Lönnrot

11.3K posts

Lönnrot

Lönnrot

@drmtgr

Researcher in stat. physics/Finance/Python/Complexity econ (esp. supply chains&macro), halfway between a startup and academia

Paris เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2019
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Aghion Philippe
Aghion Philippe@Ph_Aghion·
Hot take that aged well: ✅ Nuclear = reliable, affordable, low-carbon ❌ "100% renewables" = impossible without storage ❌ Closing plants for political deals = not science Von der Leyen finally agrees. Only took 15 years and an energy crisis. lefigaro.fr/vox/economie/p…
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Óscar Martínez
Óscar Martínez@CronistaOscar·
Otra propagandista de la dictadura salvadoreña más que va a que le den el tour al Cecot y lo vende como un acceso exclusivo: ¡si hasta al más estúpido youtuber han paseado por ahí! Porque es la única cárcel que Bukele quiere mostrar. En las otras se tortura sistemáticamente.
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@LMichk C'est la critique que fait Kirman, la raison pour laquelle il a fait beaucoup de trucs empiriques sur des marchés réels et pourquoi il dit que Walras n'a jamais foutu les pieds dans un marché
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miche-quiche@LMichk·
Le premier truc à faire si tu veux apprendre comment une industrie, un marché, fonctionne, c'est de pas lire ce qu'écrivent les économistes universitaires sur le sujet, et de trouver un livre écrit par un insider qui a 30 ans de métier et essaye d'expliquer comment ça fonctionne
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
Don't get me wrong: the change in El Salvador has been astonishing. I wish all of Latin America was safe. But let's not play stupid either
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
This argument, as usual, rests on the strong premise that absolutely every individual imprisoned is guilty. Do you really expect this to be true in a region historically known for its corruption, political wars, etc and with a leader strongly suspected of doing murky deals?
Lina Seiche@LinaSeiche

CECOT has opened its doors to a small number of journalists and human rights advocates. They were given the opportunity to speak with an inmate. One asked him: “Are you okay? Are they treating you fairly? Tell me if not, I can help you.” Surely they extended that same pity, that same offer of help to the families of those he murdered? NGOs love to hate CECOT, a prison built to contain the worst kind of evil. Men who murdered dozens. Men who sacrificed children to the devil. Men who slaughtered fathers in front of their sons and daughters in front of their mothers. Men who now receive three meals a day, instant access to healthcare, and the undivided attention of organizations that don’t have a care for their victims. We had a chance to meet an inmate as well. He published a video of himself and his “homeboys” tying up 11 people by their hands and feet, lining them up face down on the ground, and hacking them into pieces with machetes while they cried in pain. As the warden recounted his crimes, the man was smiling. He was ordered to put on his face mask. He then continued smiling serenely behind his mask. NGOs love to hate CECOT for three simple reasons: → It’s famous, and they want in on the attention. → It’s the symbol of a paradigm shift they despise. → It’s safe. You are never going to see them visit gang-controlled prisons elsewhere on the continent, because they would get killed. But at CECOT, they’re safe. And they’re safe to smile in the face of the warden who invited them and then stab him in the back with a smear campaign the following day. Every time they try to free murderers on a technicality, every time they ask a killer if his bunk is too hard or his food is too bland, they spit on the graves of the innocent. And if they could, they would unlock the cells and turn El Salvador back into an open-air prison with 6 million inmates, all while they philosophize from afar about the poor, underprivileged Third World.

