Jack

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Jack

Jack

@allthemoneys

Retail Johnny. Lifetime Student. Reading https://t.co/GMAdy1ASJC.

LA เข้าร่วม Nisan 2020
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Tim Hollingsworth
Tim Hollingsworth@GRTOceanRd·
#EURUSD. The Enemy Within. 🙂 1/7
Why do FX traders hold losers way longer than winners — even when they get the direction right? This is one of the most expensive biases in trading. It’s called the Disposition Effect. Here’s why it happens and how it destroys accounts. 🧵 2/7
The Disposition Effect = selling winners too early while holding losers too long. Classic study by Terrance Odean (1998): Individual traders sold winning positions ~50% more often than losing ones. The winners they sold actually kept going up more than the losers they held. Same pattern shows up in retail FX trading. 3/7
A 2025 study of over 1 million retail FX trades confirmed it:
Traders sell gains faster and hold losses longer — especially on “home currency” pairs. Losing trades get held significantly longer, and average losses end up much bigger than average wins. 4/7
Why does this happen? Main reason: Loss aversion (from Prospect Theory). Losses hurt ~2x more than equivalent gains feel good. •Closing a loser = admitting you were wrong + real pain •So you “hold and hope” it comes back On winners you take profit fast to lock in the good feeling and avoid regret if it reverses. 5/7
Other factors: •Ego (“I can’t be wrong”) •Sunk cost fallacy •Overconfidence in your original analysis •No hard rules for stops/targets In leveraged FX markets, these emotions get amplified massively. 6/7
The result?
Small wins + big losses = terrible risk-reward. Even if your direction is correct, you cut the good trades short and let the bad ones run. Your winners never pay for your losers. This is why so many traders stay unprofitable despite decent analysis. 7/7
Fix it:
Use mechanical rules. Predefine your stop and target (or trailing stop) before you enter.
Track your hold-time ratio in a journal (winners vs losers). Process > emotion. The market doesn’t care about your entry price or how “right” you were. Save this thread if it hit home. #TradingPsychology #Forex #DispositionEffect
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
The Honest Trader
The Honest Trader@TheH0n3stTrader·
You'll be making $10,000 a month trading by your next birthday. Dude, lock in.
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Tim Hollingsworth
Tim Hollingsworth@GRTOceanRd·
#EURUSD has a lot of wood to chop to get over 1.1600. Probable range for EUR/USD next week (June 15–21, 2026): 1.1480 – 1.1680 Current Price (as of Friday, June 12 close) ≈ 1.1565 – 1.1575 The pair closed the week with a modest gain but remains near two-month lows after earlier pressure from hotter US inflation and geopolitical tensions. Key Levels for Next Week Support: •1.1500 — Critical psychological and technical floor (recent low, major battleground) •1.1450 – 1.1480 •1.1400 – 1.1420 (deeper target if broken) Resistance: •1.1580 – 1.1600 (immediate hurdle + moving averages) •1.1640 – 1.1660 •1.1670 – 1.1700 What to Expect Next Week The main event is the FOMC meeting (June 16–17), with the rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, June 17. Rates are expected to be held, but markets will scrutinize the dot plot, economic projections, and tone — especially with recent sticky inflation data. Other notable data: •US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Monday) •Housing Starts & Building Permits (Tuesday) •Retail Sales (likely Wednesday) Weekend context: Optimism around a potential US-Iran/Middle East de-escalation (Trump comments) has provided some support for risk assets and a softer USD tone heading into Monday. This could limit immediate downside pressure at the open. Bias & Scenarios •Base case (most probable): Range-bound trading between 1.1500 – 1.1650, with volatility spiking around the FOMC. •Bullish breakout (toward upper end or beyond): Weak US data + dovish-leaning Fed tone + confirmed de-escalation → move toward 1.1640–1.1680+. •Bearish breakdown (toward lower end): Strong US data or hawkish Fed signals → test of 1.1500, with potential extension to 1.1450 or lower. Overall short-term bias: Neutral to slightly bearish. The pair has struggled to sustain rallies despite the ECB’s recent rate hike, and USD resilience remains a factor until the FOMC clarifies the policy path. This range accounts for typical weekly volatility around a major central bank event. Expect choppy price action, especially mid-week. Note: Forex markets are event-driven — actual range can expand if surprises occur (strong data, hawkish/dovish surprises, or geopolitical developments). Always manage risk accordingly.
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
One Trump Post Knocked the Dollar Off 100 $GLD $SLV $GDX $SPX
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
Thank you Hagen!
VBL’s Ghost tweet media
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Jack
Jack@allthemoneys·
Gap down weekend incoming
zerohedge@zerohedge

