Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
There needs to be an end to the false expectations surrounding Israeli-Saudi normalization.
Let’s start with the semantic issue. Anyone familiar with the relationship between Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and the broader regional order understands that if normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia ever happens, it will not be branded as an extension of the “Abraham Accords.”
From the Saudi perspective, that is not a cosmetic or semantic matter. Riyadh will insist on its own framework, its own terms, and its own political narrative.
But that is the smaller issue.
To understand just how detached current normalization talk is from regional realities, it is worth reading the recent arguments made by Prince Turki al-Faisal and other influential Saudi voices.
In essence, the prevailing Saudi view today is that Israel has become a major source of regional instability, in some respects viewed as even more destabilizing than Iran. At the same time, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who sees himself as a central leader of the Arab world, is unlikely to move toward normalization without significant and visible progress on the Palestinian issue.
The reality is that renewed Saudi-Iranian accommodation is far more likely in the near term than Saudi-Israeli normalization. That may be uncomfortable for many in Washington and Jerusalem to acknowledge, but it reflects the region as it actually exists, not as some policymakers wish it to be.
Saudi Arabia will not agree to normalization in exchange for cooperation on Iran alone while the Palestinian issue remains unresolved. Contrary to the hopes of some in Israel and the United States, there was never a realistic path toward bypassing the Palestinian question on the road to broader regional normalization.
This is also why comprehensive peace agreements between Israel and countries like Lebanon or Syria remain highly unlikely under current conditions. Much of the regional diplomatic architecture ultimately runs through Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia is not prepared to legitimize a regional order that sidelines Palestinian aspirations.
From the Saudi perspective, Israel cannot indefinitely hold both ends of the stick, deepening control over the West Bank while simultaneously expecting the political and economic benefits of normalization with the Arab world. The sooner policymakers internalize that reality, the more grounded and effective regional diplomacy can become.
And this is true not only under Israel’s current government, but very likely under future governments as well. That is precisely why it is irresponsible to continue selling illusions to the Israeli public on this issue.
There is no serious regional pathway to normalization with Saudi Arabia that completely bypasses the Palestinian question. Repeating that promise over and over may serve short-term political narratives, but it does not change the strategic reality in the Middle East.
At some point, Israeli policymakers and the public alike will have to confront a basic fact: normalization with the Arab world, especially with Saudi Arabia, will almost certainly require meaningful movement on the Palestinian track. Not symbolic gestures, but substantive political steps.
Pretending otherwise may be politically convenient, but it only deepens the gap between expectations inside Israel and the diplomatic realities shaping the region.
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