Jack
46.6K posts

Jack
@allthemoneys
Retail Johnny. Lifetime Student. Reading https://t.co/GMAdy1ASJC.
LA เข้าร่วม Nisan 2020
7.5K กำลังติดตาม1.7K ผู้ติดตาม
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

#EURUSD. The Enemy Within. 🙂
1/7
Why do FX traders hold losers way longer than winners — even when they get the direction right?
This is one of the most expensive biases in trading. It’s called the Disposition Effect. Here’s why it happens and how it destroys accounts. 🧵
2/7
The Disposition Effect = selling winners too early while holding losers too long.
Classic study by Terrance Odean (1998): Individual traders sold winning positions ~50% more often than losing ones. The winners they sold actually kept going up more than the losers they held.
Same pattern shows up in retail FX trading.
3/7
A 2025 study of over 1 million retail FX trades confirmed it:
Traders sell gains faster and hold losses longer — especially on “home currency” pairs.
Losing trades get held significantly longer, and average losses end up much bigger than average wins.
4/7
Why does this happen?
Main reason: Loss aversion (from Prospect Theory).
Losses hurt ~2x more than equivalent gains feel good.
•Closing a loser = admitting you were wrong + real pain
•So you “hold and hope” it comes back
On winners you take profit fast to lock in the good feeling and avoid regret if it reverses.
5/7
Other factors:
•Ego (“I can’t be wrong”)
•Sunk cost fallacy
•Overconfidence in your original analysis
•No hard rules for stops/targets
In leveraged FX markets, these emotions get amplified massively.
6/7
The result?
Small wins + big losses = terrible risk-reward.
Even if your direction is correct, you cut the good trades short and let the bad ones run. Your winners never pay for your losers. This is why so many traders stay unprofitable despite decent analysis.
7/7
Fix it:
Use mechanical rules. Predefine your stop and target (or trailing stop) before you enter.
Track your hold-time ratio in a journal (winners vs losers).
Process > emotion.
The market doesn’t care about your entry price or how “right” you were.
Save this thread if it hit home.
#TradingPsychology #Forex #DispositionEffect
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

#EURUSD has a lot of wood to chop to get over 1.1600.
Probable range for EUR/USD next week (June 15–21, 2026): 1.1480 – 1.1680
Current Price (as of Friday, June 12 close)
≈ 1.1565 – 1.1575
The pair closed the week with a modest gain but remains near two-month lows after earlier pressure from hotter US inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Key Levels for Next Week
Support:
•1.1500 — Critical psychological and technical floor (recent low, major battleground)
•1.1450 – 1.1480
•1.1400 – 1.1420 (deeper target if broken)
Resistance:
•1.1580 – 1.1600 (immediate hurdle + moving averages)
•1.1640 – 1.1660
•1.1670 – 1.1700
What to Expect Next Week
The main event is the FOMC meeting (June 16–17), with the rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, June 17. Rates are expected to be held, but markets will scrutinize the dot plot, economic projections, and tone — especially with recent sticky inflation data.
Other notable data:
•US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Monday)
•Housing Starts & Building Permits (Tuesday)
•Retail Sales (likely Wednesday)
Weekend context: Optimism around a potential US-Iran/Middle East de-escalation (Trump comments) has provided some support for risk assets and a softer USD tone heading into Monday. This could limit immediate downside pressure at the open.
Bias & Scenarios
•Base case (most probable): Range-bound trading between 1.1500 – 1.1650, with volatility spiking around the FOMC.
•Bullish breakout (toward upper end or beyond): Weak US data + dovish-leaning Fed tone + confirmed de-escalation → move toward 1.1640–1.1680+.
•Bearish breakdown (toward lower end): Strong US data or hawkish Fed signals → test of 1.1500, with potential extension to 1.1450 or lower.
Overall short-term bias: Neutral to slightly bearish. The pair has struggled to sustain rallies despite the ECB’s recent rate hike, and USD resilience remains a factor until the FOMC clarifies the policy path.
This range accounts for typical weekly volatility around a major central bank event. Expect choppy price action, especially mid-week.
Note: Forex markets are event-driven — actual range can expand if surprises occur (strong data, hawkish/dovish surprises, or geopolitical developments). Always manage risk accordingly.
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

Really warms your heart seeing these two together ❤️
@Tony_BATtista @Tomunderwater #wearelossdog #oneluckydog
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว

#EURUSD
EURUSD Setup – 12 June 2026 🧵
Current price: ~1.1572
4H ATR: ~16 pips
My base view:
Expect a test lower first toward 1.1545, then a recovery push up toward 1.1620.
Scenario 1 – Dip first (most likely near-term)
•Quick move down to test 1.1560 → possible extension to 1.1545
•If 1.1545 holds → bounce back through 1.1570 toward 1.1600–1.1620
•Stop below 1.1520 if it breaks
Scenario 2 – Direct upside
•Strong reaction higher without deep dip
•Break above 1.1580–1.1600 opens path to 1.1620 quickly
•Next resistance cluster sits at 1.1660
Key driver right now:
Whatever comes out of Trump’s mouth on Middle East / tariffs / policy. One comment can flip the move fast.
Risk management is key — this is technical + news-sensitive. Not financial advice.
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Jack รีทวีตแล้ว
Jack รีทวีตแล้ว










