DG

@GarrettPetersen my kids really like the Baloney and Friends series from Pizzoli!

I recommend this children's book. It is actually quite clever and funny.

@lymanstoneky link to the mathematical model used by PEPFAR and UNAIDS, although ultimately the calibration and specification of assumptions (# on treatment, condoms, PMTCT, PrEP, etc.) all influence the outcome. avenirhealth.org/software-spect…

@lymanstoneky Also, because they use mathematical modeling, their estimate almost certainly (although hard to confirm given transparency issues) includes future deaths. The model estimates HIV-infections averted this year or past years, and those are people who wouldn't die for several years

I have updated my PEPFAR model to capture effects of nonfocus spending rather than just aid spending; lives saved rise to 4.6 million from previously estimated 2.4 million. So better than yesterday's number, still 80% below State Department's number. substack.com/home/post/p-15…