baseflwer

the tree of life was a flwer once 🌷

@moneyfetishist may just be too late- but i’m interested in learning how you learned to eloquently write your thoughts as comprehensive as you’ve done?

spent the last few hours answering questions from strangers on the internet while sitting on a plane and the thing that keeps striking me is how similar every question sounds once you strip away the context the BB analyst making $200K wants to know if his life has meaning. the 20-year-old in a frat wants to know if he is on the right path. the guy running a $15M environmental services company cannot sleep because his leverage ratio scares him even though his covenants are fine. the first-year law student wants someone to tell him the career pivot will work out. the immigrant who got laid off wants to know he is not falling behind permanently the details are different. the feeling underneath is identical. am I going to be okay we pretend that money and status and titles fix this. they do not. I sit in rooms with people who control nine-figure portfolios and they are nervous about the same things as everyone else. they just have more expensive language for it. the fund manager calls it "risk management." the analyst calls it "career strategy." the 20-year-old calls it "figuring out my path." same anxiety wearing different suits I watched a grown man worth more than most people will earn in ten lifetimes throw a tantrum in a conference room because someone questioned his assumption in a model. not his competence. not his track record. an assumption in a spreadsheet. a cell in Excel. he turned red and raised his voice because for 15 seconds he felt like he might be wrong about something and his entire identity could not absorb that possibility that is not a professional disagreement. that is a kid on a playground who got told he is not the fastest runner Schopenhauer wrote that humans are not rational beings who occasionally feel emotions. we are emotional beings who occasionally think rationally. the rationality is the exception. the feeling is the baseline. every framework we build in finance and in business and in life is an attempt to impose order on a brain that is fundamentally running on fear and desire and the need to be seen as competent by other people who are also running on fear and desire the most dangerous version of this is the person who thinks they have outgrown it. the one who believes that enough success or enough money or enough status has made them rational. that person is not more rational. they are less accountable. nobody around them pushes back anymore so the irrational impulses go unchecked and get rebranded as conviction and vision and leadership the best operators I know are the ones who understand that they are still unreasonable kids underneath everything. they lose their temper over small things. they take criticism personally even when it is constructive. they make emotional decisions and reverse-engineer a logical justification after the fact. the difference is they know they do this. they have systems to catch it. they hire people who are allowed to tell them when they are being stupid. they build in a 24-hour delay before any decision made while angry the worst operators are the ones who think they have evolved past it. they confuse pattern recognition with wisdom. they confuse wealth with emotional maturity. they confuse the silence of the people around them with agreement when it is actually just fear Nietzsche said that the most common form of human stupidity is forgetting what one is trying to do. I think the more common form is forgetting what one is. which is a complicated animal that learned to use spreadsheets but never stopped being afraid of the dark none of us outgrow being unreasonable. the question is whether we build a life that accounts for it or one that pretends it does not exist thanks for the questions today. you are all going to be fine. even the ones who do not feel like it right now

@izebel_eth I’m betting aggressively on hyperliquid..i want to allocate all my capital buying up dips instead of getting carried away on alternative assets like LIT. thanks for the reply.

@baseflwer all your money in single best idea is absolutely the best way to aggressively grow your portfolio (as long as your right) i did this 4+ times to come back from blowups but at current stage am more focused on consistency than aggression tbh, i feel like i graduated a bit

its not hyperliquid vs lighter its hyperliquid and lighter vs the drifts of the world

@izebel_eth jez, what happened with put all your money in your single best.. not your second best idea. Why are you approaching the perps trade differently in this regard specifically?

i am very specific about the exchanges i support, and i have large positions in each: 1. hyperliquid is the best, and i continue to support them and their ecosystem 2. lighter is #2 with retail advantage + specific tech advantages that i think will let it do spot collat best 3. variationals model is click trading + rfq = not fighting other exchanges for clob liquidity i fully believe the perp pie will grow enough that i will make money on all three

@N017_kng @Ashton_1nvests 👀

@Ashton_1nvests 👀

$SNAP is quietly becoming a cash flow machine… and most people still don’t see it. Free cash flow went from basically nothing to hundreds of millions in just a couple years. ~$35M in 2023 ~$219M in 2024 ~$400M+ recently That’s not normal growth. That’s a business inflecting. And it’s not just one good quarter either… Snap just printed over $200M in FCF in a single quarter. So what’s happening? The business is finally showing operating leverage. Revenue is growing Margins are improving Costs are becoming more efficient Now look at the estimates… They’re projecting steady growth out over the next few years. But honestly… those look conservative. Why? Because they’re not fully pricing in: - Snapchat+ scaling - Improving ad platform + AI targeting - Stronger international monetization - Continued operating leverage Now let’s address the biggest bear case: Stock-based compensation. Yes, SBC has been high. And yes, it creates dilution. But here’s what matters… The business is now generating real cash. That means Snap has flexibility. As cash flow grows, they can: - Offset dilution - Reduce reliance on SBC over time - Let operating leverage do the heavy lifting SBC is a concern if the business isn’t improving. That’s not the case here. The fundamentals are getting stronger, not weaker.

just a quick update: US and Iran conflict continues BTC less than 70k Global unrest worsens as Oil prices surge. I have started dipping my money back in. i’ll slowly start dca’ing here with a 1 year expiry.

head down. stay focused. holding/buying crypto will be by far the hardest decision you'll have to make over the next year or 2. "Doom and Gloom" propaganda will slowly grow as more people capitulate; saturating the timeline with dark and cynical views and beliefs. Those same people were optimistic and euphoric at the markets ATH so, don't regard their opinion. keep your head down. and grow you positions. and remember: "Price goes down at some point no matter the euphoria but, it goes up too, at some point, no matter the fear".

