dan crouch

In this short article I propose an alternative way to use P-values, for quantifying the probability of making an false-positive error in the future if one were propose that the alternative hypothesis was true based on the observed P-value pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

Interview with Yoav Benjamini. At around 5 minutes in he tells the story of how the False-Discovery Rate was published. It took 5 years of submissions and reviews, across three different journals, before it was accepted! m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGU4Sl…

Unlike traditional P-value interpretations, it provides an error rate that depends on the precise value of the observed P-value, but also does not require any Bayesian assumptions

The approach is to compute the chance of incorrectly finding further evidence for the alternative hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true, so I call it the 'False Evidence Rate'

In this short article I propose an alternative way to use P-values, for quantifying the probability of making an false-positive error in the future if one were propose that the alternative hypothesis was true based on the observed P-value pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

Our paper on empirical Bayesian ranking of effect sizes (in GWAS) is now published onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10… A short explainer thread on bluesky: bsky.app/profile/djmcro…

Something that happened to me a few times: a) design stats method, b) test on sims, c) worry for a long time when you notice it not performing perfectly, d) run 10x more simulations and realise the errors were noise Trust in frequentism: it works in the long run!

In this paper we argue that, in light of Mendelian genetics, Natural selection is best conceptualised as a scientific law, rather than a theory. academia.edu/articles/10.20…

@RuxandraTeslo My guess would be that this kind of unidentifiable 'normal' age-related decline is due to a large number of bengin tumours each inhibiting organ function a small amount. In aggregate, this results in decline in organ function, and this can probably occur across multiple organs

My great grandma died at 103 (a few yrs ago). She didn’t have any diagnosed condition of the kind that usually take away the life of old ppl. No cardiovascular disease, no cancer. It’s hard to say why she died, it seems like her body simply entered a state of generalised failure in the last 6 months of her life. A sort of “wasting away”. If we managed to avoid getting cardiovascular disease, cancer and maybe diabetes/ dementia, we’d end up probably all living to > 95 or so. But we’d still progressively lose function in the way my great grandma did. I think the task of ageing science is to isolate what this “progressive loss of function” actually means, independently of full blown cancer, CVD and/or dementia. Although this loss of function certainly predisposed to the above mentioned diseases, it’s something independent and upstream.

Whatever your historically based political sympathies, if you have even a shred of human decency you surely cannot morally justify Saturday's barbaric attacks on innocent civilians. “A plague o’ both your houses” is, for once, inappropriate.

@TivadarDanka (in some situations)

@TivadarDanka Great thread but this is rather loaded Frequentist estimations are not just 'enough' in some situations, they are arguably superior

The single biggest argument about statistics: is probability frequentist or Bayesian? It's neither, and I'll explain why. Buckle up. Deep-dive explanation incoming.

@jonatanpallesen This boils down to the anthropic principle. I've not thought of anything convincingly pro or against anthropic arguments (i.e. answering 'no' to your survey question), but intuitively they often seem reasonable to me.

If humanity survives and spreads into space, in the future there will be a lot of humans. There is an argument that goes like this: In this scenario, we would be among the first 0.001% first humans to exist. But it is a priori unlikely that we randomly happen to be among such a unique, tiny group. Therefore, from this alone, we can conclude that it is unlikely that this scenario will occur in the future. Do you think this argument is correct?

Is having even more gene-disease associations still useful for picking drug targets? For which types of programs does it matter? Has pharma shifted focus towards genetically validated targets? New paper by me, @mnelsonxy, @DongCoco90417, & @jivecast doi.org/10.1101/2023.0…👇

@BeardedGenius Christopher Hitchens

Do you work in biomedical #research? Do you also question your #antibodies? Dodgy antibodies waste time & $$$ + drive the reproducibility crisis. Let's talk about it! We've validated >50❗️Tau antibodies: rb.gy/jf247 Here's what we learnt & why it matters A 🧵 1/n

@doctorveera nice

"Here we propose a standardized approach for visualizing the effect size of risk variants across the allele frequency spectrum. The proposed plots have a distinctive trumpet shape ..."

@vsbuffalo Another related error: Science is affected by the politics of scientists -> science cannot be fully apolitical -> science should be fully political

I see this endless conflation between (1) science is not affected by the politics of scientists with (2) science ought not be affected by the politics of scientists. The former is a false statement. The latter is an argument about how science should operate.

@Luke0connor @Joni_Coleman @Nature @danweiner92 @NadigAjay thanks

@djmcrouch @Joni_Coleman @Nature @danweiner92 @NadigAjay We didn't look at this, but they did an analysis along these lines in Backman et al., looking at enrichment of exome-significant genes at GWAS-significant loci nature.com/articles/s4158…

So excited to share our work on the genetic architecture of rare coding variation, now published in @Nature nature.com/articles/s4158… This work was led by superstar co-first authors @danweiner92 and @NadigAjay

@vfsglobalcare thank you

@djmcrouch Hi Dan, please clear the cache, cookies & browser history. Restart the system and try again after 30 minutes. Highly recommended browsers - Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome. However, if you're still facing any issue, connect with us via DM. twitter.com/messages/compo…

@VFSGlobal We are having difficulty arranging two visa appointments at the Cebu UK visa centre. Whenever I select a free appointment time and progress to payment I get the message...