. Print USD into an oil spike to cap 10y yields, hitting USD. 3. Walk away, granting Iran a strategic victory. Let's watch.
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@Historionome Quand on a des experts militaires comme ça, autant demander conseils au boulanger 🤣🤣🤣
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Notez que le port iranien de Bandar Anzali, sur la Caspienne, qui servait sans doute de point de passage à la fourniture de drones russes à l'Iran a été frappé par Israël le 18 mars, et le lancement de drones iraniens a culminé le 19 mars avant de décroître à nouveau fortement.
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@manonbymanon_ C est très bien. Mais ne pas oublier qu elle avait été obligée de rembourser environ 80000 euros pour emploi fictif alors que son mari était maire du Chesnay.
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AVANT / APRÈS
Le nouveau maire du Chesnay (Yvelines) Anne Père-Brillault a retiré les drapeaux de l'Union européenne et de l'Ukraine du fronton de la mairie. Bravo madame !
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A.D รีทวีตแล้ว
A.D รีทวีตแล้ว
Si les baptêmes augmentent, ce n’est pas un hasard.
Nos contemporains étouffent dans ce monde sans Dieu.
Voilà pourquoi ils frappent à la porte de l’Église et cela prouve bien que la foi n’est pas du passé : elle répond à une soif bien réelle !
#Monaco 🇲🇨🙏🏻
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A.D รีทวีตแล้ว
@PresentWitness_ I agree on most of what you wrote except central banks selling PMs for oil. PMs are going down because of the liquidity crisis. They will then go 🚀, as will all commodities.
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The Everything Crash
Normally when the stock market goes down, the bond market goes up. This provides stability to the average investor’s portfolio.
However, due to the war in Iran, oil prices are rising, causing inflation to rise. As a result, the Fed can’t cut interest rates. They are now pricing in interest rate raises, which in turn, leads to lower bond prices and higher yields.
Because investors are now anticipating higher bond yields in the future, this makes debt more expensive, increasing the cost of capital, which has a negative effect on future growth projections.
On top of all this, precious metals are selling off because central banks are trading gold and silver for oil.
This has created a situation where stocks, bonds, and precious metals are crashing while bond yields and inflation are increasing.
Soon GDP forecasts will have to be slashed and corporate revenue and earnings projections will have to be reduced.
In my 15+ year investment career, this is the worst macroeconomic backdrop I have ever seen.
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@Irmalavraie Celle qui arrive n'est pas une récession mais une dépression.
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A.D รีทวีตแล้ว
Food cost will increase 60-100% because of the fertilizer crisis
Right now it’s a cost problem.
Within weeks, it becomes a supply problem.
Within months, it becomes a yield problem.
ft.com/content/27e07c…
#EnergyCrisis #FoodSecurity #Fertilizer #Inflation #Geopolitics
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A.D รีทวีตแล้ว
It’s official.
Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level.
I expect this move to accelerate from here.
When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup.
Be mindful of the social and political consequences of rising food prices.
My latest macro presentation:
tavicosta.substack.com/p/opportunity-…
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@admacroviews Not sure what you mean by Covid levels. 2020 was an awful year for commodities, #grains included.
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1 #Grains are cheap
2 #Fertilizers are ripping higher
3 Farmers are getting squeezed hard - the math isn’t working anymore.
= Something has to change.
#winning #goldenage #oatt
Josh Linville@JLinvilleFert
Not a great update for the fertilizer/corn ratios this week: Urea - highest ever this time of year (2nd worst EVER) UAN - highest ever this time of year (3rd worst EVER) DAP - 3rd highest ever this time of year Potash - SOLIDLY PRICED, continues to show amble supplies
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Long Oil. L'🇮🇷 va faire exploser les prix du Oil & Gaz.
محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf@mb_ghalibaf
They’ve spammed so much fake news trying to push energy prices down that the market’s just numb now. Keep going, nobody’s buying it anymore. The real prices will show up anyway. Powerful? Maybe. But Smart? Not even close. Burned that fake news card way too early.
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@A_H_Alexander Il est censé arriver après la victoire contre l'Iran, non? Mais c'est mal barré...
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@CBKimbrell I have dryland and am concerned for my unplanted crop already.
I wonder what happens if by Tuesday next week there are 98 million corn acres & the war ends on the same day?
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What would happen to your operation if corn prices dropped $.75 after next Tuesday's report?
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@serbskvlad J' ai pas mal accumulé entre 500 et 515. Ça a vegeté pendant longtemps à ces niveaux et mes positions sont enfin (bien) gagnantes. Le Quantitative Easing à venir enverra toutes les matières premières 🚀
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@admacroviews Yes, c’est le take que j’ai pris. L’idée des 550-580 c’était de renforcer la position si le marché offrait ce prix.
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Long sur le $WHEAT
Ce long est dans une strat swing.
Renfort sur les 550$ prévu.
Le trade s’inscrit dans la macro infla sur les MP.
Dosvla.btc@serbskvlad
Je surveille également le ble $WHEAT pour une entrée en swing. Dans l'attente d'une correction pour lancer le trade.
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@mcm_ct_usa @realDonaldTrump Who does believe this administration anymore anyway?
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this shit is reminding me of @realDonaldTrump’s last bullshit about just a few days to flatten the curve and then two weeks to flatten the curve and then…
He is an imposter traitor and a Trojan horse
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
RUBIO TOLD G7 FOREIGN MINISTERS TODAY THAT THE WAR WITH IRAN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-4 WEEKS
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@DavidLe76335983 @Frederi55284379 Another catalyst to add for the forthcoming market disaster!
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