Top Overnight News The US and Iran moved closer to an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially around next week’s G-7 meeting, according to senior officials. The US is to withdraw forces from the area surrounding Iran under a potential deal, Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr reported. BBG The United States plans to significantly reduce the aircraft and warships that it makes available for NATO operations in Europe, according to two senior European officials, accelerating America’s effort to scale down the protection it has offered to European allies for eight decades. NYT Global banks are curbing hedge funds’ leveraged bets on Asia’s top chipmakers including SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. after a blistering rally this year raised concerns of a potential pullback. BBG Nvidia has told Chinese clients that its new "Vera" central processors for AI data centers could be available as soon as August and that they can begin placing orders, three sources familiar with the matter said. BBG China told big state-owned banks to reduce their lending in the interbank market, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to prevent borrowing costs from drifting too far below the policy interest rate. BBG Chinese investors are rushing to Hong Kong to open bank accounts and buy investment products, as Beijing cracks down on cross-border capital flows in a shift that shareholders fear may dent returns. FT The ECB is prepared to raise rates again next month if the shock from the war requires it, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. BBG The US insurance industry’s standard setter has begun to examine credit risks linked to data center projects, which are increasingly showing up in insurers’ investment portfolios. FT Big companies and startups, chafing at rapidly escalating artificial intelligence costs, are increasingly turning to tools that tap in to cheaper AI models, including some from China. That’s raising pressure on industry leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to lower their prices, a prospect that could hurt their ability to grow into profitable enterprises. WSJ US Senate Banking Committee is weighing a markup of export control legislation. It could tee up the bills for inclusion in the next annual defense policy package, no final decision has been made yet: Punchbowl US President Trump said regarding fertilizer prices, that they might look into federal aid, and are looking at doing some form of help. BofA weekly flow data shows USD 20.8bln into bonds (59th straight week of inflows), USD 2.5bln out of cash, USD 31.5bln into stocks, USD 0.7bln out of crypto (record inflows over 5 weeks), USD 2.3bln out of gold (4th straight week of outflows).

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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
Above $68.23, Silver Is Off to the Races $GLD $SLV $GDX $SPX
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Tim Hollingsworth
Tim Hollingsworth@GRTOceanRd·
#EURUSD EURUSD Setup – 12 June 2026 🧵 Current price: ~1.1572
4H ATR: ~16 pips My base view:
Expect a test lower first toward 1.1545, then a recovery push up toward 1.1620. Scenario 1 – Dip first (most likely near-term) •Quick move down to test 1.1560 → possible extension to 1.1545 •If 1.1545 holds → bounce back through 1.1570 toward 1.1600–1.1620 •Stop below 1.1520 if it breaks Scenario 2 – Direct upside •Strong reaction higher without deep dip •Break above 1.1580–1.1600 opens path to 1.1620 quickly •Next resistance cluster sits at 1.1660 Key driver right now:
Whatever comes out of Trump’s mouth on Middle East / tariffs / policy. One comment can flip the move fast. Risk management is key — this is technical + news-sensitive. Not financial advice.
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Jack
Jack@allthemoneys·
Cant pay Military Industrial Conplex, Halliburton types, and use Pentagon Government monies unless there aint no need for it. Gotta blow up some planes, boats, and oil refineries to rebuild. Hot take: there is now war, just Restructuring, but "war" satiates the curious
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Taylor Kenney
Taylor Kenney@taylorkenneyitm·
IT’S CLOSER THAN YOU THINK.
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VBL’s Ghost
VBL’s Ghost@Sorenthek·
Market Needs To Hold Here $GLD $SLV $GDX $SPX
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