alienkukuda

@0xFatCatHQ 我记得之前比赛是有历史对战记录的，对于lol来说，但是现在没有了，好可惜

Polymarket 圈子里有个流传挺广的玩法:抓电竞比赛,用两队的历史胜率算"真胜率",跟市场赔率比,差大了就下注。听起来挺有道理——市场对小众电竞队不熟,你做做历史功课就有 edge。 我把 2024 年 9 月到 2026 年 3 月一年半里,Polymarket 上3031 场结算过的电竞比赛全拉下来,1240 场能提取到清晰的赛前共识价。先做一件最朴素的事:看市场赔率到底准不准。 结果:从 0.1 到 0.9 九个价格区间,每一档的实际胜率跟市场标价几乎完美对得上,没有一档存在统计上显著的偏差。也就是说,市场已经把它该定的价基本都定了,留给你的 alpha 趋近于零。 我跑了八个不同的 threshold + prior 组合,每组做 2/3 训练 + 1/3 时间外测试。 每一组,训练集上看着都赚——ROI 从 +11% 到 +47%。其中"最优"那组训练 ROI +47.97%。但翻到测试集,全部亏损,亏 12% 到 43% 不等。最优那组训练 +47.97% → 测试 -23.51%。 这不是策略不行,这是教科书级的 overfit。任何看够多噪音的人都能在训练集找出"看起来赚钱"的参数,这些参数到了没见过的数据上就变成纯亏。 教训就一条:在电竞 prediction market 上拿历史胜率打市场,人家市场早把你那点信息消化进价格里了。你看到的 edge 是数据采样误差,不是真实信号。

@CMouseF fm是对的

离开币圈，去买白银！白银！白银！

🚀 Thrilled to join @BlubBlobCoin 's revolution! As a cross-chain strategist with proven track record in Avalanche ecosystem (C-chain integrations, BENQI's $1.7B TVL surge), I'm ready to: Let's make #Blub the first biomechanical DAO prototype! #AVAX #DeFi

@goldplayerNFT @Bitget_zh 梭哈梭哈

@CMouseF f哥看空了 那我先跑了

大饼看这样子，第一季度也就这鸟样了，搞不好还得去一下 7 开头，如果要去的话，应该就在这个月

Rune Mania Miner partners with @luminexio for Season 2 mint 🤝 📍 Minting on @luminexio 📆 Wednesday April 10 🕰️ 10:00 AM EST ✨ 0.0009 BTC + fees ➡️ WL and public sale Who's ready for RUNE MANIA?

Requesting $ETH funds from the #Stakely Faucet on the Ethereum Holesky Testnet blockchain. Request ID: XNTU746Y stakely.io/en/faucet/ethe…

@Yes_X_ @404Alphabet @okx 0x28bF7De4c3B52975D36A55c1F7ccB6Af131EFa83 @xiaopigu208 @xhcoding1029 @ChengKainan

@404Alphabet What... is alpha404 and I will tell you

@AbyssWorldHQ good good

The 1000 certificates were all redeemed within 30 minutes! What a passionate community! Congratulations to those who managed to get those. The $MGC certificates will be available again tomorrow at 12:00 GMT, so please get your credits ready!

🌟 Stake $AWT to Earn $MGC is live- Exclusive perks for $AWT HOLDERS🌟 Utilize the AW Stake2Earn Portal: tournament.abyssworld.games/points-mall 🚀 Earn credits and redeem them for your $MGC certificate. Don't miss out! 🎁 @ABYSS_WORLD/unlocking-mgc-a-gift-for-abyss-world-supporters-gamers-ecfae4c61a87" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@ABYSS_WORLD/u… #AW2.0 #Stake2Earn #AWT #MGC @chainlink @XterioGames @spaceandtime

@JIAMITANG @9gagceo @realnobodyxyz @stephenchow 确实确实的😭

上聯：一年一影帝，百年周星馳 下聯：小人物千萬，至尊寶無雙 橫批：圖片有價，回憶無價 @realnobodyxyz @stephenchow

@nateholiday @spaceandtime I hope it will have a different feeling when combined with the game

Build with @spaceandtime ☑️ Across clouds & GTM partners ☑️ Across Blockchains ☑️ Web3 & Web2 Channel partnerships ☑️ Bundled Freely: Storage, RPC, Indexing, Oracles, APIs, BI App ☑️ ZK-coprocessor ☑️ open-source GPU acceleration framework for ZK proofs ☑️ Backed by an industry patent for offchain query verification 20 years of relentless GTM execution and devising + securing moats. We are just getting started.

@mindnetwork_xyz @Galxe #MindNetworkTestnet, #FHE @xhcoding1029 @xiaopigu208

📢 The Mind Network Testnet is Now LIVE: dapptest.mindnetwork.xyz Earn rewards by engaging with the #MindNetwork Testnet and be among the first in Web3 to use #FHE for secure asset transfers! Untraceable yet verifiable; truly a new paradigm! 👉 Join now on @Galxe: galxe.com/MindNetwork/ca…

@DementedNFT Secretly been holding some fuddies for almost 8 months

Interact with this tweet if you are active on $Sui Might dm a few people something 👀🌊

@AbyssWorldHQ @SECGov GMGM

Who’s here waiting for #BitcoinEFTs’ approval ? ✋ Enter Code: #BitcoinETF & @SECGov

@inscrib3 @RuneX_Tech @trac_btc @PipeBtc @rarity_garden @DantesAlterEgo @thewrlck @chefpino_ @chenjinying6 @xiaopigu208 @ChengKainan lfg

🧧 GIVEAWAY 20x BOX 3.0 🎁 1⃣ Follow: @inscrib3 @RuneX_Tech 2⃣ Like, RT 3⃣ Tag 3 friends Different surprises await you in your box.

@AbyssWorldHQ $BVB or $SxT

Gazer $Sui + $❔+ more

@arevbn @nodemonkes Send nodes 🚀📷🚀

@FEIlXIE @AmbrusStudio @xiaopigu208 @ChengKainan @xhcoding1029 也是深渊的家人，希望能中 哈哈哈

E4C x 0xKEY-Epic Fast Pass *3 由前 Riot Games 亚太区 CEO Johnson Yeh 创办的 Ambrus Studio 正在开发一款移动原生 MOBA 游戏。 Alpha Test 将于 1 月初启动，有机会获得空投的 $E4C 代币，Epic Fast Pass 玩家将享受额外的 20% 代币奖励。抽3张Epic Fast Pass，要求： 1️⃣关注 @AmbrusStudio & @FEIlXIE 2️⃣♥️+🔁+Tag3 3⃣加入DC discord.gg/e4c 4⃣在官网注册: alpha-test.ambrus.studio #E4C #MOBA

@BitValueCapital @AbyssWorldHQ @SpieldTrading 0x28bF7De4c3B52975D36A55c1F7ccB6Af131EFa83 gogogo