Q1 I’ll continue to be SHORT going into the first three months of 2026 my reasons are the BOTH the GOLD and SILVER rallies; to me these are indicators of fear. These assets are safe haven investments. So, it further demonstrates a fear in the markets. So, i’ll remain cautious and short. also with my contrarian view, many market participants are still overly optimistic which is good, but until bullish rallies are met with heavy resistance and pessimism. I’ll remain short. -baseflwer

@ChudCrentis 😭

Bro is everyone short?? I don’t see a single long on my timeline I mean I get it but…what is this PVE?

sometimes trading is far easier than many of us make it out to be. thats partly why the “nothing ever happens crowd” or the traders who remain patient across many months outperform. multiple times every year there are opportunities where it is clearly obvious where prices will be compared to where they are now. sometimes assets fall so low far below their lifetime low that buying at those levels is 70%-80% profitable all that said I was a $snap buyer.

@ChudCrentis wojak.

Alright hold on lemme get my glasses

@ChudCrentis we all have biases.. just 2 chuds tryna make it 😂

Very fair critique, and I do have the tendency to do the calculations and understand with the end result will look like, while not appreciating the time it takes to achieve it. So, you make a very good point! With this particular event, I do think that certain leverage areas from Trump’s opposition have either been neutralized or are well on their way to being neutralized. A couple weeks ago I was more pessimistic. But again, to your point, it may take much more time than I foresee. I wouldn’t be surprised if thats the case. My optimism blinds me at times 😁

@ChudCrentis curious how you see a pump here? or you’re just a perma bull

I do agree the crypto will find a bottom before equities. but i do find one thing unique about your perspective. i find you over estimate the capabilities of trump and underestimate the lengths/capabilities of his enemies and their ambitions. i believe perhaps for personal reasons…that the market will grind lower because this is just the beginning of many more escalations from tariffs -> ICE-> regime takeovers-> iran conflict-> cuba? there’s a lot that needs to be achieved under trumps regime and his enemies will play a significant role in disrupting and destabilizing those things time will tell but i don’t think sentiment bottoms here. iran may be resolved soon idk but it won’t stop there.

To be fair it looks awful But my thoughts are crypto bottoms before equities, and I think equities bottom within the next week or two. So we’d be in that timeframe where crypto would start its very uneasy grind higher Sentiment is absolutely abysmal, most folks are in the mindset of this war being as drawn out as something like Iraq. I actually think trump is working with Iran since the beginning of this conflict and when they decide to end this conflict it will wrap up way faster and cleaner than most people will imagine. Zero rate cuts are priced in for ‘26 but Trump/Bessent will never let that happen. The war has exposed Europe as a weak with an inability to be self-reliant for things like energy and a clearly diminished role in global policy. Investors in European bonds/equities will have capital flight, which will likely end up in US markets/treasuries. Ukraine war will wrap up very soon, as high oil prices crush Ukraine/Europe but generate massive profits for Russia. US will stop helping Ukraine “to focus on the ME”. So by May you could have a situation where you have no active wars occurring, a NASTY Q1 GDP print behind you and rate cuts back on the table. BTC could always go to 50k like everyone is predicting but i’d rather be accumulating spot here instead of shorting the hole. Of course I could be right about the political analysis and wrong about price action — happens a lot. But i think there’s enough of an edge for me here to bet on it

@CheekyPeebs @CrashiusClay69 nah mate

@CrashiusClay69 $maxxing coded

Study the 2M-10M range of what I’ve gotten into The golden life changing 1% of my following gets rich zone We are in it bros Some day it’s gonna pay off.

@N017_kng positioned in snap 🙈

@baseflwer Crypto bull run* Btw stonk bull run will resume once the war is over

90k before 150k

@N017_kng I believe that too. i’ve been a buyer since jan.

@baseflwer The next bull run will push it to ~200k imho Let’s see

@N017_kng monitor

Could end up being 40k-50k Monitor

@adeadmarket 11 likes…what is this

@chang_defi why is this a good thing?

LETS FUCKING GO

@RunnerXBT leave the markets then.

not only did Trump fuck children, now he will fuck every single person invested in stock markets with this pointless Iran war what a stone cold retard Trump is

True pain has not been realized yet

@meechie that’s a you problem G

i made people i dont know rich and forgot to take care of myself in the process round 2 is about to be a movie meechie mode