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Our World in Data
Our World in Data@OurWorldInData·
Until fifty years ago, Argentina was richer than Spain— (This Data Insight was written by @EOrtizOspina.) In a recent Data Insight, I wrote about how Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world at the beginning of the 20th century. Today, I want to follow up with a striking comparison between Spain and Argentina. The chart shows GDP per capita for Argentina and Spain over the last two centuries. These are historical estimates from the Maddison Project, and the data is adjusted for inflation and differences in the cost of living. When Argentina declared independence from Spain in 1816, the two countries had very similar GDP per capita. By the late 19th century, Argentina had become richer than its former colonial power, and it stayed ahead for many decades. Spain then started growing faster in the 1960s, and by the mid-1970s it had caught up. Continued economic growth in Spain after the 1980s drove the large gap we see today. It kept GDP per capita on a steep upward path into the 21st century. Argentina, by contrast, grew more slowly and went through several economic crises, visible on the chart. Today, Argentina’s GDP per capita is closer to my home country of Colombia than to Western European countries like Spain. This helps us see how much of a difference economic growth can make within just a few generations.
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@remilouf Tu n'allais pas open sourcer ton setup? ^^
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Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp·
When Copernicus proposed heliocentrism in 1543, it was actually less accurate than Ptolemy's geocentric model - a system refined over 1,400 years with epicycles precisely tuned to match observed planetary positions. It took another 70 years before Kepler, working from Tycho Brahe's unprecedentedly precise observations, replaced Copernicus’s circles with ellipses - finally making heliocentrism empirically superior. Terence Tao's point is that science needs a high temperature setting. If we only fund and follow what's most state of the art today, we kill the ideas that might need decades of work to surpass some overall plateau.
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Pianocktailiste
Pianocktailiste@pianocktailiste·
@drmtgr @ExAvocatine Eh ouais. La loi de programmation de la recherche insuffisante néo-libéralisme pas bien bouh méchants macronistes n'a pas que du mauvais.
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Pianocktailiste
Pianocktailiste@pianocktailiste·
@ExAvocatine Les thésards sont payés 2300€ brut par mois/1900 net après IR. Je pense vraiment pas que le niveau des bourses ministérielles soit encore le problème. Pour moi, la question est plutôt celle des débouchés : l'économie française, c'est le tourisme, les sacs à main et l'armement.
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@JohnHolbein1 Man, for some things the effect is so evident and the mechanism so clear... You don't always need thousands and thousands
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@RansonFelix celui sur le leverage cycle? Lol je peux t'en donner des refs aussi, arxiv.org/abs/1507.04136 (intéressant comme complément) mais je ne veux pas trop inonder les gens :p
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Félix RANSON
Félix RANSON@RansonFelix·
@drmtgr Bien reçu merci! Geanakoplos est au programme aussi😎
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
This weekend, a colleague of mine sent an extremely interesting article by an economist at the NY Fed that does what I feel is a formalisation (much better than what I would have been able to do) of a criticism on equilibrium models in economics that me and my colleagues who do
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@LMichk @FoncelJerome je connais des gens qui cherchaient dans la biblio comme ça! mots clefs dans google scholar, moi j'ai jamais trouvé ça très efficace (en plus de rarement avoir eu accès aux abonnements de journaux)
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miche-quiche
miche-quiche@LMichk·
@FoncelJerome @drmtgr C'est plus une blague, je pense pas que Google scholar ait jamais été une source d'information pour personne :))
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miche-quiche@LMichk·
Les jeunes utilisent de moins en moins Google scholar pour s'informer... 😞
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@LMichk nohate mais je n'ai jamais oh grand jamais utilisé google scholar pour autre chose que pour voir ce que des gens que je connais déjà avaient publié récemment
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Félix RANSON
Félix RANSON@RansonFelix·
@drmtgr Agreed! We will read it in our super cool reading group New and Old ideas in macro in 2 months!
Félix RANSON tweet mediaFélix RANSON tweet mediaFélix RANSON tweet media
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@DL_1980 @0xhauru Évidemment c'est un problème très particulier dans ce cas, mais ça montre le problème de la fragmentation réglementaire et fiscale européenne
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Lönnrot@drmtgr·
@DL_1980 @0xhauru Mais il y a aussi l'embauche : je parlais justement aujourd'hui avec le ceo de ma boîte. On est petits mais tous remote, avec plusieurs employés en Europe : ça fait *énormément* de trucs à gérer qui sont différents en termes de fiscalité employeur, etc
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hauru
hauru@0xhauru·
ca sert à quoi? quelle imposition s'applique? quel droit du travail? on cotise à quel système de sécurité sociale? pourquoi se concentrer sur les modalités techniques de création (durée et cout) plutôt que sur ces questions essentielles ?
BFM@BFMTV

"EU Inc.": Ursula von der Leyen annonce la création d'"un cadre unique pour les entreprises européennes" avec lequel "tout entrepreneur pourra créer une société en 48h, de n'importe où dans l'UE, entièrement numérisée pour moins de 100€ et sans capital social minimum" #BFM2

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ค้นพบ

@LMichk @EOrtizOspina @remilouf @pianocktailiste @ExAvocatine @JohnHolbein1 @RansonFelix @elonmusk